Good Evening,
Do check out the macro notes form last week:
China Macro Snapshot after 1Q25: The difficult transition, the reasons for hope.
China Property: From Collapse to Calm?: A deep look at how the sector is stabilizing — and what it still lacks.
Chinese Consumption 2025: Cooling spending, persistent strength, and where the real opportunities may lie.
AS announced on the pod we’re moving in to Property, the entire series will be paywalled, so do please join up if you’re interested.
Serious about Asia investing? Your process needs more Panda. For those looking for personalised support — whether it’s China consumer, 2Q25 market strategy, or robotics and industrials — we’re also offering advisory calls. Learn more here or message us directly to book a time.
Reminder: Nothing in this Substack is investment advice. This content is for informational purposes only. Please do your own research or consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
🐼 Panda Takeaways – What Chinese Brokers vs US Banks See in China’s April Politburo Meeting
🛡️ Bottom-line thinking is back — and bipartisan
Both camps agree: China is preparing for more turbulence, especially from Trump’s tariff volleys. “Prepare for the worst” is now official doctrine, with the policy arsenal ready to fire if needed.
🏗️ Fiscal: fast-forward, not firehose
Chinese brokers expect a Q2 surge in local government bond issuance, with a focus on tangible projects like equipment upgrades, trade-in subsidies, and urban resettlement.
US banks agree on front-loading but warn that without stronger demand-side stimulus, the impact may underwhelm.
💰 Monetary easing: timing vs targeting
Consensus holds that RRR and rate cuts are coming.
Chinese brokers highlight new structural tools — relending for services, elderly care, and tech — as a sign of targeted support.
US banks see easing too, but frame it as reactive, expecting stronger signals only after weak Q2 data.
🛍️ Consumption: the macro swing factor
Both sides spotlight efforts to boost household spending, especially in services. Subsidies, financial tools, and income support are on the way.
Chinese brokers go further — seeing this as a pivot in market leadership, with sectors like catering, internet, and alcohol poised to benefit.
US banks see it more as a policy checkbox than a market catalyst (for now).
🏘️ Property: from ‘just enough’ to ‘good enough’
Chinese brokers emphasize a shift to high-quality housing, speeding up monetized resettlement in urban villages, and buying up unsold homes.
US banks are more cautious — they see the same tools being recycled with limited impact unless demand improves organically.
🔄 Exports: redirect, finance, survive
Agreement here: tariff-hit exporters will get financing support, redirected to domestic markets, and benefit from harmonized standards.
Chinese brokers see scope for structural change and SME resilience; US banks are skeptical these offset global demand loss.
🔧 Reform: still grinding, still relevant
Chinese brokers highlight continued reforms: building a unified national market, regulating fair competition, and opening services.
US banks downplay this — reform is background music, not the main theme.
Have a great week,
Leonid
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