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What I Learned from the SMM Metals Conference
Good Evening,
I was on the ground at the SMM Asia Metals Seminar in Hong Kong today. Excellent content: deep dives, hard data, and no tourist-level macro. In this short episode, I run through key takeaways from the industrial and new energy metals sessions metal by metal, but first, do consider subscribing to the substack for much more of this.
Copper
* Global supply growth is flat: top producers (BHP, Codelco, Freeport) have shown zero structural output growth since 2020
* Models show upside to >$10,000/ton with base case at ~$9,800
* Inventories in China and Europe at multi-year lows, <2 weeks of demand cover
* Long-term capex shortfall of US$150 billion to meet 2035 demand
📈 Verdict: Strong long. Best setup in the market.
Zinc
* Refined market tight through 2025, but surplus expected by 2026
* TCs rising; mine supply returning
* Chinese refined output up +5.2% YoY, demand growth slowing
🧭 Verdict: Tactical only. Fade the strength post-2025.
Tin
* Global supply thin, highly concentrated (Indonesia, Myanmar)
* Inventories low: <30 days global coverage
* Demand anchored in semiconductors, solar, and industrial electronics
💡 Verdict: Optionality. Small market, big moves.
Nickel
* Indonesia to produce >50% of global supply by 2026
* LME + SHFE inventory rising; matte and sulphate margins deeply negative
* NPI-to-refined conversion loss: ~$900–1,000/t at current tolling fees
📉 Verdict: Structurally bearish. Narrative still lags reality.
Cobalt
* DRC still supplies 98–99% of China’s cobalt imports
* ARECOMS export ban triggered +89% spike in Co₃O₄ over 40 days
* But global supply rising: expected to grow from 309 kt (2024) to 390 kt (2030E)
⚠️ Verdict: Geopolitical squeeze short-term; surplus long-term.
Lithium
* China carbonate surplus: 5–9 kt/month expected through H1 2026
* Inventories elevated: 130,000+ tons in storage across chain
* LFP chemistry dominates; NCM market share declining steadily
* Cost curve: only Australian spodumene and Chilean brine consistently profitable
🪫 Verdict: Still oversupplied. Interesting only at the cost curve bottom.
Have a good day,
Leonid
Get full access to Panda Perspectives at pandaperspectives.substack.com/subscribe
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By Podcast By Leonid Mironov of Panda PerspectivesGood Evening,
I was on the ground at the SMM Asia Metals Seminar in Hong Kong today. Excellent content: deep dives, hard data, and no tourist-level macro. In this short episode, I run through key takeaways from the industrial and new energy metals sessions metal by metal, but first, do consider subscribing to the substack for much more of this.
Copper
* Global supply growth is flat: top producers (BHP, Codelco, Freeport) have shown zero structural output growth since 2020
* Models show upside to >$10,000/ton with base case at ~$9,800
* Inventories in China and Europe at multi-year lows, <2 weeks of demand cover
* Long-term capex shortfall of US$150 billion to meet 2035 demand
📈 Verdict: Strong long. Best setup in the market.
Zinc
* Refined market tight through 2025, but surplus expected by 2026
* TCs rising; mine supply returning
* Chinese refined output up +5.2% YoY, demand growth slowing
🧭 Verdict: Tactical only. Fade the strength post-2025.
Tin
* Global supply thin, highly concentrated (Indonesia, Myanmar)
* Inventories low: <30 days global coverage
* Demand anchored in semiconductors, solar, and industrial electronics
💡 Verdict: Optionality. Small market, big moves.
Nickel
* Indonesia to produce >50% of global supply by 2026
* LME + SHFE inventory rising; matte and sulphate margins deeply negative
* NPI-to-refined conversion loss: ~$900–1,000/t at current tolling fees
📉 Verdict: Structurally bearish. Narrative still lags reality.
Cobalt
* DRC still supplies 98–99% of China’s cobalt imports
* ARECOMS export ban triggered +89% spike in Co₃O₄ over 40 days
* But global supply rising: expected to grow from 309 kt (2024) to 390 kt (2030E)
⚠️ Verdict: Geopolitical squeeze short-term; surplus long-term.
Lithium
* China carbonate surplus: 5–9 kt/month expected through H1 2026
* Inventories elevated: 130,000+ tons in storage across chain
* LFP chemistry dominates; NCM market share declining steadily
* Cost curve: only Australian spodumene and Chilean brine consistently profitable
🪫 Verdict: Still oversupplied. Interesting only at the cost curve bottom.
Have a good day,
Leonid
Get full access to Panda Perspectives at pandaperspectives.substack.com/subscribe