The German army was firmly in control of German policy, but its next steps were obvious to any contemporary with even the slightest grasp of the situation. The detour into Belgium had been flagged long in advance by the French, and could only be looked at in one way. The solution, though not officially announced in Berlin, was to manufacture a wide range of rumours of French border violations into a kind of justification. This was brought to its logical conclusion, as the Germans tried to claim - with a straight face - that they needed to invade Belgium, because the French were about to invade there too, so it was essential for German security.

Who could possibly believe such a naked set of lies? Remarkably, the rumour mill was so effective, that it was persuasive enough within German society, and among German officials. Countless communiques emphasised the defensive nature of Germany's offensive actions, and chastised other Europeans for their lack of understanding. Berlin could try to create this alternative reality, but in truth the Schlieffen Plan was the real driving force behind their actions, and other powers could clearly see this truth. Yet, in a policy which was as cynical as it was cringeworthy, Berlin persevered, insistent to the end that offence was defence, and the invasion of Belgium was an urgent matter of national security.

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Even as Moltke examined Germany's strategic options, the world was turning against Germany. Berlin pressed its case by pointing out the Russian sins of dishonesty and pre-emption, but was anyone listening? Britain's diplomats in Berlin, St Petersburg, and Vienna had had enough. The news from Luxemburg was a clear sign of things to come, and even if they were sympathetic to the Kaiser's position, the German response was viewed as an overreaction. Declarations of war came from Berlin and Vienna, not Paris and St Petersburg, and this was bound to drown out any pleas about technicalities.

To make up for this, German officials began reporting with increasing frequency on rumours and conjecture, dressing up impossible stories about outrages and violations as proof of Russian and French responsibility. But this only made their hole deeper, and even as Berlin cried foul, it was actively moving the ball forward, into Belgium. The imperatives of the Schlieffen Plan meant the ruin of Germany's reputation, and forced German officials to cling to the delusion that the eventual triumph would all be worth it - even while they opened Pandora's Box, and unleashed the madness of a great war upon the world.

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While Germany covered itself in infamy, the German ambassador in London did his best to maintain the fragile Anglo-German relationship. His mission was ultimately doomed, but no one could accuse Prince Max Lichnowsky of failing to try. An avid Anglophile and advocate of closer ties between the two countries, Lichnowsky continued to hope that his masters in Berlin could be persuaded that it was worth making a sacrifice in the war effort, if it meant Britain stayed out of the war.

Unfortunately for him, Berlin did not agree, and had effectively written Lichnowsky off as having gone native. Lichnowsky would not spare his masters from criticism, and would insist until the end of his life that Germany had been the agent of its own misfortunate, while he was just one of many casualties.

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In this second part of my conversation with Thom, we discuss the unlawful way in which the Trump administration behaves at home, including its treatment of citizens who hold views which the President does not like. It is free speech for me, but not for thee, and we look at the historical context for these actions. Can anything stop Trump? Or are the courts as toothless as Congress and the press. Will the American people be forced to fix these things themselves, or is it already too late to return to the America we used to know? Thanksss again to Thom for joining me, and I hope you enjoyed this deep dive into modern America.

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In this first of two episodes with Thom Daly, we focus on the United States and its position in the world following the Trump administration's many blunders and betrayals in foreign policy, trade policy, and many more things besides. If you believe what Trump has done is antithetical to America and what it is supposed to represent, then you'll be in good company. Please join us for a passionate conversation, and let me know what you think.

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The traditional picture of British intervention in the First World War normally comes down to one issue - Belgium. On 4 August, Britain did declare war on Germany. However, before this monumental step took place, Britain had already made its choice - or, rather, the British Cabinet had. The Liberal government was against intervention in a majority, and we have seen countless manifestations of this position over the previous days. Asquith, Grey, and Churchill wanted to intervene, but how could they persuade their colleagues of this? In this episode, we discover that the reasons for the government's conversion to intervention came not from Belgium, or France, or even Luxemburg, but from internal political factors.

Simply put, when Grey, Asquith, Churchill and others signalled that they would resign if neutrality became policy, and when the Conservative opposition signalled that they would march to war if in power, the remaining Cabinet members faced an impossible choice. Either they could swallow their opposition, and concede to what Grey and the interventionists wanted, or they could resist, the government would collapse, and the Tories would take Britain to war regardless. As we will see in this episode, this was not much of a choice at all...

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The Schleiffen Plan demanded an invasion of the small Grand Duchy of Luxemburg, where German forces would seize key railway installations, facilitating their march into Belgium, and then to France. Of course, nobody told the Luxemburgers, but Berlin was very eager to make it clear that this unannounced invasion was not an invasion at all. Oh no, this was merely a precautionary measure, essential for German security.

If the Luxemburgers complied peacefully, all would be well. If not, well, then the Luxemburgers must be mad to face down the full might of 7/8 of the German army which barrelled towards them. As hundreds of thousands of soldiers flooded westwards, Europe was alight with diplomatic activity, complete with questions which really should have been answered by now. Peace was all but lost, but that did not mean the war had to arrive with any measure of clarity.

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Now that it was clear Germany would have to face the Entente, and likely Britain's imminent intervention, Berlin became much more active in sending diplomatic feelers across Europe. Romania, Bulgaria, Italy, and the Ottoman Empire, were all ideal targets. Some were erstwhile allies, others convenient partners, but could they be relied upon now, when the war had become reality?

In St Petersburg, the Russian answer to Germany's ultimatum was finally delivered, even if it took several hours for it to reach Berlin. However Sazonov might try to dress it up - however much editorialising the final meeting between he and the German ambassador endured - one thing could not be denied. Russia and Germany were now at war, and both conceived of this conflict as purely defensive in nature. Each had a point, but neither were able to pull back, and talk increasingly turned from preserving peace to preparing for war, as the desperate diplomacy of all sides did its work.

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We open with the shattered dreams of Kaiser Wilhelm II, as the British claim a 'misunderstanding' must have occurred to make Berlin believe Britain and France could remain neutral. The rollercoaster of emotions ended with Wilhelm's bitter confirmation to Moltke - he could do what he liked now. What Moltke liked to do and what he had to do were one and the same. It was time to switch back on the Schlieffen Plan, which meant world war was inevitable.

And yet, Germany delayed its declaration of war on France, even as mobilisation was announced in Paris, and Italy signalled it would remain neutral. Germany's diplomatic options had shrank dramatically. All that now existed was Vienna, and the hope that the pressure campaigns in Constantinople would finally pay off, yet there were no guarantees. The only guarantee was that war was now official, even if St Petersburg had yet to confirm it...

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In the final hours of peace, the German government was led to believe that a miracle had occurred. Incredibly, Britain had affirmed its intention not only to remain neutral, but to guarantee the neutrality of France as well. Where had such a monumental offer come from? Was it legitimate, or the product of a 'misunderstanding' between the German ambassador and the British government?

In this episode, we examine this infamous chapter in the crisis historiography. Had the British Foreign Secretary's vagueness caught up with him, or was Lichnowsky, the German ambassador, to blame? Had they got their wires crossed, or was something more fascinating going on under the surface, in a city where petitioners bombarded London with requests for support, and more information? Let's find out, as we try to understand this misunderstanding.

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