Straight Outta Vegas AM

What I Bet - Thursday February 12th


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Griffin Warner talks betting for Thursday.

Griffin Warner returned to the Pregame.com podcast network and the Straight Outta Vegas AM feed with a compact Thursday card, looking to build on a college basketball win with Tulane on February 11 and push for a second straight result. The slate featured a single English Premier League match, a Copa del Rey semifinal first leg, and a lighter than usual college basketball board, before closing with a best bet and promotional offer. The lone Premier League fixture sends Arsenal across London to face Brentford, with the visitors installed as three quarter goal favorites on the road. Arsenal sit atop the league conversation after consecutive second place finishes in recent seasons and are navigating domestic and European commitments, including the Premier League title race, the Champions League, the Carabao Cup, and an upcoming FA Cup tie. Manager Miguel Arteta has been reluctant to rotate heavily, and squad depth has been tested amid a crowded schedule. Brentford, meanwhile, have been strong at home, earning notable results against bigger sides and benefiting from not competing in Europe. The total is set at two and a half shaded to the over, reflecting Brentford’s scoring ability against an Arsenal side that typically controls possession and limits shots. Arsenal generate significant production from set pieces, while Brentford employ a similar approach with long throws and structured restarts. Warner indicated interest in Brentford plus three quarters of a goal, preferring to wait for a potential move to plus one as public support flows toward the league leaders. In Spain, Barcelona visit Atletico Madrid in the first leg of the Copa del Rey semifinals. The two leg format places added emphasis on home performance, with the return match set for Barcelona. Atletico are slight home underdogs at a quarter goal, while Barcelona are favored to advance at minus 252 compared with Atletico at plus 209. The total sits at three and a quarter shaded to the over, consistent with Barcelona’s attacking profile and defensive vulnerabilities. Atletico have long projected as a third place side in Spain, guided by an experienced manager and bolstered by increased spending that has shifted them toward a more offensive identity. Warner noted that a strong first leg result is critical for Atletico given the difficulty of the return trip, and expressed measured interest in the home underdog while acknowledging the market respect shown toward Barcelona. The college basketball schedule opens with Kennesaw State hosting Middle Tennessee State, followed by Missouri Valley Conference action including Charleston laying a point to Hofstra and Southern Illinois favored by 12 over Evansville ahead of Arch Madness. Memphis at North Texas stands out as the marquee matchup, with Memphis a one point road favorite and a total of 136.5. North Texas sits outside the current American Conference tournament picture and would benefit significantly from a home win. Memphis have shown recent improvement with victories over UAB and FAU but have been inconsistent and thinner on talent. North Texas, under new leadership after Ross Hodge departed for West Virginia, continue to lean on defense and a deliberate pace. Warner expects tempo control from the home side in what profiles as a grind. Additional matchups include Oregon State catching eight and a half at San Francisco, Belmont laying five to Northern Iowa after Bradley’s overtime win, and a series of Big West contests featuring Hawaii, UC San Diego, UC Santa Barbara, UC Irvine, and others. The episode concluded with a promotional code, Jumper20, valid for 20 percent off purchases at Pregame.com through February 23, and a best bet on under 136.5 in Memphis at North Texas, anticipating a low scoring contest dictated by the Mean Green.

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