**Week of April 27 – May 1, 2026**

### Distribution Upheaval

- **RNDC dissolution accelerates**: Columbia Distributing acquires Oregon/Washington/Alaska; Martignetti takes 13 control states + brokerage in 4 more; Reyes Beverage Group closing on 11 states by late May; Manhattan Beer acquires RNDC-Opici NY distribution rights; Great Plains buyer TBD; Illinois JV in flux

- **2,774 WARN Act notices** issued across six states; Strauss Borrelli launches investigation in South Carolina

- **Brown-Forman** completes historic 18 control-state distribution realignment — Johnson Brothers, Southern Glazer's, Superior Beverage, Great Lakes Wine & Spirits named

- **Southern Glazer's** adds Edrington's full portfolio (including The Macallan) in New York, effective June 1

- **Johnson Brothers** expands J. Lohr partnership across Indiana, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota

- **Southern Crown Partners** to acquire Milestone Beverage in South Carolina

- **BMO survey**: ~25% of US wineries lost a primary distributor in 2025; 36% in Napa County; ~50% currently seeking new partners

### M&A & Corporate Strategy

- **Pernod Ricard–Brown-Forman merger collapses** over share capital imbalance (50% Brown family vs. 14% Ricard family)

- **Sazerac** reported $15B bid for Brown-Forman ($32/share); separately signs exclusive US distribution deal with **818 Tequila** (Kendall Jenner)

- **Diageo CEO Dave Lewis** restructuring regional management; mid-May notifications expected; US spirits sales down 10.4% in latest Nielsen period; selling majority stake in East African Breweries to Asahi for $2.3B

- **The Wine Group** acquires **Phony Negroni** non-alc brand from St. Agrestis

- **Fat Brands** completes Ch. 11 auction: Hot Dog on a Stick ($8M to Amazing Brands), Elevation Burger ($2.5M to Kuwait franchisee group); 16 remaining brands via credit bid

### Earnings Highlights

- **Molson Coors**: Q1 profit $151.3M ($0.80/share), revenue $2.35B — beat on top and bottom line; volumes -2.9%; Fever-Tree and Topo Chico outperform; Q2 volumes guided -6% to -9%

- **Boston Beer**: Net loss of $145.3M (-$13.88/share) on Ardagh litigation charge; adj. EPS $1.64 (missed $1.96 consensus); revenue $433.9M; shipments -6.9%; full-year guidance lowered

- **Becle (Jose Cuervo)**: Net profit down 67%; North America volumes -24%; US tequila imports down 32% in 2025

- **MGP Ingredients**: Distilling Solutions revenue -40%; brown goods -56%; Limestone Branch and Lux Row distilleries paused; Penelope Bourbon +10%

- **Coca-Cola**: Organic sales +10% (beat 6.5% consensus); adj. EPS $0.86; full-year guidance raised to +8-9%

### Market Data & Scanner Trends

- **Beer BPI** surges to 59 — first expansionary reading in 21 months; all segments improve YoY

- **Beer scanner volumes** -1.4% L4W; -5.0% L2W (Easter distortion); ABI and Molson Coors outperform broader market

- **Total alcohol** dollar sales $8.1B (L4W ending 4/18), down 2.9% YoY; spirits -6.0%; wine -4.9%; beer -2.0%

- **Prepared cocktails** only growth category: dollar sales +4.4%; RTDs +28.8% per Jefferies tracker

- **Energy drinks** +7.5% L2W; Alani Nu (Celsius) +51.7%; Ghost +22%; Monster Ultra +11.2%

- **NABCA control state spirits** volume +1.2% MoM in March but dollar volume -1.6%; Scotch +11.4%

### Wine Sector

- **California acreage** down to 540K acres (-12% in two years); 21K+ acres removed in 12 months

- **Scanner data**: wine dollars -4.9%, volume -6.1% (L4W); Josh +4.7%, LaMarca +12.8%; Barefoot -6.1%

- **DtC**: March shipment value +5% YoY to $462M (first gain in 12+ months); avg. bottle price record $66.96; Napa +14% in value

- **Non-alc wine** only growth segment: +15.8% dollars, +11% volume

- **Fraud wave**: James Wellesley sentenced (10 years, $100M scheme); Patrick Briones guilty plea; Jeffry Hill sentenced

- SVB: wineries with "very weak" financial health nearly tripled since 2022

### Trade & Tariffs

- **Trump removes all whisky tariffs** (10% on Scotch/Irish whiskey + pending 25% single malt tariff) following UK state visit

- SWA estimated £4M/week in lost exports; American Whiskey Association hails "meaningful win"

- **Heineken** files suit against US government over tariff overpayment

- Strait of Hormuz disruption: crude at $119/bbl; shipping rerouted around Cape of Good Hope; urea costs +50%

### Regulatory & Policy

- **California AB 1585**: would require 100% US-grown grapes for "American" wine labels (currently 75% minimum); advances to Appropriations Committee; opposed by Wine Institute and Treasury Wine Estates (Penfolds)

- **NY wine-in-grocery debate**: Metropolitan Package Store Association + UFCW oppose; 50K+ jobs cited at risk

- **SNAP cuts**: payments -8% since November; 11% of US food/bev sales affected; California, NY, Illinois waiver expirations ahead

- **CT dram shop case**: $375K settlement for Hartley & Parker distributor liability case

- **WA AG sues** Albertsons/Safeway over $20M in deceptive BOGO pricing

- **WHO-backed** "3x35" initiative targeting 50% price increase on alcohol, tobacco, sugary drinks by 2035

