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Record levels of debt requires record selling of bonds. This pushes bond interest rates higher.
Until the government starts paying down debt, bond interest rates will remain elevated.
When bond yields (interest) increase, institutional investors tend to move out of the stock market and into the bond market. Many institutional investors like banks, insurance companies, and pension funds are focused on obtaining steady consistent cash flow to pay their liabilities than accumulation. These large institutional investors have the ability move markets. Historically, when the 10 year bond approaches a 5% yield, the stock market typically declines. The 10 year bond has recently increased to 4.7%. Mortgage rates are affected more by the 10 year bond than the Federal Reserve. 30 year fixed mortgage rates are typically the 10 year bond rate plus 2-3 points. Increasing bond rates equal increasing mortgage rates. We will likely see 8% 30 fixed mortgages as the norm soon. Blackrock, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, and Vanguard analysts all predict S&P 500 index returns will average 3-5% annually for the next decade. If the analysts are correct, Your Personal Bank dividends, annuities, and guaranteed lifetime income will all outperform the S&P 500 over the next decade without market risk and tax-favored.Some of the problems we have as a country can be fixed rather quickly. The border can be closed. Illegals can be deported. We can stop funding other countries and supporting forever wars.
Other problems will take more time. You don't pay down $36T of debt overnight. Even if the Trump administration does everything right financially and Elon and Vivek with DOGE reduce waste and increase efficiency, it may be years before the debt is reduced to healthy manageable levels.
What should we expect in 2025 and beyond? The longer-term future has the potential to be bright. We have some challenges to overcome over the next year or so before we get there. This will likely create volatility. Blackrock, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, and Vanguard analysts all predict S&P 500 index returns will average 3-5% annually for the next decade. If the analysts are correct, Your Personal Bank dividends, annuities, and guaranteed lifetime income will all outperform the S&P 500 over the next decade without market risk and tax-favored. Many financial experts are calling this the "golden age" of fixed investments. Even if the Trump administration does everything right, some problems will take a while to fix. Debt is a major challenge.
Record levels of debt requires record selling of bonds. This pushes bond interest rates higher.
Until the government starts paying down debt, bond interest rates will remain elevated.
At the same time, the Federal Reserve is lowering borrowing costs by reducing interest rates.
This creates an opportunity.
Your Personal Bank allows you to earn dividends (likely increasing) while accessing funds to pay off debt, purchase items, or invest in assets.
If dividends are higher than the borrowing costs, you keep the difference. This creates positive cash flow (positive arbitrage) on your money.
We are likely headed to a historical positive arbitrage scenario.
Historically, positive arbitrage has been available 24 of the past 28 years. The other 4 years the dividends and borrowing costs were similar. The average annual positive arbitrage was 2-3%. This is interest you earn on money you spent or allocated elsewhere!
Record levels of debt requires record selling of bonds. This pushes bond interest rates higher.
Until the government starts paying down debt, bond interest rates will remain elevated.
At the same time, the Federal Reserve is lowering borrowing costs by reducing interest rates.
This creates an opportunity.
Your Personal Bank allows you to earn dividends (likely increasing) while accessing funds to pay off debt, purchase items, or invest in assets.
If dividends are higher than the borrowing costs, you keep the difference. This creates positive cash flow (positive arbitrage) on your money.
We are likely headed to a historical positive arbitrage scenario.
Historically, positive arbitrage has been available 24 of the past 28 years. The other 4 years the dividends and borrowing costs were similar. The average annual positive arbitrage was 2-3%. This is interest you earn on money you spent or allocated elsewhere!
Record levels of debt requires record selling of bonds. This pushes bond interest rates higher.
Until the government starts paying down debt, bond interest rates will remain elevated.
At the same time, the Federal Reserve is lowering borrowing costs by reducing interest rates.
This creates an opportunity.
Your Personal Bank allows you to earn dividends (likely increasing) while accessing funds to pay off debt, purchase items, or invest in assets.
If dividends are higher than the borrowing costs, you keep the difference. This creates positive cash flow (positive arbitrage) on your money.
We are likely headed to a historical positive arbitrage scenario.
