The federal budget has become a hot-button topic with the emergence of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) led by Elon Musk. Feliciano School of Business Economics professor Todd Federman breaks down exactly why the promised "DOGE dividend" faces serious mathematical obstacles.

Federman starts with a clear analysis of federal finances: the government collects approximately $5 trillion annually, with half coming from income taxes and 36% from Social Security taxes. Meanwhile, government spending reaches around $7 trillion, creating a $2 trillion deficit. Of that $7 trillion, about $5 trillion goes to mandatory spending like Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and interest payments, leaving just $2 trillion in discretionary spending, half of which funds defense.

The reality is stark: DOGE's budget-cutting efforts target only about $1 trillion in spending. While they claim to have identified $100-150 billion in potential cuts over six weeks, these figures require careful scrutiny, as government budgets typically reference savings over ten-year periods. Even if DOGE achieves an ambitious $500 billion in annual cuts, returning $100 billion to taxpayers presents a logical paradox – the government would need to borrow that money to distribute it, potentially worsening the deficit and creating inflationary pressure.

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