- **First Citizens Bank** retiring SVB name in Q4 2026; wine lending division continues

### Consumer & On-Premise

- **Gallup**: US adult alcohol consumption at 54% — lowest in 90 years

- **On-premise** value velocity +5% YoY; ticket counts +7%; avg. check -2% (belt-tightening)

- **Amazon** now #2 US grocer; perishables sales +40x YoY; Prime Day moving to June

- **FIFA World Cup** (June 11–July 19): 48 teams, 104 matches, 75% on US soil; ~1B pint global uplift; ABI primary beneficiary (+0.52% volume)

- **Michigan spirits** sales down to $1.78B from $1.895B; cannabis substitution cited; Red Wagon Troy purchases -25.4%

- **Henkell Freixenet** non-alc products +18% in 2025; assumes Korbel global distribution

- **Gen Z** alcohol participation jumps 46% ? 70% in two years

- 42% of on-premise consumers likely to try mini cocktails

### Key Takeaway

The US beverage alcohol industry is experiencing a once-in-a-generation restructuring across distribution, demand, and consumer behavior. RNDC's collapse is redrawing wholesale geography. Prepared cocktails and RTDs are the only organic growth engine. Wine faces a structural correction. Spirits are contracting outside of value-oriented and RTD segments. Beer has the most constructive near-term setup heading into the FIFA World Cup. And the consumer — squeezed by inflation, drawn to non-alc alternatives and cannabis, and culturally embracing moderation — is fundamentally changing the demand equation for every player in this space.

**Week of April 20–24, 2026**

### Key Themes

- **Federal cannabis rescheduling** from Schedule I to Schedule III — the most significant US cannabis policy shift since state legalization began, with immediate financial implications for multi-state operators (Trulieve, Curaleaf, Verano, Green Thumb Industries) totaling ~$2B in potential 280E tax relief

- **Brown-Forman M&A battle** between Sazerac ($15B all-cash bid) and Pernod Ricard (80% stock / 20% cash merger of equals) — Brown family reportedly favors Pernod for strategic distribution access and greater ownership influence

- **Premiumization reversal confirmed** by IWSR: super-premium spirits value down 15% in 2025; total spirits value down 9%; first time volume outperformed value globally

- **Craft beer contraction deepens** — 5% production decline in 2025, 1,072 closures in two years — but early 2026 scan data signals potential stabilization

- **Consumer trade-down behavior accelerating** — pregaming revival, miniature bottle boom, and on-premise cost avoidance reshaping product demand

### Notable Stories

- **Tilray acquires BrewDog** for £33M out of administration (peak valuation: £2B); creditors owed £553.8M; plans for US expansion

- **Stone Brewing acquired by Duvel Moortgat USA / Firestone Walker** from Sapporo, which took a $91M goodwill impairment

- **Mark Anthony Group (White Claw) acquires Finnish Long Drink** — entering spirits-based RTD segment; FLD at $107.2M in off-premise sales (+23.2% YoY)

- **Pernod Ricard Q3**: US sales -12%; total organic +0.1%; exploring India subsidiary IPO that could improve Brown-Forman deal mechanics

- **KDP Q1 beat**: Adj. EPS $0.39 vs $0.37 consensus; US Refreshment Beverages +11.9% CC; Ghost brand contributing ~2pts; shares +7.5%

- **Heineken Q1**: US beer volumes declined mid-single digits on weak consumer sentiment

- **Diageo opens $415M Alabama manufacturing complex** — major US supply chain investment

- **Mississippi ABC distribution crisis**: 172,000+ cases backlogged, 25-day delivery times, panic buying, privatization debate intensifying

- **RNDC closes South Carolina facility** — 451 layoffs; major distribution tier disruption

- **East Coast frost devastation**: worst in a decade; PA vineyards reporting 70% bud destruction; VA seeing 80-90% crop loss

- **Treasury Wine Estates Americas**: US volume +9.1% in FQ3; restructuring to regional operations; shares +17%

- **Lofted Spirits (Bardstown Bourbon / Green River)**: brands +44% in 2025 but contract production scaling back; leadership change

- **Home distillation circuit split**: Fifth Circuit strikes down 1868 ban, Sixth Circuit upholds it — Supreme Court appeal expected

- **Hemp beverage regulatory deadline**: November 13, 2026 federal ban looming; multiple competing legislative proposals

- **North Carolina "Operation High Octane"**: 28 criminal summonses for illegal rare bourbon secondary market; four lobbyists indicted separately

- **$97M wine fraud conviction**: UK national sentenced to 10 years for fictitious Bordeaux Cellars investment scheme

- **California AB 1585** advances: would require "American" labeled wines to use 100% American-grown grapes

### Market Data Snapshot (4 weeks ending April 11, NIQ)

- **Total beverage alcohol**: -0.6% dollars / -1.3% volume

- **Beer**: flat dollars / -1.5% volume

- **Spirits**: -4.5% dollars / -3.9% volume

- **Wine**: -1.1% dollars / -2.8% volume

- **Prepared cocktails/RTD**: +6.7% dollars / +2.0% volume (sole growth category)

---

### Personnel Moves

- **Jack Edwards** ? SVP & Chief Sales Officer, Constellation Brands Beer Division (eff. May 18)

- **Barry Thompson** ? East Region President, Breakthru Beverage Group (eff. May 1)

- **Chris Miller** ? retiring, EVP Sales, Terlato Wine Group

- **Pete Marino** ? departing as President, Lofted Spirits (eff. end of June)

- **Bennett Glazer** ? passed away April 20; WSWA Executive Vice Chairman; architect of Southern Glazer's creation

