U.S. President Obama has won a 2nd term in office last week, but the markets have reacted to two seemingly more important issues. In this November 2012 Market Update, Daniel Kertcher discusses the fallout from the recent U.S. Election results, the Top 500 U.S. Company earnings reporting season, the European Debt Crisis plus the looming U.S. Fiscal Cliff deadline coming in December.
Hi! Daniel Kertcher, CEO and Founder of Trading Pursuits. And, this is my global market update for November 2012.
Now before we get started, there’s just a couple of little disclaimer things I need to share with you. Number one, what you’re seeing today is what we call General Advice. It’s not individual, specific advice. Furthermore, we haven’t taken into consideration your own personal financial objectives. Trading involves risk. Should you choose to make any trades, those are your own decisions and you take your own risks. And finally, my company, Trading Pursuits, we hold an Australian financial services license.
Okay, well this month we’ve seen the finalization of the top 500 companies in America making their earnings announcements. And that of course is every three months, the top companies or all public companies for that matter have to make their profit/loss statements.
What we can see here is that for the top 500 companies in America, almost every single one of them has now made their earnings announcement. And, we’ve seen that there’s been an earnings surprise- that is, close to 3.69% of the Top 500 Companies have had greater earnings than expected.
However, if you’ll look next to that- you’ll see the sales surprise is actually been lower. So what this simply means is, that companies have been making less sales, less revenue than expected, but actually greater profits than expected.
So that could be through cost cutting, laying-off staff, improving modernizations of their factories, etc. So, it’s a good sign that companies are growing their profits. But, analysts are pretty spot-on with the amount of sales that they’re expecting the companies should be making right now.
Now despite this seemingly good news, the US Stock Market has had a substantial drop in the last month. Now of course, in the last month, we of course are aware of the US government election won by Barack Obama.
Now, in the last review I did last month, I mentioned that the market was going sideways and it will lead up to that decision, that election. Now that we’ve seen the results, I suspect that the market may have just continued moving in the same trend it was on before.
However, following the election, we had two major announcements. Number one was the European drama. And that is the European credit crisis has flared up even further and further talk of what’s known as the US fiscal cliff.
So what we can see is that in the last month or so, the S&P 500 value has dropped close to by a hundred points. Now the overall index itself is stumped by over a hundred percent in the last 3-4 years, but it’s dropped 8% in the last month alone. In effect 1,350 points. As we see in the graph, it could easily fall back down into the 1,200’s or even the 1,100’s level.
So, what are we talking about this two particular points- well, despite the fact that US unemployment is still in a downwards trend, which is good, it’s still quite high, up near the high 7% range. Now, the European debt crisis problem. This is again, flared up with again, Germany, France, Greece, Spain, Portugal, Italy, etc. struggling to come to agreements to deal with the European debt crisis.
What we have seen in the last couple of days though, is that there has been an extension granted to Greece. And, that is they have an additional two more years, and Greece has only just literally recently announced that they passed their austerity measures.
So, Greece is doing the right thing as far as the rest of the [...]