Historically, positive arbitrage has been available 24 of the past 28 years. The other 4 years the dividends and borrowing costs were similar. The average annual positive arbitrage was 2-3%. This is interest you earn on money you spent or allocated elsewhere!
Even if the Trump administration does everything right, some problems will take a while to fix. Debt is a major challenge.
Record levels of debt requires record selling of bonds. This pushes bond interest rates higher.
Until the government starts paying down debt, bond interest rates will remain elevated.
At the same time, the Federal Reserve is lowering borrowing costs by reducing interest rates.
This creates an opportunity.
Your Personal Bank allows you to earn dividends (likely increasing) while accessing funds to pay off debt, purchase items, or invest in assets.
If dividends are higher than the borrowing costs, you keep the difference. This creates positive cash flow (positive arbitrage) on your money.
We are likely headed to a historical positive arbitrage scenario.
Historically, positive arbitrage has been available 24 of the past 28 years. The other 4 years the dividends and borrowing costs were similar. The average annual positive arbitrage was 2-3%. This is interest you earn on money you spent or allocated elsewhere!
Investors either don't see risks or don't care about them.
AI optimists are behaving like the investors who got burned in the Great Depression and dot-com bubble, Vanguard's chief economist warns. The Stock Market Is Doing Something It's Never Done Before - Investors Could Be "Playing With Fire," According to Warren Buffett The Buffett Indicator shows US stocks are overvalued at 200% of GDP, one of the highest levels in history. Blackrock, Goldmann Sachs, and Vanguard all predict low stock returns (3-5% annually) for the next decade. Many financial experts are calling this the "golden age" of fixed investments.Even if the Trump administration does everything right, some problems will take a while to fix. Debt is a major challenge.
Record levels of debt requires record selling of bonds. This pushes bond interest rates higher.
Until the government starts paying down debt, bond interest rates will remain elevated.
At the same time, the Federal Reserve is lowering borrowing costs by reducing interest rates.
This creates an opportunity.
Your Personal Bank allows you to earn dividends (likely increasing) while accessing funds to pay off debt, purchase items, or invest in assets.
If dividends are higher than the borrowing costs, you keep the difference. This creates positive cash flow (positive arbitrage) on your money.
We are likely headed to a historical positive arbitrage scenario.
Historically, positive arbitrage has been available 24 of the past 28 years. The other 4 years the dividends and borrowing costs were similar. The average annual positive arbitrage was 2-3%. This is interest you earn on money you spent or allocated elsewhere!
Even if the Trump administration does everything right, some problems will take a while to fix. Debt is a major challenge.
Record levels of debt requires record selling of bonds. This pushes bond interest rates higher.
Until the government starts paying down debt, bond interest rates will remain elevated.
At the same time, the Federal Reserve is lowering borrowing costs by reducing interest rates.
This creates an opportunity.
Your Personal Bank allows you to earn dividends (likely increasing) while accessing funds to pay off debt, purchase items, or invest in assets.
If dividends are higher than the borrowing costs, you keep the difference. This creates positive cash flow (positive arbitrage) on your money.
We are likely headed to a historical positive arbitrage scenario.
Historically, positive arbitrage has been available 24 of the past 28 years. The other 4 years the dividends and borrowing costs were similar. The average annual positive arbitrage was 2-3%. This is interest you earn on money you spent or allocated elsewhere!With 35+ years of investing experience and thousands of (personally) completed real estate deals, hundreds of millions of dollars raised, John Burley has the perfect mix of street-savvy knowledge and sound investing principles.
John is a Pioneer in the Real Estate Investment Business, originally trained in the World of Wall St., in 1989 he left and founded his Private Equity Company, where he serves today as the Founder & CEO. It is a leader in the industry, with holdings from multiple countries and a dozen different states. His was among the first ever companies to bring Single Family Home (SFH) Portfolio Real Estate to the Private Equity Community.
John is an International #1 Best Seller with over One Million Copies Sold. His books include: Money Secrets of the Rich and Powerful Changes. He has also produced over 100 books and audio programs during his career.
Because John is a Professional Investor, he makes his living actually DOING deals and not just teaching theory from the stage. The bottom line is: John walks his talk. For this reason, John is only available to speak at a few events per year, his last event for 2019 is November 1-3.
