Weekly Market Roundup

The soybean market continues to rise despite lingering uncertainty around yield results. On this week's Nebraska Soybean Board Weekly Market Roundup, Darren Frye with Water Street Advisors and Kyle Bumsted with Allendale break down the latest trade trends. Concerns are growing over Brazil's dry weather and delayed planting, raising questions about short covering in soybeans and the bean carryover. China's stimulus package remains a focal point, influencing Friday's market activity. With harvest in full swing, producers are weighing the decision to sell or store corn and beans. Meanwhile, the cattle market saw another strong performance, with higher cash prices in both the North and South, including a $4 increase in the North. Additionally, cheap corn is providing favorable opportunities for feeders.

With the FEDS rating drop adding pressure to the markets, harvest is underway, though dry conditions are raising concerns about crop quality. On this week's Nebraska Soybean Board Weekly Market Roundup we hear from Sue Martin with Ag & Investment and Darin Fessler with Lakefront Futures. This year’s yield potential remains difficult to pin down, with regional variability adding to the uncertainty. The recent FED numbers also set a cautious tone across markets, influencing both grain and livestock trades. Meanwhile, South American crops are facing significant challenges, with Argentine farmers abandoning acres due to drought and insect pressure, and late planting in Brazil raising additional concerns about supply. These global factors will likely play a pivotal role in market movements in the weeks ahead.

This week’s market activity centered around anticipation leading up to the Thursday USDA WASDE report, which largely met expectations without any major surprises. On the Nebraska Soybean Board Weekly Market Roundup, Mark Gold from Top Third/StoneX and Heather Ramsey from the ARC Group discuss the week's key market drivers. The ongoing drought, highlighted in the latest Drought Monitor, is expanding, with hopes that the forecasted rains next week will provide relief. Concerns are also rising over fires in Brazil as extreme dryness and heat persist.

The drop in the U.S. dollar could open up more export opportunities, especially given the slow start to the new marketing year. However, geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine are resurfacing after a grain ship bound for Egypt was hit, adding uncertainty to global grain trade. This escalation could affect supply routes and push grain prices higher.

It was a risk-off day in the grain and livestock markets, with producers keeping a close eye on cattle and feed costs, worrying about a potential long-term downtrend. On this week's Nebraska Soybean Board Weekly Market Roundup we hear from Shawn Hackett with Hackett Financial Advisors and Kyle Bumsted with Allendale as they break down the long trading week that was only four days. The release of disappointing job numbers has added to the uncertainty, raising concerns that reduced consumer spending could affect grocery demand, including meat purchases. In South America, dry weather is becoming a significant issue as planting season approaches, while the same dryness is hindering grain transportation on key waterways, including rivers in Brazil and the Mississippi River in the U.S. Meanwhile, milk prices are hovering around $23, offering some relief to dairy farmers but still flirting with volatility.

On Friday’s grain market close, the technicals showed a mixed picture, with some markets finding support while others faced resistance. Funds are currently holding a short position in several grains, reflecting a bearish sentiment in the market. On this week's Nebraska Soybean Board Weekly Market Roundup we hear from Jacob Burks and Brian Splitt with AgMarket.Net. Producer selling of old crop has been steady, with many farmers having already moved a significant portion of their grain. However, as we transition into the new crop, marketing has been cautious, with some farmers locking in prices to manage risk while others are holding out for potential rallies.

The completion of the annual ProFarmer Crop Tour provides valuable insights that are critical for market analysis. This week on the Nebraska Soybean Board Weekly Market Roundup, Darren Frye from Water Street Solutions and Jeff Peterson with Heartland Farm Partners delve into the findings from the tour's final report. They discuss key factors such as weather conditions, areas with strong crop performance, and regions that faced significant challenges. By comparing these findings to the August WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates) report, they provide a clearer picture of how current estimates align with or diverge from official projections. Additionally, they offer predictions on what the market might expect in the upcoming September WASDE report, helping stakeholders prepare for potential shifts in market trends.

What is the long-range impact of the WASDE report? The recent shifts in wheat and corn suggest potential opportunities for corn in 2025. On this week's Nebraska Soybean Board Weekly Market Roundup we hear from Mike Zuzolo with Global Commodity Analytics and Craig Turner with StoneX. As we look ahead, the ProFarmer Crop Tour, starting on the 19th, will provide further insights into crop conditions. Meanwhile, the cattle market experienced a downtrend this week, which many had been concerned about. There are growing thoughts that packers may push bids even lower, adding pressure to an already challenging market environment.

The market had a long week of trading, with cattle showing some improvement by the end of Friday, although still not green on the screen. Breaking everything down for this week's Nebraska Soybean Board Weekly Market Roundup we hear from Kyle Bumsted with Allendale and Darin Fessler at Lakefront Futures. Algorithms played a significant role in driving cattle prices this week. Macro factors, including weather conditions, crop potential, and are we heavily sold in the grain market, had a substantial impact. Additionally, we will break down the equity markets and explore how they relate to the agricultural sector, providing a comprehensive overview of the factors influencing the current market dynamics.

The macro picture is also weighing heavily on the agricultural markets. On this week's Nebraska Soybean Board Weekly Market Roundup, Shawn Hackett of Hackett Financial Advisors discusses the broader world economy and political factors, explaining why now might not be the optimal time to maximize farm income. He also provides insights into the current state of old crop stocks still in the bin and recent movements in cattle and dairy markets over the past week. Hackett's analysis underscores the complexity of the current market environment and the need for strategic planning by farmers.

The current situation in the corn and soybean markets is challenging, with prices having recently set lows after a tough week. During this week's Nebraska Soybean Board Weekly Market Roundup, Jeff Peterson with Heartland Farm Partners talks about some volatility, leaving many wondering if we have finally seen the lows for corn and soybeans. Market analysts suggest that the markets have already factored in a reasonably sized corn and soybean crop, reflecting current expectations for yield and production. To handle the stress of these lower markets, it's essential for farmers to stay informed, maintain a focus on long-term strategies, and possibly seek advice from market advisors. For unsold old crop corn and soybeans, it's recommended to carefully consider storage options and market conditions before making sales decisions, ensuring the best possible outcomes in an uncertain market environment.