**Major M&A & Corporate Moves**

- Sazerac tables $15B ($32/share) all-cash bid for Brown-Forman; Pernod Ricard pursuing parallel "merger of equals" talks; family governance structure is key differentiator

- Mark Anthony Brands acquires The Finnish Long Drink; spirits-based RTD pivot; brand posted +24% dollar and volume growth over trailing 52 weeks

- Uncle Nearest insolvent; receiver marketing all assets; $108M+ loan defaults; targeting going-concern sale by end of Q2

- Southern Glazer's integrates fine wine teams into Signature division; assumes national distribution for Frederick Wildman brands effective May 1

- Jackson Family Wines selects Reyes Beverage Group as exclusive distributor in seven markets tied to Reyes' pending RNDC acquisition

- Johnson Brothers expands Stoller Wine Group distribution to nine additional markets

- Baker Distributing acquires Calmont Beverage in Vermont; collapses state to two-distributor market; craft brands stranded

- Robert Foye takes ~A$1M stake in Treasury Wine Estates; pushes five-point turnaround plan focused on US market

**Earnings & Financial**

- Pernod Ricard cuts FY26 outlook to –3% to –4% net sales; US organic sales –12%; Q3 group sales €1.945B (–15% reported); travel-retail outlook reversed to full-year decline

- PepsiCo Q1 beat: revenue $19.44B (+8.5%); adjusted EPS $1.61 vs. $1.55 consensus; NA foods volume +2%; Gatorade brand refresh announced

- Boston Beer hit with $175.5M Ardagh verdict over aluminum can volume shortfall; plans appeal; holds $223M cash, zero debt

- Molson Coors faces aluminum cost headwind; TD Cowen cuts FY26 EPS to $4.58 (below consensus $4.72 and guidance); Hold, $43 PT

- Constellation Brands: new CEO Nicholas Fink emphasizes "builder to operator" shift; FY26 beer guidance (–1% to +1%) seen as conservative; Pacifico, Modelo Oro, Barrilitos highlighted

- Albertsons Q4 net loss of $480.8M on $600M opioid charge; FY26 identical sales guided flat to +1%

**Scanner Data & Market Performance**

- Easter week (ending April 5): spirits +16% holiday dollars; RTDs +13.1%; wine +9.2%; beer +6.1% — beer lagged all segments

- Q1 2026 off-premise: total beer dollars +1.2% YTD; volume –0.5%; Constellation +0.77 share points; A-B +0.14; Molson Coors –0.59; Boston Beer –0.33

- Fastest Q1 growers: Happy Dad +35.1%; Athletic Brewing +19.3% dollars, +25.5% volume

- Pacifico +38.5% Easter week; Michelob +16.9%; Smirnoff +15.7%; Cutwater +46%; BuzzBallz +20%

- Energy drinks: Celsius/Alani Nu +35.1% L2W (Alani Nu +97.7%); Monster +6.9% but –159bp share; Red Bull +6.4% but –175bp share

- CSDs: Coca-Cola +12.1% L4W vs. PepsiCo +0.6%; Easter week Coke +20.1%

- NA beer: +17% dollars and volume in Q1, moderating from +26% pace in Q1 2025

**Craft Beer**

- BA 2025 production data: craft volume –5.1% to 21.856M barrels; 481 closures vs. 300 openings; 1,072 closures over two years

- Sierra Nevada overtakes Boston Beer for #2 craft ranking; Athletic Brewing rises to #6

- Diageo (#5 overall via Guinness growth); Garage Beer and Tivoli Brewing debut in top 50

- Retail dollar sales –3.6% to $27.8B; dollar share held flat at 24.6%; employment –4% to ~189K

**Wine**

- US wine consumer spending hit record $115.33B (+2.5%) but volume fell –2.4% to 361.8M cases

- Wine DTC March value +5% to $462M; volume –4% (improving from –30% Jan, –14% Feb); Napa drove nearly all dollar growth

- Wine-at-home CPI: –1.3% YoY in March, deepening from –0.4% for full 2025

- Napa structural crisis: unsold Cab grapes, Alpha Omega foreclosure, Benessere Vineyards heading to auction, fallow vineyard recommendations

- Robledo Family Winery files Chapter 11

- Cognac NAFTA shipments –49% in March (vs. +34% Feb); XO –38%; Far East +12%

- E&J Gallo launches 200ml Tetra Pak; acquires Whiny Baby brand; 25% of wine drinkers using AI recommendations

- DRINKS partners with Forbes for Forbes Wine Club & Shop; Forbes Wine vertical launching summer 2026

- CA AB 1585: would require 100% American grapes for "American" label; bulk imports +19% in 2025

**Buffalo Trace / Ultra-Premium**

- Eagle Rare 30 unveiled at $12,500 SRP; oldest age-stated bourbon from Buffalo Trace; Bonhams auction April 24; broader release May

**Legal & Regulatory**

- FTC Robinson-Patman suit against Southern Glazer's continues; alleges systematic price discrimination favoring chains over independents

- Five former Southern Glazer's employees indicted for eight-year bribery scheme targeting Albertsons shelf placement

- Napa winemaker Jeffry Hill sentenced for AVA mislabeling fraud

- Fifth Circuit strikes down 1868 federal home distillery ban; Commerce Clause left unresolved

- Carnival found 60% liable, $300K awarded after 14-shot over-service incident

- WHO second industry dialogue: labeling, digital marketing, age verification focus

- Mexico Senate weighing mandatory cancer warning labels on alcohol packaging

**Consumer & Retail Trends**

- Core retail sales +7.05% YoY in March; six-month growth streak; avg. tax refund +11.1% to $3,521

