Lots of people enjoy a flutter – but have you ever considered betting on a US strike on Iran? Or when Russia will take control of a village in the Donbass? Or what day a head of state might be killed?

It’s a macabre thought for even the most compulsive gambler – but punters are betting millions of dollars on prediction sites like Polymarket and Kalshi, which both have links to Donald Trump Jr.

High stakes bets on specific acts of war have led to allegations of insider trading and potential market manipulation.

Niall discusses Polymarket and the ethics of wartime betting with Sam Doak of Sky News’ Data and Forensics unit.

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