Weekly Market Roundup

Grain Exports: It’s been a strong week for grain exports, with demand keeping markets active. On the Nebraska Soybean Board Weekly Market Roundup, experts Jim McCormick and Jacob Burks from AgMarket.Net analyzed the volatility in grain prices, noting that upcoming election results could impact this momentum.

Drought Concerns: Drought conditions are continuing to influence the market. While South America has seen some much-needed rainfall, improving crop potential, U.S. wheat markets still face issues with low moisture levels and price stagnation, leaving wheat in a challenging position.

Cattle Market Risks: There's also speculation around a potential "risk-off" movement in the cattle market, which might be affected by uncertainty in both domestic and international markets as well as impending election results.

The corn and soybean exports have shown strength this past week, which has been a positive sign for the markets. On this week's Nebraska Soybean Board Weekly Market Roundup we hear from Jeff Peterson with Heartland Farm Partners and Shawn Hackett at Hackett Financial Advisors. One question that came up is why some buyers are listed as "unknown" on the export sales report—often, this is used to protect sensitive buyer information or when multiple buyers are involved. While it might seem early to worry, dry conditions across parts of the U.S. are raising concerns, especially as we move deeper into harvest. Meanwhile, South America is experiencing mixed planting conditions, with dryness in some areas potentially affecting crop prospects. Additionally, with the upcoming elections, the ag sector may feel increased pressure from policy and market uncertainties.

The Friday WASDE report didn’t bring any major surprises, but there were a few key takeaways worth noting. On this week's Nebraska Soybean Board Weekly Market Roundup, we hear from Kyle Bumsted with Allendale and David Ericson with Ag Optimist. Corn yield numbers came in close to expectations, though some believe they could still be adjusted in future reports. Soybean yield estimates also appeared reasonable, but the market will keep a close eye on how weather impacts final numbers. U.S. ending stocks were in line with projections, though global ending stocks raised a few eyebrows, particularly with ongoing challenges in key growing regions. Meanwhile, in the cattle market, heavier weighted cattle are impacting trade, with the north moving on steady numbers before any activity in the south.

Market volatility was a key theme this week for both grains and livestock. On this week's Nebraska Soybean Board Weekly Market Roundup, Sue Martin with Ag & Investment and Mike Zuzolo with Global Commodity Analytics discuss the weather challenges impacting agriculture, not only in the U.S. but worldwide. China returned to the market this week, purchasing grains, while countries like Egypt are building up reserves. In the coming weeks, all eyes will remain on weather patterns and potential shifts in global tensions as they continue to shape the markets.

The soybean market continues to rise despite lingering uncertainty around yield results. On this week's Nebraska Soybean Board Weekly Market Roundup, Darren Frye with Water Street Advisors and Kyle Bumsted with Allendale break down the latest trade trends. Concerns are growing over Brazil's dry weather and delayed planting, raising questions about short covering in soybeans and the bean carryover. China's stimulus package remains a focal point, influencing Friday's market activity. With harvest in full swing, producers are weighing the decision to sell or store corn and beans. Meanwhile, the cattle market saw another strong performance, with higher cash prices in both the North and South, including a $4 increase in the North. Additionally, cheap corn is providing favorable opportunities for feeders.

With the FEDS rating drop adding pressure to the markets, harvest is underway, though dry conditions are raising concerns about crop quality. On this week's Nebraska Soybean Board Weekly Market Roundup we hear from Sue Martin with Ag & Investment and Darin Fessler with Lakefront Futures. This year’s yield potential remains difficult to pin down, with regional variability adding to the uncertainty. The recent FED numbers also set a cautious tone across markets, influencing both grain and livestock trades. Meanwhile, South American crops are facing significant challenges, with Argentine farmers abandoning acres due to drought and insect pressure, and late planting in Brazil raising additional concerns about supply. These global factors will likely play a pivotal role in market movements in the weeks ahead.

This week’s market activity centered around anticipation leading up to the Thursday USDA WASDE report, which largely met expectations without any major surprises. On the Nebraska Soybean Board Weekly Market Roundup, Mark Gold from Top Third/StoneX and Heather Ramsey from the ARC Group discuss the week's key market drivers. The ongoing drought, highlighted in the latest Drought Monitor, is expanding, with hopes that the forecasted rains next week will provide relief. Concerns are also rising over fires in Brazil as extreme dryness and heat persist.

The drop in the U.S. dollar could open up more export opportunities, especially given the slow start to the new marketing year. However, geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine are resurfacing after a grain ship bound for Egypt was hit, adding uncertainty to global grain trade. This escalation could affect supply routes and push grain prices higher.

It was a risk-off day in the grain and livestock markets, with producers keeping a close eye on cattle and feed costs, worrying about a potential long-term downtrend. On this week's Nebraska Soybean Board Weekly Market Roundup we hear from Shawn Hackett with Hackett Financial Advisors and Kyle Bumsted with Allendale as they break down the long trading week that was only four days. The release of disappointing job numbers has added to the uncertainty, raising concerns that reduced consumer spending could affect grocery demand, including meat purchases. In South America, dry weather is becoming a significant issue as planting season approaches, while the same dryness is hindering grain transportation on key waterways, including rivers in Brazil and the Mississippi River in the U.S. Meanwhile, milk prices are hovering around $23, offering some relief to dairy farmers but still flirting with volatility.

On Friday’s grain market close, the technicals showed a mixed picture, with some markets finding support while others faced resistance. Funds are currently holding a short position in several grains, reflecting a bearish sentiment in the market. On this week's Nebraska Soybean Board Weekly Market Roundup we hear from Jacob Burks and Brian Splitt with AgMarket.Net. Producer selling of old crop has been steady, with many farmers having already moved a significant portion of their grain. However, as we transition into the new crop, marketing has been cautious, with some farmers locking in prices to manage risk while others are holding out for potential rallies.

The completion of the annual ProFarmer Crop Tour provides valuable insights that are critical for market analysis. This week on the Nebraska Soybean Board Weekly Market Roundup, Darren Frye from Water Street Solutions and Jeff Peterson with Heartland Farm Partners delve into the findings from the tour's final report. They discuss key factors such as weather conditions, areas with strong crop performance, and regions that faced significant challenges. By comparing these findings to the August WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates) report, they provide a clearer picture of how current estimates align with or diverge from official projections. Additionally, they offer predictions on what the market might expect in the upcoming September WASDE report, helping stakeholders prepare for potential shifts in market trends.