- Numerator: 93% of consumers looking to save; 43% eating out less; 28% cutting grocery spend

- Goldman Sachs lowers 2026 discretionary cash inflow forecast to +4.2%

- Louis Jadot/Morning Consult: 56% of Americans dating less due to costs; 27% stopped entirely; wine purchase driven by taste and budget over prestige

- Wine Opinions: 20% of frequent drinkers drinking less; health concerns primary driver; decline concentrated in at-home consumption

- Nicotine pouches reach 29.3% household penetration; RBC finds 6–12% spending overlap with bev-alc — limited competitive threat

- 7-Eleven closing 645 NA stores; IPO delayed to FY2027; ~200 food-forward openings partially offset

- Chili's surpasses Olive Garden as #2 US casual dining chain; systemwide sales $5.5B (+20.6%); no new restaurants opened

**Mississippi Warehouse Crisis**

- State's sole wholesale warehouse dysfunction: ~174K cases stranded; five+ liquor stores closed; key brands unavailable for months; replacement facility not expected until 2027

**Vermont Self-Distribution**

- H.921 passed Vermont House: would allow brewers to self-distribute up to 5,000 barrels annually; legislature adjourns May 8

**Major M&A & Corporate Moves**

- Sazerac formally approaches Brown-Forman, competing with Pernod Ricard's existing merger-of-equals discussions; BF shares surge ~14%

- E&J Gallo acquires Four Roses Bourbon from Kirin for up to $775M — pivoting away from declining wine

- Molson Coors' Monaco Cocktails acquisition scrutinized as potentially too small to compete with AB InBev's RTD portfolio

- Southern Glazer's acquires Eagle Rock Distributing's Colorado operations; 514 jobs lost across six facilities

- No Sleep Beverage launches with three-brand roll-up: Whiskey Del Bac, Nine Banded Whiskey, Ume Plum Liqueur

- Scarlet Letter Beverage acquires Black Apple Cider brand assets

- Mitchell Wine Group completes ownership succession in Oregon

- Sazerac acquires Dirty Shirley RTD, names AJ Bond Distillery in Tennessee

**Earnings & Financial Performance**

- Constellation Brands beats Q4 estimates (adj. EPS $1.90 vs. $1.72 est.) but withdraws FY2028 guidance; wine & spirits revenue down 58%

- Casella Wines (Yellow Tail) posts first annual loss in 13 years at -$5.5M

- Treasury Wine Estates carries 60%+ share price decline and $649.4M interim net loss

- Penn Brewery files Chapter 11; continues operations

**Market Data & Consumer Trends**

- Q1 off-premise: total bev-alc dollars -1.5% YTD, volume -2.3%; RTDs the only growth category (+6.1% dollars YTD)

- Spirits steepest four-week decline at -5.7% dollars; wine volume worst at -5.6%

- 31% of restaurant operators report "severe" alcohol sales declines; 75% of consumers cite price as primary reason

- US adult drinking rate falls to 54% in 2025 — lowest in ~90 years of Gallup tracking

- Fine dining wine locations down 66%+ since 2017

- $40B e-commerce "discovery-to-purchase gap" identified by DRINKS platform

- Distributors prioritizing spirits (54%) and RTDs (46%) for portfolio additions; 62% cutting beer SKUs, 54% specifically cutting craft

**Category Spotlights**

- Craft beer reverses to negative in March after two months of gains; -0.3% YTD dollars

- Domestic beer reclaims 51% on-premise volume share; craft loses share in all four US regions

- Non-alcoholic beer: +9.5% dollars off-premise, +15.1% in Circana 12-week window

- Athletic Brewing: +20.7% dollars, +25.9% volume in four-week period

- Kentucky bourbon inventories at record 16.1M barrels; MGP idles two distilleries

- PepsiCo's Blue Cloud launches alcoholic Bubly, expands Hard Lipton Zero Sugar

**Regulatory & Legal**

- FTC v. Southern Glazer's tests Robinson-Patman Act enforcement standards

- DTC beer shipping supported by 63% of legal-age adults; legal in only 11 states + D.C.

- Mississippi ABC warehouse backlog at 170,000 cases; emergency legislation fails

- New York wine-in-grocery bills introduced; neither passed

- Tennessee mandates drug-testing strips at all bars; drink spiking now a Class D felony

- Revised metal tariffs restructured to full import value basis; 50% on primary metal goods

- SEC sues Drake's Organic Spirits founder for $2.6M in alleged sham sales

- San Antonio Winery files trademark suit over "Rosa 32" brand

- Molson Coors faces product liability suit over Miller Lite bottle defect

- Limestone Farms Distillery faces foreclosure; co-owner indicted

- Bang Energy founder blocked from selling Florida Keys property in ongoing fraud case

## SHOW NOTES

**Top Stories**

- **Pernod Ricard & Brown-Forman confirm merger talks** — potential $31B combined entity; Citi puts deal odds at 50/50; Jefferies projects $450M in synergies; governance and balance sheet challenges remain

- **E. & J. Gallo closes $775M Four Roses acquisition** — highest price ever for a Kentucky bourbon distillery; returns brand to US family ownership after 83 years

- **Diageo North America CEO Sally Grimes departs suddenly** — replaced by 30-year veteran John O'Keefe; comes as Diageo US spirits sales fall 11.6%

- **Southern Glazer's acquires ~22M ABI beer cases in under a year** — Clare Rose, Eagle Rock, and ABI's NY distributorship; building parallel beer empire