John greatly looks forward to sharing with you what you need to take your Real Estate Investing Business to the next level.
Even if the Trump administration does everything right, some problems will take a while to fix. Debt is a major challenge.
Record levels of debt requires record selling of bonds. This pushes bond interest rates higher.
Until the government starts paying down debt, bond interest rates will remain elevated.
At the same time, the Federal Reserve is lowering borrowing costs by reducing interest rates.
This creates an opportunity.
Your Personal Bank allows you to earn dividends (likely increasing) while accessing funds to pay off debt, purchase items, or invest in assets.
If dividends are higher than the borrowing costs, you keep the difference. This creates positive cash flow (positive arbitrage) on your money.
We are likely headed to a historical positive arbitrage scenario.
Historically, positive arbitrage has been available 24 of the past 28 years. The other 4 years the dividends and borrowing costs were similar. The average annual positive arbitrage was 2-3%. This is interest you earn on money you spent or allocated elsewhere!Even if the Trump administration does everything right, some problems will take a while to fix. Debt is a major challenge.
Record levels of debt requires record selling of bonds. This pushes bond interest rates higher.
Until the government starts paying down debt, bond interest rates will remain elevated.
At the same time, the Federal Reserve is lowering borrowing costs by reducing interest rates.
This creates an opportunity.
Your Personal Bank allows you to earn dividends (likely increasing) while accessing funds to pay off debt, purchase items, or invest in assets.
If dividends are higher than the borrowing costs, you keep the difference. This creates positive cash flow (positive arbitrage) on your money.
We are likely headed to a historical positive arbitrage scenario.
Historically, positive arbitrage has been available 24 of the past 28 years. The other 4 years the dividends and borrowing costs were similar. The average annual positive arbitrage was 2-3%. This is interest you earn on money you spent or allocated elsewhere!
Drill, Baby, Drill
Energy prices affect nearly every product we purchase. Higher energy costs increase prices and inflation.
Increased production will lower energy prices. Lower energy prices will reduce inflation.
Deport illegal immigrants
Total cost to transport, house, feed, and support estimated about $500 billion annually.
This money came from taxpayers and government money printing. This is inflationary.
The government money was being used to compete for food, clothing, housing, and everything we purchase.
Deporting illegal immigrants will reduce housing demand.
The US has a housing shortage. Allowing millions of people in the country when you have a housing shortage will drive up the cost of housing. They have to live somewhere.
Fewer people will reduce housing demand. Housing costs will likely decrease. The effect will be regional.
Think about Springfield, Ohio. The government moved about 30,000 Haitians into a town of about 50,000. Housing costs skyrocketed. What will happen if the Haitians are returned to Haiti? There will be thousands of empty homes and apartments. Prices will drop.
Stop endless wars
The US government spends far more than any other country on defense spending.
I am in favor of a strong military. Most Americans are against war unless necessary to defend ourselves or interests that are vital for our national security.
Excessive spending is inflationary. Wars are expensive. Defense contractors make lots of money from war. Nearly everyone else loses either in blood or money. Less spending would reduce inflation.
Dept of Government Efficiency – Elon Musk
Elon has stated he can reduce $2 trillion in annual spending.
2024 spent $6.75 T, revenues $4.9 T = $1.85 T deficit spending
Reducing government spending will reduce inflation.
Even if the Trump administration does everything right, some problems will take a while to fix. Debt is a major challenge.
Record levels of debt requires record selling of bonds. This pushes bond interest rates higher.
Until the government starts paying down debt, bond interest rates will remain elevated.
At the same time, the Federal Reserve is lowering borrowing costs by reducing interest rates.
This creates an opportunity.
Your Personal Bank allows you to earn dividends (likely increasing) while accessing funds to pay off debt, purchase items, or invest in assets.
If dividends are higher than the borrowing costs, you keep the difference. This creates positive cash flow (positive arbitrage) on your money.
We are likely headed to a historical positive arbitrage scenario.
Historically, positive arbitrage has been available 24 of the past 28 years. The other 4 years the dividends and borrowing costs were similar. The average annual positive arbitrage was 2-3%. This is interest you earn on money you spent or allocated elsewhere!
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