Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing discusses what the latest signals from the US economy say about recession risk. He talks about what the coming week’s retail sales data might say, and how they might swing the debate around a downturn. Neil also previews the coming week’s Fed decision, a haul of start-of-the-year China data and explains why talk of increased defence spending won’t mean an automatic boost for economies.

Also on the show, Senior Global Economist Ariane Curtis talks about why we don’t think Donald Trump’s policy agenda will have an impact on the global economy over the long term. She talks about how the ranking of the top 10 biggest economies could change between now and 2050 and which are set to benefit most from the rollout of AI.

Analysis and events referenced in this episode:

Event: Drop-In - The Fed, ECB and Bank of England March meetings
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/global-drop-fed-ecb-and-bank-england-march-meetings

Data: China Activity Proxy
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/data-and-charts/china-activity-proxy

Read: Will defence spending turbocharge economic growth?
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-focus/will-defence-spending-turbocharge-economic-growth

Drop-In: Is US equities exceptionalism dead?
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/drop-us-equities-exceptionalism-dead

Read: Global megatrends will outweigh Trump disruption
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/long-run-economic-outlook/global-megatrends-will-outweigh-trump-disruption