- **Reyes Beverage Group acquires RNDC operations across 11 markets** — names Brian Albenze as market president

**Market Data**

- US bev-alc volume fell 5% in 2025 (IWSR); off-premise dollar sales down 2.7% in latest 4-week period (NIQ)

- Spirits ex-prepared cocktails: -6.1% dollars, -4.8% volume

- Wine: -5.1% dollars, -5.9% volume

- Beer: -1.3% dollars, -3.0% volume (improving sequentially)

- Prepared cocktails: +5.4% dollars — sole growth category

- Spirits-based RTDs: +35% value, +36% volume

- RTD share of total bev-alc: 6% (2019) ? 13% (2025)

- Only 54% of Americans report drinking alcohol (Gallup — new low)

**American Whiskey**

- Production down 28% YoY through August 2025; lowest since 2018

- 16.1M aging barrels in Kentucky — all-time record

- Exports down 19% ($250M decline); EU exports -35%, Canada -70%

- Jim Beam, Diageo, Brown-Forman all curtailing production; MGP contract business cut by more than half

- Green River lays off head distiller; LF Heritage ordered into foreclosure; Goodwood seeks merger

**Flavored Bev-Alc Power Rankings**

- Top 10 vendors control 81.2% of dollar sales

- BuzzBallz: $794M (+50.1%); Cutwater: $585M (+100.5%); BeatBox: $413M (+31.4%); Surfside: $191M (+115%)

- High-ABV (8%+) sub-segment: 36.9% of total, up 19.3% to $5.5B

**Wine**

- California 2025 crush: 2.62M tons (above expectations); 18 months of supply projected

- 38M US beer/spirits drinkers cite taste aversion as barrier to wine

- DtC wines above $50 = 71% of total shipment value (up from 52% in 2020)

- Imported wine volumes down ~8% Oct-Jan vs. domestic wines down 3%

**M&A & Deals**

- Tilray completes BrewDog acquisition at £41M (~$54.5M)

- Firestone Walker acquires Trumer Pils US rights from Gambrinus

- Hood River Distillers acquires Crater Lake Spirits

- Constellation acquires remaining HOPWTR stake

- KDP completes JDE Peet's acquisition; planning separation into Coffee Co. and Beverage Co.

- Sysco acquires Jetro Restaurant Depot for $29.1B

- Breakthru Beverage enters hemp THC beverage distribution in Minnesota

**Key Consumer & Macro Signals**

- Jefferies Consumer Pulse: 89 (lowest since Nov 2023)

- 31% of drinkers cite financial pressure as moderation driver

- GLP-1 drugs: 23% of users drink less dining out; 39% drink less overall

- Gen Z unemployment: 9.2%; cocktail prices exceeding $20 dampening on-premise occasions

**Legal & Regulatory**

- Oz Trading permanently enjoined from counterfeit Modelo/Corona labels

- Tito's Vodka ordered to pay $749K Maine back taxes

- ABI pays $2.3M Fairfield brewery emissions penalty

- TTB recommends delaying Q1 2026 CBMA claims due to data error

- Colorado bev-alc fee bill defeated in committee

- Treasury Wine Estates: shares down 63%; near-$1B US asset write-down flagged

**Week of March 24–28, 2026**

**Top Stories:**

- **Pernod Ricard & Brown-Forman confirm active merger discussions** — potential "merger of equals" that would create joint #2 US spirits company; estimated $450M in cost synergies; Jefferies, TD Cowen, and ROTH weigh in on strategic logic, valuation, and Brown family governance hurdles

- **Uncle Nearest crisis deepens** — receiver seeks gag order and $75K sanctions against founder Fawn Weaver; $200M+ in total debts; employee resignations, distributor payment delays, and stalled asset sales

- **Stoli/Amber Beverage Group confirms loan default** — formal breach of loan note conditions amid sanctions, cyberattack fallout, Stoli USA insolvency, and declining global spirits demand

- **Molson Coors acquires Atomic Brands (Monaco Cocktails)** — boldest RTD move yet; Monaco is #5 US RTD brand with accelerating growth (+24.8% dollar growth in latest week); 70,000 retail doors; part of Horizon 2030 strategy

- **Tennessee Distilling Group acquires Waterford Distillery (Ireland)** — cross-border deal for distressed Irish whiskey assets; HSBC-appointed receiver facilitated sale

**Market Data & Trends:**

- NBWA Beer Purchasers' Index hits 50 — first expansion-level reading in 20 months; Imports (54), FMB/Seltzer (53), Below Premium (52) all above 50

- NIQ off-premise: total alcohol -2.7% dollars, -3.0% volume (L4W ending 3/14); Prepared Cocktails only positive category at +4.5% dollars

- NABCA February: spirits volume -1.4%, dollar volume -3.4%; wine volume -4.7%; RTDs and Tequila only positive growth categories

- US spirits tax-paid shipments -9.4% YoY in January — 15th consecutive month of moderation

- Non-alcoholic beverages +22% YoY, reaching $925M in off-premise sales; 92% of NA buyers still purchase alcohol

**Consumer Shifts:**

- LendingTree: only 56% of Americans currently consume alcohol; Gen Z at 53% non-drinking; 27% report drinking less YoY

- GLP-1 drugs: ~1 in 8 US adults currently on medication; JPM projects 30M+ users by 2030; potential $30B–$55B annual demand elimination

- On-premise vs. off-premise divergence highlighted at Constellation Gold Network Summit (HMSHost, Kroger, RaceTrac insights)

- Wine club growth decelerates to 2% (down from 11% peak in 2018); lifestyle-integrated models emerging (Ashes & Diamonds, Wente)

