In this episode of InFocus with David Coletto, I dig into why the Liberals—now led by Prime Minister Mark Carney—are currently the favourites in this federal election campaign. Using advanced analysis from a binary logistic regression model, I break down what’s really driving support for the Liberal Party.

We explore how voters’ priorities—like concern about Donald Trump versus anxiety over the cost of living—shape the likelihood of supporting the Liberals, and why impressions of Carney and Poilievre matter so much. I also unpack a few hypothetical voter profiles to illustrate how issue salience and leader perceptions work together to move votes.

Whether you’re on the campaign trail, in the war room, or just trying to make sense of the latest polls, this data-driven episode offers insights into how the ballot question is being shaped—and what that means for each party’s path to victory.