The 30 July was a turning point for the British Cabinet. When the German Chancellor made his bid for British neutrality, yet refused to guarantee the independence of Belgium or to rule out annexations of French colonies, it set in motion a terrible chain of events.

Sir Edward Grey planned to use this faux pas to pile more pressure on the non-interventionists, who seemed to be growing in power every day. His Cabinet was thoroughly divided, but there was one bright spark - Ireland. Thanks to a last minute compromise between Nationalist and Unionist figures, the Home Rule crisis was postponed, for now.

Although the Cabinet was united in revelling in this good news, it was not agreed when it came to the question of intervening in the unfolding crisis. As the full details of the arrangement with France were unknown to them, non-interventionists could not imagine any reason why their country should join the war on her side. Some felt so strongly about maintaining British neutrality, in fact, that they were willing to topple their own government from the inside...

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The Russian decision to commence general mobilisation against Austria and Germany was made in the afternoon of 30 July, ultimately by the Tsar.

It took 24 hours of intense pressure by several leading Russian officials, but after backtracking the previous day, Tsar Nicholas was finally persuaded to go all in. His anxious generals were told that there was no going back - he would not change his mind again, and they could smash their telephone if they wished to guarantee it. But why were they in such a rush to mobilise the entire Russian army in the first place? Accounts of the origins of the First World War, if they cover this pivotal decision, tend to explain it as an example of Russian aggression, and proof that the Russians, rather than the Germans, were in fact responsible for the outbreak of the war. But there was more going on in the Tsar's court than this.

The Russian government had technically jumped the shark, but they had done so for several reasons which at the time, appeared justifiable. The German ambassador had warned against Russian military measures, and threatened intervention. The Austrians had begun bombarding Belgrade. Yet, by far the most consequential factor in Russia's calculations was its intelligence. This intel depicted Austria, and Germany, as preparing military forces far out of proportion to what they publicly claimed. Ironically, the Russians came to believe that their rivals were mobilising covertly, and in response, they began to do the same, with utterly catastrophic consequences for all involved...

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Welcome to our first episode of 2025! We return to a pivotal moment in the crisis, when Germany experienced yet another 180 in policy.

A day which began with a frantic German effort to pressure Austria into making concessions soon devolved into the more familiar mission - preparing the realm for war. What had caused this shift in German policy? Why had Bethmann Hollweg and Jagow given up on restraining their ally? Had they resigned themselves to a world war? The answer lay in Russia, and the preparations Russia was making to implement general mobilisation.

If the Tsar had mobilised his entire army against Austria and Germany, then it was hardly possible for Berlin to stand aside and watch. It was also impossible to imagine either side backing down, when doing so now would mean a shameful, expensive retreat, with no guarantees for security or satisfaction. The contemporaries had painted themselves into a corner, and in this episode, you could argue, the writing was now clearly on the wall.

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As Thursday 30 July progressed, one thing seemed clear to the German Chancellor and Foreign Minister - Austria had to be stopped, before the crisis deteriorated any further.

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The solution appeared to lie in drawing some commitments out of her, and perhaps preparing the ground for some kind of compromise. It was vague, but Bethmann and Jagow depended on Tschirschky, their ambassador to Vienna, to help them over the line. Could Berchtold be persuaded? Tschirschky, in fact, had gone native, but that was far from their only problem.

Having pushed matters to this point, Berchtold now feared Berlin might abandon the alliance. To get ahead of this danger, Vienna would have to raise the stakes - she would have to commit to general mobilisation. This was indeed scheduled - for 4 August! Yet in Vienna there was still little awareness of the Russian threat.

Perhaps when confronted with the mobilisation of the entire Habsburg army, Russia would back down? If she did not, then Russia would have to begin general mobilisation to defend itself, and Germany would mobilise in response. It seemed like a win-win - either the rival backs down or the ally stands resolute for your punitive war.

But the Germans were not so easily ensnared. They had begun to recognise when the Austrians suggested pointless protests or empty devices, and they pressured them for more information. The best method available was through diplomacy. In these final hours of peace, communication channels were kept open, and new proposals, each more unacceptable, emerged from Sazonov's pen.

What Sazonov neglected to tell either Vienna or Berlin as he updated his position was that Russia had upped the ante. Tsar Nicholas II had been persuaded to push the big red button after all, and the Central Powers would be forced together. Until this news leaked out though, the two allies were destined to continue their dance. 

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By the morning of 30 July 1914, the German government was undergoing something of an identity crisis. Was Berlin the resolute ally, determined to support Austria whatever the cost, or was she the rational actor, determined to avoid war, even if this proved painful? To the German Chancellor and Foreign Minister, the answer wasn't immediately clear, but they were certain that where Austria was concerned, enough was enough. It was time for Vienna to explain what it planned to do in Serbia, and if necessary, it was time to consider the possibility of compromise, by using any one of the options floated in Europe over the last few days.

The reason for this abrupt change in Germany's tone can be explained by news of Russia's mobilisation against Austria. To figures like Jagow, this confirmed that Russia would not remain aloof as Serbia was destroyed. Since the war could not be isolated, it meant nothing less than its expansion, until everyone was pulled in. It was hard to imagine Germany faring well under these circumstances, when Britain was opaque but dubious, and the Italians were insisting that the alliance did not apply since Austria was the aggressor.

