Now that it was clear Germany would have to face the Entente, and likely Britain's imminent intervention, Berlin became much more active in sending diplomatic feelers across Europe. Romania, Bulgaria, Italy, and the Ottoman Empire, were all ideal targets. Some were erstwhile allies, others convenient partners, but could they be relied upon now, when the war had become reality?

In St Petersburg, the Russian answer to Germany's ultimatum was finally delivered, even if it took several hours for it to reach Berlin. However Sazonov might try to dress it up - however much editorialising the final meeting between he and the German ambassador endured - one thing could not be denied. Russia and Germany were now at war, and both conceived of this conflict as purely defensive in nature. Each had a point, but neither were able to pull back, and talk increasingly turned from preserving peace to preparing for war, as the desperate diplomacy of all sides did its work.

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We open with the shattered dreams of Kaiser Wilhelm II, as the British claim a 'misunderstanding' must have occurred to make Berlin believe Britain and France could remain neutral. The rollercoaster of emotions ended with Wilhelm's bitter confirmation to Moltke - he could do what he liked now. What Moltke liked to do and what he had to do were one and the same. It was time to switch back on the Schlieffen Plan, which meant world war was inevitable.

And yet, Germany delayed its declaration of war on France, even as mobilisation was announced in Paris, and Italy signalled it would remain neutral. Germany's diplomatic options had shrank dramatically. All that now existed was Vienna, and the hope that the pressure campaigns in Constantinople would finally pay off, yet there were no guarantees. The only guarantee was that war was now official, even if St Petersburg had yet to confirm it...

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In the final hours of peace, the German government was led to believe that a miracle had occurred. Incredibly, Britain had affirmed its intention not only to remain neutral, but to guarantee the neutrality of France as well. Where had such a monumental offer come from? Was it legitimate, or the product of a 'misunderstanding' between the German ambassador and the British government?

In this episode, we examine this infamous chapter in the crisis historiography. Had the British Foreign Secretary's vagueness caught up with him, or was Lichnowsky, the German ambassador, to blame? Had they got their wires crossed, or was something more fascinating going on under the surface, in a city where petitioners bombarded London with requests for support, and more information? Let's find out, as we try to understand this misunderstanding.

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After that disgraceful display in the White House, I couldn't stay silent any longer. Three years on from when I first offered my thoughts on the situation, in this very personal and raw episode, I cover the multilayered implications of the current crisis. What is Trump playing at? Is this new turn in American foreign policy going to fix anything, or is it merely emboldening Russia, weakening Ukraine, and making everyone less safe? You can probably predict where I stand, but if you feel like you're losing your mind right now, I hope you can some catharsis from this extended rant. 

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We're in the endgame now, but somehow, not everyone got the message.

There was plenty of waiting to be done. Berlin was waiting on Russia's reply to its ultimatum, and France was also expected to reply, but the generals felt they could not wait. Who knew how far Russia's mobilisation had gone, or how close Germany was to disaster? With this added time pressure, the Kaiser approved general mobilisation, as Europe reacted to the news that war would soon erupt. Yet, at the final moment, a lifeline - a message from London, that British and French neutrality could be guaranteed, if only Germany would agree to respect it. Such a momentous idea, in a day of watershed moments, characterised the final hours of European peace.

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In our final JULY episode of the July Crisis, we return to Britain, where the pressure was building to make a decision. Russian mobilisation was clearly in the air, and if the news was true, German mobilisation would soon follow. Was peace possible even now? Many in Britain insisted it could, and declared that to fight a war in the name of a far off Austro-Serbian conflict was anathema to British interests - and British honour.

But the interventionist camp was growing in strength as well. They had The Times on their side, but the Cabinet was as divided as the country. Into this tangled web of red lines and principles, Sir Edward Grey would have to navigate his colleagues somewhere. They couldn't leave France in the lurch, but the public wouldn't have it - not unless a moral case could be made. It was now known that France would respect Belgian neutrality, but Germany would not...

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Now that Berlin had accepted that war with Russia was inevitable, it remained to prepare the diplomatic ground.