**Distribution Consolidation:**

- KEG 1 acquires Pine State Trading Co. (Maine/NH) — 7.9M cases, 350+ suppliers; second deal of 2026

- Southern Glazer's acquires Eagle Rock Distributing (CO) and Clare Rose (NY)

- Reyes to absorb RNDC operations across 11 markets (AZ, FL, TX, VA, DC, others) — closing by end of May

- AB InBev acquires Advance Beverage Company (Bakersfield, CA)

- Columbia Distributing acquires Point Blank Distributing (OR) — adds ~1M cases

- Teamsters Local 79 wins vote at SGWS Lakeland, FL facility

**Wine Industry:**

- US winery count falls 3% — first broad decline in decades; CA crush smallest since 1994

- Willamette Valley Vineyards: net sales -6.5%, operating income swings to -$1.4M loss

- Roco Winery (Marzotto family) acquires Francis Ford Coppola's Domaine Lumineux in Dundee Hills, OR

- Silicon Valley Bank projects "bumpy bottom" in wine demand around 2027–2028

**Other Notable Stories:**

- Celsius Holdings: stock -18% in past month; Citi calls it a buying opportunity; SKU rationalization driving short-term scanner data weakness; Costco Kirkland launch seen as limited threat

- Fever-Tree: profit -16% in FY2025; US revenue +6% at constant currency; Molson Coors partnership positioned as growth lever; non-tonic products now 45% of revenue

- BofA commodity trendspotter: spot inflation +3.7% YoY, geopolitical risk not yet reflected

- ADI/DISCUS launch "Ship My Spirits" DTC campaign; Iowa bills advancing

- DTC beer shipping survey: 81% of craft drinkers support expanded access; 72% would spend $50+/month

- Michigan AG sues Buon Vino LLC for unlicensed wine shipping — 84 confirmed violations, $25K per violation sought

- Bardstown Bourbon Co. files counterclaim against former HR VP

- TGI Fridays bankruptcy: court approves solicitation of creditor votes; confirmation hearing May 1

- ACSA: founding CEO Margie Lehrman retires; Emily Pennington named new CEO effective May 1

- NABCA: Kristin Beltzer (Michigan LCC) elected incoming Chair-Elect

- U. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment: 55.5, down from 56.6; inflation expectations stall at 3.4%

**Key Takeaways:**

1. The Pernod–Brown-Forman merger talks and Molson Coors' Monaco acquisition both signal that the era of organic growth in US beverage alcohol is giving way to an M&A-driven consolidation cycle across spirits, beer, and RTDs.

2. Spirits sector distress (Uncle Nearest, Stoli, Amber, Waterford) is systemic — creating both brand exposure risk and acquisition opportunities for well-capitalized operators.

3. Beer's BPI recovery and RTD resilience contrast sharply with ongoing spirits and wine volume declines, suggesting a widening performance gap between categories.

4. GLP-1 drugs, generational sobriety trends, and macro confidence erosion represent compounding structural headwinds that will reshape demand over the next 3–5 years — requiring portfolio diversification, non-alcoholic investment, and DTC channel development now.

5. Distribution consolidation (KEG 1, SGWS, Reyes, AB InBev) is accelerating and compressing the independent distributor landscape, making route-to-market control an increasingly critical competitive advantage.

**Major Themes This Week:**

- **Distribution consolidation accelerates:** Reyes Beverage Group expands RNDC acquisition to 10 states plus D.C.; SGWS acquires Clare Rose on Long Island; A-B InBev acquires Advance Beverage in Bakersfield, CA; SGWS faces federal indictment of former executives

- **Off-premise sales still declining:** Total alcohol dollars down -2.4% (NIQ 4-week) to -3.4% (TD Cowen 2-week); spirits ex-RTDs deepest at -6.6%; wine -5.3%; beer most resilient at -0.8%

- **RTDs are the only growth category:** Prepared cocktails +5.4% in dollars; Cutwater +116.3%, Surfside +240.3%, BuzzBallz +32.3%

- **Non-alcoholic beer surging:** +18.1% in latest Circana week, +9.1% in NIQ 4-week data

**Notable Company Moves:**

- **Constellation Brands:** Modelo accelerated to +6.9%, Pacifico +33.2%; Jefferies raised price target to $162; Hispanic consumer sentiment improving

- **Tilray:** Acquiring BrewDog's US assets (Columbus brewery/pubs, Las Vegas brewpub), completing global BrewDog brand ownership

- **Sazerac:** Acquired Dirty Shirley RTD brand, adding to portfolio alongside BuzzBallz, Buffalo Trace, Fireball, Southern Comfort, SVEDKA

- **Boston Beer:** New $25M share buyback plan; $50M total with prior plan; ~$215M remaining on $1.6B authorization

- **Brown-Forman:** Named Jim Peters (ex-Whirlpool) as new CFO, effective March 31; focus on operational discipline

- **Diageo:** New CEO Dave Lewis receives first LTIP; Jefferies models -12% North America EBIT in F27; shares at 25% discount to staples peers

- **Celsius/Alani Nu:** Combined share gained 141 bps to 15.7%; Alani Nu alone +58.9%

**Supply & Trade:**

- **California grape crush:** 2.76M tons — lowest since 1994; 23% below 5-year average; 57,000 acres removed; crop value down 16% to $2.414B

- **Italian wine exports to US:** Down -9.2% in value; H2 2025 down -23%; bottled red wine -28%

- **US TBA inventories:** Hit lowest level since Sept 2022 but remain 37% above 2019 average; prolonged normalization expected

