Show notes

• Hemp THC crackdown

• Congress passes language that effectively removes most high THC hemp drinks from legal commerce within about a year, with strict total THC caps per container.

• State attorneys general, alcohol trade groups and ongoing litigation increase compliance and portfolio risk for distributors and retailers carrying hemp beverages.

• Demand and consumer backdrop

• Consumer sentiment falls back toward twenty twenty two lows and more than a third of shoppers plan no alcohol purchase for Thanksgiving, with another quarter cutting back.

• GLP 1 adoption reinforces moderation trends as users cite alcohol as their top avoided item.

• Category performance

• Beer remains the main drag, with shipments near multi decade lows and recent four week scans showing high single digit volume declines.

• Core spirits segments are now in decline, while spirits based RTDs and non alcoholic alcohol grow in the mid to high teens or better.

• Wine works through a structural oversupply with vineyard removals, fewer wineries and a buyer starved M and A market.

• Trading down and mix shifts

• Premium fatigue is visible in tequila and other core spirits, with consumers trading into smaller packs and more affordable tiers.

• Sub premium beer is regaining share and private label wine is advancing as shoppers prioritize value.

• Corporate and capital moves

• Constellation cuts beer growth expectations and restructures, while still investing heavily in Mexican capacity.

• Diageo prepares for a new chair, Campari focuses on deleveraging, AB InBev launches a six billion dollar buyback, Boston Beer and Coca Cola Consolidated also repurchase shares.

• Ardagh’s recapitalization reduces packaging supply risk for can dependent categories.

• Channel and payment economics

• Warehouse clubs and ecommerce outperform while independents, craft breweries and smaller on premise venues feel strain.

• A proposed Visa Mastercard settlement offers minimal fee relief but enables surcharging and selective card acceptance, forcing new point of sale strategies.

• Compliance and legal risk

• Bribery and pay to play cases involving major suppliers, distributors and retailers signal tougher tied house enforcement ahead.

• Permit related litigation highlights operational exposure to regulatory delays for co packers and RTD producers.

• Health behavior and policy signals

• Rising GLP 1 use, additive free tequila scrutiny and National Academies anchored Dietary Guidelines point to a more cautious regulatory and consumer stance on alcohol into twenty twenty six.