Lead Americas Analyst Sydney Stewart and Middle East and Africa Analyst Megan Sutcliffe return to cover the latest escalation in the ongoing Israel-Iran shadow war.

On 19 April, Iran activated its air defences in response to reported drone incursions, likely from Israel, near air bases in Esfahan and Tabriz. The strikes followed Iran's earlier launch of drones and missiles towards Israel. The Biden administration distanced itself from the Israeli attack but confirmed that it had been notified. Sanctions against Iran were discussed. Potential scenarios include increased strikes on Iranian proxies by Israel and possible retaliatory measures from Iran. The risk of escalation is acknowledged, with the possibility of a new baseline for direct engagement. The episode concludes with a focus on future US engagement and strategic risk forecasts for the region.

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