The forecasting community is failing because it is not focused on how the world actually works.

This post has been written in response to the Manifund Essay Prize which asks “How can we leverage forecasting into better decisions?”

Who am I to make such an outlandish claims?

• I worked at HM Treasury as senior policy advisor across multiple policy areas, including international development, relations, and I led the team for HMTs economic and financial response to the war in Ukraine.
• I have an MSc in Cognitive and Decision Sciences from UCL, where I led experimental research into how to improve forecasting ability of policy makers and analysts in central government.
• I started a consultancy with one of the world leading researchers in computational psychology and causal modelling to improve predictive reasoning.
• I am now the Executive Director of the Swift Centre for Applied Forecasting, where I have led numerous forecasting workshops and small projects with government teams, including the Cabinet Office, HM Treasury, Department for Science, Innovation and Technology. I have also led projects and workshops with organisations working on AI capabilities, risks, and policy, including GovAI and frontier labs.

• Through all of this I have met [...]

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Outline:

(00:10) The forecasting community is failing because it is not focused on how the world actually works.

(01:47) 1. Were Obsessing Over Question Wording But Not The Question

(03:01) 2. Transparency is the Real Value, Yet Everyone Focuses on the Accuracy Status Game

(04:21) 3. The Clearance Filter

(05:23) 4. Misallocation of Resources: Researching the Problem to Death

(07:30) 5. Even the Believers Never Really Jumped Aboard

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First published:

Source:

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.