Show notes
• Hemp THC crackdown
• Congress passes language that effectively removes most high THC hemp drinks from legal commerce within about a year, with strict total THC caps per container.
• State attorneys general, alcohol trade groups and ongoing litigation increase compliance and portfolio risk for distributors and retailers carrying hemp beverages.
• Demand and consumer backdrop
• Consumer sentiment falls back toward twenty twenty two lows and more than a third of shoppers plan no alcohol purchase for Thanksgiving, with another quarter cutting back.
• GLP 1 adoption reinforces moderation trends as users cite alcohol as their top avoided item.
• Category performance
• Beer remains the main drag, with shipments near multi decade lows and recent four week scans showing high single digit volume declines.
• Core spirits segments are now in decline, while spirits based RTDs and non alcoholic alcohol grow in the mid to high teens or better.
• Wine works through a structural oversupply with vineyard removals, fewer wineries and a buyer starved M and A market.
• Trading down and mix shifts
• Premium fatigue is visible in tequila and other core spirits, with consumers trading into smaller packs and more affordable tiers.
• Sub premium beer is regaining share and private label wine is advancing as shoppers prioritize value.
• Corporate and capital moves
• Constellation cuts beer growth expectations and restructures, while still investing heavily in Mexican capacity.
• Diageo prepares for a new chair, Campari focuses on deleveraging, AB InBev launches a six billion dollar buyback, Boston Beer and Coca Cola Consolidated also repurchase shares.
• Ardagh’s recapitalization reduces packaging supply risk for can dependent categories.
• Channel and payment economics
• Warehouse clubs and ecommerce outperform while independents, craft breweries and smaller on premise venues feel strain.
• A proposed Visa Mastercard settlement offers minimal fee relief but enables surcharging and selective card acceptance, forcing new point of sale strategies.
• Compliance and legal risk
• Bribery and pay to play cases involving major suppliers, distributors and retailers signal tougher tied house enforcement ahead.
• Permit related litigation highlights operational exposure to regulatory delays for co packers and RTD producers.
• Health behavior and policy signals
• Rising GLP 1 use, additive free tequila scrutiny and National Academies anchored Dietary Guidelines point to a more cautious regulatory and consumer stance on alcohol into twenty twenty six.