Here’s the key news in Aotearoa’s political economy over the last day or so around housing, climate and poverty, along with analysis and detail in the video and podcast above, and in the PDF of the presentation attached below, for paying subscribers:

* Households slammed by rampant electricity, fuel and government charges inflation are being forced to cut back on discretionary spending on going out, shoes, clothes and holidays, which is reflected in the latest card spending data for May.

* Over half of the kids living in New Zealand’s poorest households are homeless, according to a new report this morning from the Coalition to end Women’s Homelessness.

* The Quote of the day is the video above and presentation below is from a pregnant homeless woman on why she won’t disclose her pregnancy, quoted in the report.

* The Scoop of the day is that $2.5 million a year is being paid to MPs for Wellington housing, as reported by Charlie Mitchell for The Press.(link below)

* The Deep-dive of the day is about a five-year-old living in a cold garage in Auckland, as reported by Michael Morrah for NZ Herald (link below).

* The Chart du jour shows a slump in Singapore petrol, diesel and jetful stocks in recent weeks.

Paying subscribers get the full Picks n’ Mixes below and access to Substack Live Chorus sessions, along with the PDF of the presentation used in the Substack Live attached below. If we get more than 100 likes I’ll open it up for the public.

Why shops & bars are closing despite a spending ‘recovery’

Card spending bounced back slightly in May, but it’s not flowing through any spending recovery into shops, pubs and cafes because consumers are having to spend their repressed real wages on ‘essentials’ such as fuel, electricity, food and insurance where inflation has been higher than other goods and services.

This chart from ANZ’s most recent card spending figures show the nominal growth in spending via cards on retail and everything else in the blue and the red is the real spending.

Apart from fast food, which may be a substitute for groceries, discretionary spending has been weak for most of the last three years.

We are back to the levels we were at just before COVID and for the last three to four years we’ve seen stagnating spending in real terms in non-grocery retail, hospitality, clothing, shoes and domestic holidays, despite real wages growth in most of that period.

We have had some periods, 2023 and again this year, when we’ve seen real wage deflation. But wages have been growing at around 2 to 3%. We’ve had occasional spikes, but you’d think there’d still be some more spending. And we are, in theory, going into recovery. The oil shock out of the Strait of Hormuz is playing a role, but that is really just for a couple of months.

I’m talking about a secular three to four year long recession in our retail, hospitality, and other discretionary spending. It’s down to fast growth in essentials inflation.

Hospitality has edged up slightly, but again, it’s been very flat for the last three or four years, with spending in bars down by more.

Its the items that aren’t discretionary that are hurting the most, including electricity, fuel, food and Government fees and charges.

Today’s Top Six Pick ‘n Mix

* Deep-dive by Michael Morrah for NZ Herald: Cold Auckland garage leaves disabled five-year-old at risk this winter

* Deep-dive by Amelia Wade for The Post-$: More than 33,000 children are homeless in Aotearoa. Most are invisible in the data

* Scoop by Andrea Vance for SST-$: The slash backlash: How forestry giants just softened post-Gabrielle environmental rules

* Scoop by Charlie Mitchell for The Press-$: Rules permit speaker Gerry Brownlee to claim $237,000 for staying in his Wellington townhouse

* Deep-dive by Lloyd Burr for Stuff: The Health of Nation: results are in, how do you compare? Nearly half have a long-term health condition, and for a quarter of them, it regularly impacts their daily lives. Stress, burnout, physical exhaustion and chronic pain is widespread, while fatigue and sleep problems are an issue for a large chunk of our population. A quarter claim their health is worse now than it was a year ago, with common health concerns including fitness and general wellbeing, weight management, aging, and mental health.’

* Column by Hayden Donnell for The Spinoff: Austerity is for poor people, not politicians ‘Belt-tightening, as it turns out, is location-specific. It affects you if you’re in a state house. It doesn’t if you’re in the house of representatives.’

Scoops & Breaking News

* Thomas Coughlan for NZ Herald-$: Revealed: Labour fumes as Govt ‘secretly’ spends $1b from next year’s Budget

* Marc Daalder for Newsroom Pro-$: Govt finds more Warmer Kiwi Homes savings as energy hardship spikes

* Andrea Vance for The Post-$: Whistleblower complaint triggered integrity probe into Mt Messenger highway project

* Sam Sachdeva for Newsroom Pro-$: ‘Slur on my reputation’: The spat behind housing boss exit

* Jenna Lynch for Stuff: Off the transplant list and too sick to go on: ACT MP with kidney disease to step out of politics

* Emma Gleason for The Spinoff: No one knows how many vape shops there are in New Zealand ‘They’re supposed to be highly regulated. So why can’t authorities provide a reliable figure?’

* Harriet Laughton for The Post-$: Funding shake‑up puts strain on support for sexual‑abuse survivors

* Reuters: Israel strikes Beirut despite truce, Iranian lawmker threatens to retaliate

* AP: Israel strikes Beirut’s southern suburbs days after US-supported ceasefire deal

The Rest of the Picks n’ Mixes

Cartoon of the day: Fairness, MPs & housing

Timeline-cleansing nature pic: Careful

Ka kite anō

Bernard

PS: Here’s the presentation I used above in PDF form.

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