**Key Themes This Week:**
- Broad-based U.S. volume declines across beer (-5.9% full-year shipments), spirits (-7% value), and wine (DTC -14% volume in OR/WA)
- Distribution tier structural contraction: Breakthru cuts ~500 jobs; RNDC shed 1,700+ in past year; Reyes in active talks for further consolidation
- RTD cocktails as the dominant growth engine: +7.1% dollar sales (NIQ), +35.2% value growth and +382 bps share gain (Jefferies)
- K-shaped consumer spending visible across every category and channel
**Major Earnings & Financial Results:**
- **Pernod Ricard:** H1 revenue €5.26B (-14.9% reported, -5.9% organic); U.S. sales -15% vs. consensus -13%; global headcount reduced by ~2,400
- **Molson Coors:** Q4 net sales $2.66B (-2.7%); U.S. depletions -5.1%; FY26 EPS guided -11% to -15% YoY — shares fell 7.4%
- **Heineken:** U.S. net revenue down high-single digits; U.S. volumes down low-teens; planning 5,000–6,000 global job cuts over two years
- **Treasury Wine Estates:** A$770.5M U.S. asset impairment; A$649.4M statutory loss; dividend paused
- **Suntory:** Alcohol sales -0.4% to ¥1.38T; pausing Kentucky Beam campus production through end of 2026
- **Brown-Forman preview:** Citi expects organic sales -3.6%, EPS $0.46 for fiscal Q3 (reports March 4)
**Distribution & Route-to-Market:**
- Breakthru Beverage: ~500 layoffs across FL, IL, CO and other markets
- RNDC: 1,700+ cuts in 2025; exited California; additional cuts in IN, WA, OR; Becle (Jose Cuervo) exited RNDC near-nationwide
- Reyes Beverage Group in "active discussions" with RNDC across six states + D.C.
- Hand Family Companies formed Sunset Distributing (Stone + Classic Beverage + Scout) in SoCal
- NBWA survey: Distributors expect beer to drop from 76% to 67% of portfolios within five years
**Wine Sector Distress:**
- Gallo closing Ranch Winery (St. Helena); 93 total jobs cut across five CA locations
- Trinchero listing Haystack (Atlas Peak) and Clouds Nest (Mt. Veeder) vineyards for sale
- Foley Family Wines closed Chalone Vineyard's Soledad facility; laid off entire winemaking staff
- Vineyard/winery transaction market projected at less than half of 2021's ~$3.5B volume
- DTC bright spot: $200+ Cabernet +14% value; $10,000+ bottles +28% YoY
**Strategic Moves & Deals:**
- Tilray signs five-year U.S. licensing deal with Carlsberg Group (Carlsberg, Kronenbourg 1664, others) effective Jan 2027
- Hotaling & Co. closing Pier 50 distillery; pivoting to import/brand-building model
- Stoli Group: founder Yuri Shefler steps in as interim CEO; Amber Beverage Group confirms loan default; U.S. ops and Kentucky Owl in bankruptcy
- Oregon Beverage Collective formed; Crux Fermentation acquired by Cascade Lakes owners (~40K barrels combined)
**RTD & Emerging Categories:**
- RTD cocktails: only growing major segment in NIQ data (+7.1% dollars); 36.2% of on-premise packaged volume
- Top RTD performers: Cutwater +114.7%, Surfside +223.5%, Sun Cruiser +349.5%, Buzzballz +41.8%
- Non-alcoholic beer: 5.4% of on-premise packaged share (+1.4 pts); 94% of distributors added NA suppliers in past year
- THC beverages: Indeed Brewing at 15–20% of volume, 25–35% of revenue; Scofflaw expects THC >50% of revenue
**Regulatory & Legal Updates:**
- **New York:** SB 9220 would allow liquor retailers to sell THC beverages (=5mg/serving); separate bill would allow grocery stores to sell wine and liquor
- **Iowa:** HF 2403 advances to end state liquor distribution monopoly (13-8 committee vote)
- **Maryland:** Legislation introduced to allow grocery beer and wine sales
- **Illinois:** Considering lowering BAC limit from 0.08 to 0.05
- **Kentucky:** HB 612 would add 4% license fee on top of 6% sales tax (10% effective rate)
- **Mississippi:** ABC warehouse software failure causing weeks-long supply crisis statewide
- **Federal:** Supreme Court asked to resolve wine retailer shipping ban circuit split (Day v. Henry)
- **TTB:** FD&C Red No. 3 ban in alcoholic beverages; reformulation deadline January 15, 2027
- **Hemp/THC:** Congressional decision window approaching on whether to regulate hemp beverages under three-tier system
**Consumer & Retail Signals:**
- Walmart fiscal Q4: $190.66B revenue; U.S. comps +4.6%; e-commerce +27%; CFO flags K-shaped income pressure
- CPI: Alcohol-at-Home +0.6% YoY; Alcohol-Away-from-Home +3.6% — retail pricing power eroding
- Restaurant traffic: 5 consecutive months of decline; 75% of diners prefer smaller portions for less money
- GLP-1 adoption estimated at 12% of Americans, impacting portion sizes and occasion frequency
- American Whiskey Association pushes back on "glut" narrative; ~16M barrels aging in Kentucky; global market ~60–62M 9L cases
**On-Premise Data (BeerBoard 2025 Year in Review):**
- Total on-premise revenue -0.6%; volume +0.1%
- Draft: light lager dominant at 43.5% share (+1.4% volume); IPAs -8.5% volume
- Spirits: agave 30.4% share (+0.5 pts); vodka -1.4 pts; rum -3.9 pts
- Packaged: RTD cocktails 36.2% share (+1.7 pts); NA beer 5.4% share (+1.4 pts)