**Consumer & Macro:**

- **Health-forward demand:** 58% of consumers scrutinize ingredients; 52% pay premium for wellness; 66% choosing lower-sugar options (EY survey)

- **NRF projects +4.4% US retail sales growth** in 2026 to $5.6 trillion; premium segments expected to outpace value

- **Scope Ratings:** Beer industry in "long-term structural stagnation"; pricing power exhausted

**Regulatory:**

- **New York wine-in-grocery legislation** faces unified opposition from UFCW and Metropolitan Package Store Association

**Legal:**

- **Uncle Nearest:** Bankruptcy petitions dismissed; receiver alleges $200M+ in debt; potential $75K sanctions against founder Fawn Weaver; receivership expansion pending; defamation countersuit filed

**Key Themes This Week:**

- US alcohol consumption hits record-low 54% of adults; structural demographic shift, not cyclical downturn

- Off-premise dollar sales declining across nearly all segments; prepared cocktails and RTDs the sole growth category

- Non-alcoholic beer continues double-digit growth but shows early signs of maturation

**Major Company Moves:**

- **Reyes Beverage Group** expands RNDC acquisition to 11 states (adding AZ, CO, LA, OK, TX); closing expected May 2026

- **Tilray Brands** acquires global BrewDog brand, Scottish brewery, and 11 UK pubs for ~$44M (~$66/bbl)

- **Diageo** outlines RTD-first growth strategy under new CEO Sir Dave Lewis; meaningful results not expected before FY2027

- **Brown-Forman** downgraded by Bernstein to Market Perform; wins Sixth Circuit labor ruling invalidating NLRB Cemex standard

- **A-B InBev** shares near five-year highs; spirits portfolio now 3% of US revenue, growing at 2x category rate

- **Boston Beer** closing Angel City brewery in LA (66 layoffs); brand sale has not materialized

- **Mercer Wine Estates** acquires four Washington wine brands from Avallé

- **Johnson Brothers** expands distribution partnership with Maisons Marques & Domaines into Colorado

- **Barboursville Vineyards** (VA) sold to investor group at 50th anniversary

**Wine Industry Crisis:**

- $1B+ revenue loss in 2025; ~6M case production drop; CA vineyard footprint down to ~477K acres

- Jackson Family Wines, E&J Gallo, Mission Bell Winery closures and layoffs

- DTC shipments fell 10% in 2024 — steepest decline ever recorded

- Wine at-home CPI in deflation at -1.5% YoY

**Craft Beer Update:**

- YTD craft dollar sales cooled to +0.3% (from +2.3% in Jan); volume now -1.6%

- Olfactory Brewing (SF) and Rotten Little Bastard (SC) filed Chapter 7 bankruptcy

- Standouts: Voodoo Ranger Fruit Force (+59.7% L4W), Georgetown Bodhizafa (+17.5%), Athletic Brewing (+18.3%)

**Legal & Regulatory:**

- Federal grand jury indicts five former Southern Glazer's employees in Albertsons bribery scheme (2016–2024)

- Uncle Nearest receivership deepens; Jay-Z's $20M secret loan surfaces; Farm Credit alleges fraud; federal ruling pending

- SCOTUS poised to rule on Arizona DTC wine shipping law

- New York opens retail-to-retail wine and liquor sales (up to 6 bottles/week)

- Florida Supreme Court ends 2026 cannabis ballot initiative

- Sixth Circuit Ream v. Treasury case could legalize home distilling

**Macro & Consumer Data:**

- Feb nonfarm payrolls: -92K; unemployment: 4.4%; CPI near 3%

- Wells Fargo expects 50bps of Fed rate cuts (June, September)

- NFIB Small Business Optimism declined for second straight month

- Kroger, Costco, BJ's post mixed retail results

- PwC: consumers willing to pay ~9.7% sustainability premium

- University of Evansville study: alcohol brand associations are culturally learned, not physiological

**Big Takeaways:**

1. Portfolio diversification across RTD, NA, and spirits is now a structural imperative — not a growth strategy

2. Wine's contraction is simultaneous across DTC and traditional distribution; surviving producers must pivot to experiential and premium DTC models

3. The Reyes-RNDC deal reshapes middle-tier economics across 11 states; affected suppliers must engage proactively before May close

4. Legal and compliance risk is elevated on multiple fronts; TTB trade practice enforcement should be treated as an active organizational priority

**Key Themes This Week:**

- Structural US alcohol market contraction deepens across spirits, beer, and wine

- RTD/Prepared Cocktails surge 30%+ as the only consistent growth category

- Southern Glazer's federal bribery indictment sends shockwaves through distribution

- Diageo abandons premiumization playbook; cuts hospitality team and dividend

- Tequila growth story stalls: Casamigos -24%, Jose Cuervo -15%

- Wine industry in worst structural correction in decades

**Major Corporate Moves:**

- AB InBev closes BeatBox acquisition for up to $490M

- Four Loko parent Phusion Projects exploring ~$400M sale via JPMorgan

- Tilray acquires BrewDog global IP and UK operations for £33M

- Brown-Forman ends Pabst FMB partnership, brings RTDs in-house

- Constellation Brands targets 75M cases for Pacifico by 2030

**Earnings & Financial Highlights:**

- Brown-Forman Q3 beats estimates but flags 100-150bps FY27 margin headwind; shares hit 52-week low

