Market pulse

• Beer BPI at 24, 11 months of contraction. Q3 on-premise: draft –1.8%, packaged –5.1%.
• Off-premise week ending Oct 26: TBA –5.5% YoY; beer –7.2%, wine –4.5%, spirits flat. Premixed cocktails +34%.
• September domestic beer shipments +1% YoY, but YTD –5.1%.

Share movers and bright spots

• Draft leaders: Michelob Ultra, Miller Lite, Coors Light, Modelo Especial, Bud Light.
• Gainers: Pacifico, Blue Moon, Busch Light; in retail, Pacifico, Guinness, Athletic NA, Angry Orchard, Goose Island.
• RTD velocity leaders: High Noon, Surfside, Sun Cruiser, Nütrl; scan data understates independents.

Spirits and whiskey

• MGP Q3 down on elevated barrel inventories; industry whiskey production cut sharply.
• SipSource outlook: spirits –~4% per quarter into 2026; tequila least bad, Cognac/brandy lag.
• Whiskey barbell: entry level soft, premium more resilient; flavored whiskey, rye, single-malt pockets of growth.

Innovation and portfolio

• New-item dollars –21.6% YTD; SKUs –41% vs 2023. Fewer, smaller hits.
• Supplier moves: Molson Coors impairment and reset; AB InBev execution + $6B buyback + Netflix tie-up.

Policy and trade

• TTB shutdown halts labels/permits/formulas; expect bottling and launch delays.
• SCOTUS tariff case keeps import pricing volatile into 2026.
• Hemp beverages: split between prohibition vs regulation; push for parity frameworks.
• Whiskey trade asks: zero-for-zero tariffs, fix Canada provincial impacts.

Route-to-market and operations

• Southern Glazer’s acquires AB’s NYC distribution; faster RTD execution expected.
• NY stricter DWI law; Hooters founders reacquire brand; speed-serve “Green Tea Shots” partnership.
• Grocery steady in Southeast; value channels cautious; watch SNAP and holiday elasticity.

Supply correction

• California vineyard removals ~7%; further right-sizing likely.
• Record KY barrel stocks; selected capacity and labor reductions in whiskey supply chain.

Action items

• Tighten code and inventory, bias to proven RTDs and value-leaning light lagers.
• Hedge tariff/TTB timing in Q4 plans; build alt scenarios for imported pricing.
• Prune low-repeat innovation; double down on formats with velocity in independents and on-premise.