Straight Outta Vegas AM

What I Bet - Thursday January 15th


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Griffin Warner talks betting for Thursday Jan 15.

The latest episode of the What I Bet podcast on the Pregame.com network covers a wide slate of betting markets during a relatively thin midweek card, touching on college football, the NFL playoffs, European soccer, and a difficult college basketball board. The show opens with a discussion of the College Football Playoff national championship between Indiana and Miami, with Indiana laying eight and a half points and a total of 47. Indiana’s dominance through the postseason, including a blowout of Oregon and a strong showing against Ohio State in the Big Ten title game, has made them difficult to oppose, even at an elevated number. Miami’s proximity to the venue in Miami Gardens is noted but not treated as a significant home field advantage, and the expectation is that the market may continue to push the spread higher. In the NFL, significant attention is paid to line movement in Buffalo versus Denver, where the Bills shifted from a short favorite to a one point underdog. Despite travel concerns and Denver’s rest advantage, the matchup is framed as a true toss up, with skepticism toward both teams outside of Josh Allen’s individual impact. San Francisco at Seattle is another focal point, with the 49ers catching seven and a half points in a game viewed as overpriced given Seattle’s offensive limitations and quarterback uncertainty. The return of key defenders for San Francisco is highlighted as a meaningful factor. Houston at New England is analyzed next, with emphasis on the Texans’ defense and concerns about turnovers from a young Patriots quarterback against pressure. The under at 40 and a half is described as appealing in a matchup shaped by defense and pace. The Rams at Chicago closes the NFL discussion, with weather driving the total down to 48 and a half and creating value on the Bears as home underdogs catching three and a half points in cold conditions. The soccer segment briefly covers Augsburg versus Union Berlin in the Bundesliga, where a low scoring match and an under two and a quarter goals angle stands out, followed by two Serie A matches involving Verona versus Bologna and Como versus Milan. Bologna’s consistency and depth are noted, while Verona’s tendency to compete at home later in the season creates a lean toward the underdog in a low total game. In Como versus Milan, the pricing is described as tight, with interest in backing Como if Milan moves to a quarter goal favorite. The college basketball slate is described as extremely weak, with limited marquee matchups and little conviction across most games. After scanning several mid major contests, the official best bet for the show is Delaware minus one and a half against UTEP, based on UTEP’s long standing struggles on the road and the difficulty of traveling cross country for the matchup. The episode concludes with a promotional reminder for Pregame.com using the division15 code ahead of the divisional round.


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