German diplomacy had worked behind the scenes to court Romania and the Ottoman Empire, but the latter effort bore the most significant fruit. The Italians were less dependable, but there remained precious little time to persuade Austria to grant her the required concessions. And yet, the German ambassador kept seeking a way out when among his Russian peers. The Tsar insisted it was impossible to stop the mobilisation, but was this true? Sazonov might claim that mobilisation did not have to mean war, but could he guarantee this if Austrian troops invaded Serbia?

The scales were falling, but they had not yet hit the ground. Just as the Tsar could not offer clarity, the Kaiser's men were unable to confirm or deny their position on Belgian neutrality, despite knowing the importance of this question in London. Grey's diplomacy had been outpaced by the ultimata from Berlin, but as the hourglass drained, the German ambassador made a final desperate effort to leverage something, anything, which might persuade Russia to stand down. The message from Berlin was plain, even if it was inconsistently expressed - she did not want war, but felt forced into making it. Whether this message would resonate with European opinion, however, was another story.

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As the news of Russian mobilisation and Germany's Kriegsgefahr spread across Europe, urgent telegrams followed.

Whether in London, Berlin, or Paris, the picture was becoming clearer, but that did not mean contemporaries were content to allow the march to war. The Tsar had burned his bridges in Berlin, as the disgusted Germans scoffed at his decision to mobilise while requesting their mediation. Could he not understand that it was a provocation to prepare his entire army on their borders? Could Britain not see that Austria could give no concessions, and that this would not have made a difference anyway? Could the French not appreciate that necessity demanded she be neutralised first?

It was not cold hearted aggression or a lust for world conquest that spurred the German government forward, but the immediate threat to her security, and the worrying sign that no powers outside of her immediate alliance appeared to be listening to her anymore. Although Berlin had been honest about her intentions since Russia's step was learned of, still, somehow, the impression had set in that Germany was to blame. Grey had not given up hope, but his underlings were not enthusiastic about the prospects. In Berlin, apprehension had given way to a sense of relief. Russian mobilisation was official - surely this removed all questions of who was at fault? They had not sought the war, but if it was to be fought, these were the best possible circumstances. With a stirring sense of justice on their side, the German peacemakers took a step back, as the crisis entered its final phase.

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Russian general mobilisation was underway, and with red imperial posters announcing this grave new step, it could hardly be kept a secret. Yet, somehow, Germany seemed the only power truly in the loop. The question was, why were France and Britain unaware of it? Were they unaware, thanks to their ambassadors in St Petersburg, or had London and Paris chosen to ignore this seismic step, in their rush to blame Berlin?

The behaviour of Ambassadors Buchanan and Paleologue certainly deserves some scrutiny. Both men were on location in St Petersburg, and could see exactly what German ambassador Pourtales could see, so why had their announcements taken so long to arrive? Until they got official confirmation, the British and French governments could not be expected to act, and certainly would not restrain Russia.

The Russian government had a vested interest in maintaining this confusion, and Sergei Sazonov made little effort to spread the news with an official announcement. The news was spreading, but slowly, and Sazonov counted on the Central Powers reacting in such a manner that few would later remember who had moved first. Sazonov was fortunate in his adversaries, but in Berlin particularly, Russian mobilisation meant the end of peaceful diplomacy, even if the blind Entente refused to see it.

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By now, Europe was on a knife edge.

In Berlin, more and more rumours were pouring in that Russian general mobilisation was underway. In Vienna, no statesman was willing to make any concessions. Paris and London were both running shockingly blind. In St Petersburg, the morning of 31 July meant the official beginning of general mobilisation - with official red notices plastered across the city to drive it home.

When Ambassador Pourtales came upon these, he went immediately to Sazonov, and in their sharp conversation one thing became immediately clear to him - Russia was mobilising after all. The frightful rumours were true, and the only question now was how far along in these preparations she truly was. Pourtales fired a telegram to Berlin, informing the government that the Rubicon had been crossed.

Many miles away, the German government was biting its final fingernail when the telegram arrived. They were twenty minutes away from implementing their own measures - the Immediate Danger of War. With this confirmation, there was no denying it anymore - war was inevitable. The rolling snowball which the German Chancellor had so feared had now become unstoppable. Berlin would have no choice but to mobilise in turn, but while they did so, a critical PR campaign began, to make it clear to all of Europe and the world, where the blame truly lay. 

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