We are seven months from election day in the United States and its outcome could prove to be the most significant since Abraham Lincoln was elected with less than 40% of the popular vote in 1860. Lincoln’s election is cited as the primary cause that triggered the US Civil War. With that in mind we ask the question: Will the United States be a safer place if Donald Trump wins or if he loses? 

In this episode of NOW and NEXT, we’re joined by veteran pollster, John Wright, SVP at Maru Public Opinion and David Schultz, professor of political science and constitutional law at Hamline University in Minnesota.
 
We explore the political landscape focusing on the dissonance between the political narrative and the state of the economy. 

• David Schultz: Generally, voters’ perceptions of the economy, along with approval rating for the president, are pretty good predictors - not guarantees but pretty good predictors - of what happens in elections. And even though all the numbers look pretty good in terms of the economy, it’s the inflation factor that's souring a lot of people right now. And this is the problem that Joe Biden faces.

• John Wright: “You see two things through my lens. Number one is this hyper -partisanship, which drives everything (in the U.S.). But secondly, it's a culture war in the United States. It doesn't surprise me at all that in the last week, Joe Biden has decided with his vice president to go after the Roe v. Wade vote. I mean that's that's the counter measure to the economic piece that's on the other side of the aisle. It just seems that it's not just about the economy, it's about the culture of the United States.”

The polarization and extreme partisanship in the United States is driven by cultural issues and amplified by social media bubbles. And the ultimate result will come down to a small number of voters in 5 or 6 counties in 5 or 6 states. 

• David Schultz: “I describe it this way. 5 -5 -5, 270 or 6 -6 -6, 270. Either 5 % of the voters in 5 counties and 5 states tell us who gets to 270 electoral votes or 6 % of the voters roughly in 6 counties and 6 states."

• John Wright: “It would be like trying to figure out the national election based on doing all of your polling in Cornwall Ontario.”