Were We Lucky, or Were We Good?

SUMMARY 

This episode explores the impact of climate change on outdoor and experiential education, emphasizing proactive risk management and organizational resilience. Guest Shana Tarter shares insights on adapting to climate threats, rethinking risk assessment, and implementing strategic planning to proactively manage risk and promote mission continuity.

CHAPTERS

00:00 Introduction to the Podcast and Guest

01:36 The Opportunity to Be Good Rather than Lucky

02:17 Impact of Climate Change on Outdoor Programs

04:24 The Dichotomy of Luck and Good

05:43 Recognizing Slow-Moving Threats

07:41 Lessons from COVID-19 for Climate Adaptation

08:48 Mental Models and Sunk Cost Bias

10:24 Incentives for Change in Risk Management

12:59 Evolving Risk Assessment Models

14:30 Dynamic Risk Assessment in Climate Change

18:22 Collaboration in Decision-Making

20:12 Navigating the Yellow Zone of Risk

21:04 Proactive Approaches to Risk Management

23:56 Operational Resilience and Planning

26:04 Informed Consent and Communication

27:54 Moving from Lucky to Good

28:19 Final Thoughts and Action Steps

RESOURCES

Wilderness Climate Action Group - https://www.linkedin.com/groups/12345678/

Journal Article:  https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/epub/10.1177/10806032241296526

 What were the factors that set them up to fail, and what were the good habits and practices that helped to mitigate the impact? 

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Join us for a curious, humble examination of the lessons learned from this incident - and how we might apply these lessons in other aspects of our lives and outdoor adventures.  

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Were they lucky, or were they good?  

Key Topics

• Dan’s personal avalanche accident story and the sequence of events
• How terrain configuration and wind slabs contributed to the avalanche
• The importance of probabilistic hazard assessment and recognizing changing conditions
• The role of heuristics such as social proof, confirmation bias, and familiarity in decision-making
• Group dynamics and the influence of expert familiarity on safety judgments
• Strategies for building safety routines: intentional checkpoints and debriefing
• The value of modeling vulnerability and honest communication in safety culture
• The shift in avalanche education from terrain to decision-making and group psychology
• Concepts of fail safe vs. fail safe design in outdoor risk management
• Continuous learning and promoting a culture of sharing near misses and mistakes

• The North American Avalanche Danger Scale
• ICSP Conference (International Snow Science Workshop)
• Ian McCammon and Sarah Boilen's work on field debriefs
• Canadian Avalanche Association Curriculum
• Heuristics and Decision Making in the Context of Avalanche Safety

What happens when a seemingly benign activity, one that has been done many times before, drifts into riskier terrain than usual? And how do some decisions and factors that occurred earlier on the program amplify the impact of this unexpected event?

Join outdoor risk consultant and author Deb Ajango, who shares the story of an incident she was brought in to review with a school that experienced a snow shelter (quinzhee) collapse on some of their participants.

What role did luck and other factors play in this unfortunate event?

In this episode, Norm Eckman shares his evolution in outdoor education, emphasizing the importance of focusing on what instructors can control—structure, presence, supervision, and involvement—to evaluate course success and prevent burnout. The discussion explores safety models, organizational learning, and the continuous pursuit of improvement in outdoor programs.

See other episodes and share your story at www.luckyorgoodpodcast.com

Guest: Tamara Walker

A climber's terrifying solo climb down steep ice, and what she learned from this experience.

Discover a deeply personal story of mountain climbing that explores the interplay of luck, skill, and psychological resilience.

This episode offers valuable insights into managing fear, decision-making under pressure, and how past experiences shape our responses in high-stakes environments.

Was she lucky, or was she good?