Rates fall for the third day in a row after inflation data shows price growth hitting a three-year high, Economic growth revised downward in Q1; durable goods orders pop in April; jobless claims hit a 5-week high; and new home sales fall more than expected in April.

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The European Central Bank released a concerning report about the impact of the war in the Middle East, a troubling report says Putin may expand the war into Europe, and consumer confidence holds strong in May despite headwinds

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Positive news out of the Middle East causes rates to fall for just the second time in two weeks. Residential construction is mostly positive in April, the House overwhelmingly passes a Housing Bill, manufacturing falls in Philly, and the FOMC minutes show talks of a possible rate hike.

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Mortgage rates continue to rise as bond yields rise across the globe. Robin Brooks wrote on his Substack that bond yields are rising for temporary reasons (Iran war) and for structural problems (rising debt issuance among almost all nations. The Wall Street Journal reports that Iran and the US are showing no signs of moving any closer to a deal to end the war. The UN announces slowing economic growth for the global economy. And pending home sales rise in April, but not as much as expected.

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It's been a rough two days for the bond market, with yields up 16 points in the last two trading days as bond investors are worried that the new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's dovish approach to monetary policy could cause inflation to spike. In other news: Homebuilder confidence rose more than expected in May, and homebuilders face an increase in lawsuits, which can raise the cost of home building.

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We saw a slight drop in rates on Thursday as markets reacted to President Trump's meeting with Xi Jinping in China, retail sales rising in April but not as much as inflation, and jobless claims rising for the second straight week but remain close to two-year lows...

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The US Senate confirmed Kevin Warsh as the 17th Federal Reserve Chairman, producer prices skyrocketed in April, bond investors are worried about inflation, and the 30-year treasury auction was not very good...

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Uncertainty surrounding the British Prime Minister pushed the 30-year gilt yield to near a 30-year high, while April’s CPI report showed energy prices continuing to surge, sending consumer inflation to nearly a three-year high. Meanwhile, the Treasury’s latest 10-year auction saw weak demand, adding more pressure to bond markets, though a new household debt report suggested consumers are still managing debt responsibly.

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Rates moved higher as uncertainty in the Middle East intensified after President Trump called Iran’s latest counteroffer “totally unacceptable” and warned the ceasefire was on “life support,” raising fears of renewed tensions and higher oil prices.Meanwhile, a proposal to suspend the federal gas tax is gaining traction in Washington, while existing-home sales increased in April, though the gain came in below economists’ expectations.

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Rates pulled back slightly on Thursday as Iran had not agreed to talks about a longer ceasefire, jobless claims rose slightly from last week's 7-year low, and mid and long-term consumer inflation expectations held steady despite a rise in short-term expectations.

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