Jagow and Bethmann Hollweg were thus on the same page, but how much could they get done with the Kaiser watching them so relentlessly, and blowing up in a rage at every slight that arrived by telegram. In Wilhelm's defence, the Tsar's confession that Russia had been mobilising for five days was a damning indictment of Russian policy, especially since he had asked Wilhelm to mediate from the beginning. The Kaiser did not give up, and buoyed by his Ministers, Austria was placed under maximum pressure to clarify its position and step back from the brink. Unfortunately, just as Germany's team got their act together, Austria's supporters moved into place as well, and the war edged ever closer...

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By the evening of 29 July, a new wave of panic was overcoming the German government. In Berlin, the question of restraining Austria had long been treated with a wink and a nod, but news of Russian mobilisation seemed to change everything.

For Bethmann Hollweg and Jagow, this change moved them to take a stand against Austrian policy at long last. They demanded answers, compromise, and more information, and the Chancellor was willing to go further still. Although long since forgotten in the mad scramble that followed, Bethmann was sufficiently alarmed to advocate the nuclear option - he would cancel the blank cheque entirely, if Austria did not see sense.

This message would be as terrifying as it was confusing for the Austrians, who had frequently been assured of their ally's solidarity, and of their freedom to craft whatever policy they wanted. But with Britain stating its conditional neutrality, France and Russia united in their defiance, and now Italy complaining more forcefully about Austrian behaviour, not even Berlin could ignore that Vienna was forcing it towards the abyss. The real question for the German government as the 29 July became 30 July, was whether they would pull back, or jump.

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Austria's bombardment of Belgrade represented the first shots of the First World War, though contemporaries could not have known this yet - they were more focused on what Russia was doing.

As news of Russia's partial mobilisation filtered through Europe, it caused a major crisis in the German Foreign Office. For Jagow, Germany's Foreign Minister and director of its policy towards Austria since the beginning, Russia's preparations meant nothing less than the complete collapse of his entire world view.

If Russia would not stand back and permit Austrian justice, then surely that meant war was inevitable?

Desperate to avoid the European war he feared, Jagow went to great lengths to work out a solution. He believed he found it in the partnership with Bethmann Hollweg, the Chancellor he had spent several weeks undermining. If these two German statesmen could put their heads together, and wrest concessions or at least some answers out of Vienna, perhaps the ruin of their country could be avoided. Troubling signals suggested it would not be easy, yet having led Germany to this point, neither man had much choice but to try.

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As we release our fifth episode of the Age of Bismarck, I decided to take advantage of Patreon's new special offer feature, and give you the chance to get 50% off your first month of support! Maybe you're unsure, so why not listen to this extended teaser from the first episode of the Age of Bismarck?

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As they had done up to this point, the British continued to try to find a diplomatic solution to the crisis, even as the opportunities shrank before their eyes. Amidst warnings pinged between London and Berlin that under certain circumstances, their respective neutrality could not be guaranteed, the German Chancellor sent an ill-advised appeal for the British to stay out. The effort was likely influenced by the atmosphere of panic then building in Berlin, owing to news of Russian preparations.

As the scales were falling from the eyes of those that had always insisted on Russian neutrality, Bethmann Hollweg created headaches for himself with his explanation of German policy. Germany would not harm the Dutch, nor take any French territory. But what of French colonies, and what of Belgium? To this, Bethmann could make no promises, and here was perhaps his greatest error in the crisis. It seemed small on paper, but for those in Britain eager to weigh in on the Entente side, Bethmann's dishonourable bargain was just what was needed to raise suspicions against Berlin, and undermine the anti-war party.

They needed such German errors, because the British Cabinet remained divided and incredibly suspicious of any foreign entanglements. Though high profile agitators like Grey, Churchill, Asquith and perhaps Lloyd George worked in the background, the British public were against joining the war. Some Cabinet members longed for the opportunity to test their support in Parliament, perhaps even collapsing the government, but Grey would never let it get that far. He kept quiet and non-committal, even as time was drawing near for Britain to declare itself.

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The dawn of a new day did not bring any new peacemaking opportunities. In their own way, Austria, Germany and Russia were immovable in their main goal - they would not back down, even if it cost them everything.

That such a roadblock sat in the way of peace did not prevent Kaiser Wilhelm and Tsar Nicholas from engaging in their famed, eleventh hour telegram exchange. The Nicky-Willy telegrams have often been highlighted as an example of the inherent pacifism of these conservative monarchs, but what hope did this initiative really have?

One emerging issue was the increased tensions between Austria and Germany. Despite urging them to do so for several days, Vienna had not provided its ally with any plans for its post-war treatment of Serbia. Frustrated with Austrian intransigence and the refusal to grant concessions to Italy, the German Chancellor pursued a short-lived but incredibly fascinating mission - to drive it home to Austria that if she would not clarify her aims or help herself, Germany was not willing to do the work for her.

This potential fracture in the Austro-German camp would only be healed if Russia acted pre-emptively, and engaged in mobilisation. But then again, the Russians could ask, if Germany had not been able to stop Austria to this point, was there any hope she could stop her now? If German influence in Vienna had declined, German mediation may be of little use. And if Germany was still influential, why had she allowed matters to get this far, if she had not agreed with what Austria was doing?

It was lose lose for Berlin, and not even the spectacle of the two cousins hissing at each other through barely veiled good wishes could mask the fact that matters had gone very far indeed from the heady days of early July. Russia was mobilising, and though she had not prepared her entire army, she was clearly unwilling to let Austria away with it. Her motives for doing so, and the excuses made to justify such a provocative step, are worth examining, because they get to the root of the July Crisis quandary. Did these contemporaries know what they were doing, or were they blindly following the suggested script off the edge of the abyss?

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