- Becle Q4 net sales -14.1%; US/Canada revenue -8.4%

- Campari full-year organic sales +2.4%; adjusted operating earnings +5.3%

- Monster Beverage writes off $232M of $330M CANarchy investment

- Treasury Wine Estates takes ~$550M US impairment

**Market Data (NIQ through Feb 21):**

- Total alcohol: -2.3% dollars, -3.3% volume

- Spirits ex-RTD: -4.9% dollars, -3.7% volume

- Beer/FMB/Cider/Seltzer: -2.2% dollars, -3.8% volume

- Wine: -3.8% dollars, -5.1% volume

- Spirits-based RTDs: +30.3% dollars, +33.5% volume

- Energy drinks: +16.6% dollars, +10.2% volume

**Brand Standouts:**

- Cutwater +160%, Sun Cruiser +247%, Surfside +87% (RTD)

- Pacifico +19% volume (7th consecutive year of double-digit growth)

- Victoria +16% depletions; Michelob Ultra +4.4%

- Alani Nu +81.1% (energy); Ghost Energy +37.6%

- Bud Light -9.7%; Heineken Original -13%; Casamigos -23.8%

**Wine & Spirits Industry Distress:**

- 40,000+ California vineyard acres targeted for removal

- Gallo, Constellation, Jackson Family all closing facilities

- Breakthru Beverage: 500 layoffs; Speyside Bourbon Cooperage: facility closure

- Uncle Nearest: $220M+ in alleged debts; receivership deepens

- Aloria Vineyards files Chapter 11; Arista Winery ends production

**Consumer Trends:**

- 54% of US adults report drinking — lowest in ~90 years

- Weekly consumption: 2.8 drinks, lowest since 1996

- 53% believe moderate drinking is harmful (up from 28% in 2018)

- Private label liquor unit sales +4.4%; Gen Z share rising rapidly

**Regulatory & Legal:**

- TTB issues AI advertising guidance for beverage alcohol

- Bardstown Bourbon faces whistleblower discrimination lawsuit

- Mississippi ABC warehouse disruption strains retailers statewide

- Former Napa winemaker sentenced for appellation fraud

**Key Themes This Week:**

- US bev-alc market showing tentative recovery; January 2026 comps turned positive for first time in over a year

- RTD cocktails dominate growth: spirits-based RTDs +39.4%, wine-based RTDs +23.7%

- Premium spirits correction deepening: Diageo US sales -6.8%, MGP brown goods -52%

- Generational consumption shift accelerating; binge drinking among 21-34 year olds down ~3.9 million people over decade

- Regulatory uncertainty compounding across THC, tariffs, distribution, and state-level wine sales

**Notable Stories:**

- **Diageo** — New CEO Dave Lewis plans sweeping leadership overhaul; halves dividend; signals pivot away from premiumization; shares drop ~13%

- **MGP Ingredients** — FY25 sales collapse 24%; 2026 guidance misses consensus by wide margin; shares fall 21% intraday

- **Uncle Nearest** — Receivership escalates; ~$200M total debt; emergency asset sales underway; March federal court ruling expected

- **Stoli Group** — Amber Beverage Group confirms default; no permanent CEO since July 2025

- **Molson Coors** — Horizon 2030 strategy with $450M savings program; BofA downgrades to Underperform; M&A targets discussed

- **Boston Beer** — Q4 loss narrows; gross margin improves 360bps; 2026 guidance below consensus; tariff uncertainty flagged

- **Celsius Holdings** — Q4 revenue +117% YoY on Alani Nu strength; competitive pressure on bev-alc among younger consumers

- **Southern Glazer's & Breakthru Beverage** — Both announce workforce reductions

- **THC beverages** — Federal ban effective November 2026; industry mobilizing for legislative fix before summer recess

- **US wine exports** — Collapse 33.5% to $850M; Canada exports down 76.8%

- **California wine** — Major closures at Jackson Family Wines, Gallo, Foley, Constellation; Treasury Wine Estates pauses dividend

- **NA beer** — Growth decelerating; Michelob Ultra Zero +210%, Athletic Brewing holds lead but growth slows

- **Convenience stores** — Spirits +5.4%; THC beverages +134% to $200.5M; retailers cutting alcohol SKUs for THC shelf space

- **Supreme Court tariff ruling** — IEEPA authority struck down; effective rate drops to ~13%; Section 301 investigations pending

- **KDP/JDEP** — Acquisition targeting early April close; ~$9B debt, $8.5B equity, $4.5B convertible preferred

- **Key brand performers** — Cutwater, BuzzBallz, Surfside, BeatBox, Sun Cruiser (RTD); Modelo, Pacifico, Michelob Ultra (beer)

- **Distribution** — Barton & Guestier signs five-year exclusive with Southern Glazer's; Mississippi ABC warehouse in crisis

- **People** — Daniel Duckhorn passes at 87; Melanie Batchelor named William Grant US President; Robert Cullins elevated at Illva Saronno; Brandon Lieb named Aguasol CEO

- **Retail** — Sprouts Farmers Market plans 40+ new stores; NY wine-in-grocery legislation opposed; CA distribution law challenged

- **Compliance** — TTB "bottle marrying" prohibition gains national attention; risk reminder for on-premise operators

- **Wholesale inventories** — 43% above 2019 average per Evercore ISI; inventory-to-sales ratio remains elevated

**Big Takeaways:**

1. RTDs are redefining the volume story — growth is concentrated among scaled brands with major distribution networks

2. The US spirits correction is deeper and longer than consensus; MGP's guidance suggests no bottom until at least mid-2027

3. Regulatory and trade headwinds are compounding — THC ban, tariffs, state-level battles all demand proactive engagement

4. The generational shift away from alcohol consumption is structural, not cyclical — energy drinks, fitness, and moderation are permanent competitive forces