Zitamar Podcast

Daniel Chapo, governor of the southern Mozambican province of Inhambane, arrived in Matola on 3 May to participate in the ruling party Frelimo's selection of its next presidential candidate. Two days later, he left the meeting as the candidate elect — to the surprise of everyone, including himself.

So who is Daniel Chapo, why has he been selected for the top job, and what can we expect from a likely Chapo presidency?

Zitamar's Tom Bowker, Fernando Lima, and Tomas Queface discuss in this special edition of the Zitamar Podcast.

Read Zitamar's profile of Daniel Chapo here: Who is Daniel Chapo, the prospective next president of Mozambique?

And for more on how the selection was made: Daniel Chapo: the choice that surprised everyone

Image: President Filipe Nyusi (left) with his heir apparent, Daniel Chapo, at the extraordinary meeting of Frelimo's Central Committee in Matola, 5 May 2024. Photo courtesy of Frelimo

In this edition of the Zitamar Podcast, Zitamar News editor Tom Bowker talks to Alex Perry, the British journalist whose reporting of the siege of the Amarula during the attack on Palma in 2021 won him a major journalism award, and led him to carry out his own survey into exactly how many people were killed as insurgents rampaged through the town. He found that some 1,400 were dead or still missing, two years later; and his figures have now largely been endorsed by ACLED, Zitamar's partner on the Cabo Ligado project. He tells us how the survey came about, how it was conducted, and discusses whether TotalEnergies should bear any responsibility for the tragedy — and if so, whether the company can ever be held accountable.

In part two, Zitamar Podcast host and producer Tom Raine talks to Zitamar collaborator Tavares Cebola about recent developments in contemporary culture in Mozambique — including the rise in electronic music, the Azgo Festival coming up in May, and new theatre productions in central Mozambique.

Sign up to receive Zitamar's daily and weekly newsletters at www.zitamar.com, where you can also become a paying subscriber to receive access to all our breaking and archived news content, and the indispensable Zitamar Daily Briefing.

Join Zitamar News' editor in chief, Tom Bowker, in discussion with editor at large Fernando Lima and managing editor Tomás Queface, first recapping developments from Frelimo's Central Committee meeting, then taking a look at Mozambque's macroeconomic situation.

The second half of the podcast features the recording of an online briefing last week by Cabo Ligado, providing an update on the conflict in the north east of the country.

The Cabo Ligado webinar is also available on YouTube, where you can also see the presenters' slideshows: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=02eqiNUCkOs

Podcast timestamps:

Part 1: The latest from the Frelimo Central Committee

Part 2: Mozambique macroeconomy update (21:08)

Part 3: Cabo Ligado: Situation update and the unfolding violence in northern Mozambique (41:19)

Visit Zitamar News at www.zitamar.com

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In this episode, Tom Bowker and Fernando Lima discuss the shadow boxing around who will be Frelimo's next presidential candidate. Could Armando Guebuza make a shock return? Fernando also reports back from a recent visit to Afungi - an oasis of calm and development amid growing chaos and violence elsewhere in Cabo Delgado, as Tom Gould explains.

Welcome back to the Zitamar Podcast, with a special episode looking ahead at what 2024 holds for Mozambique.

Zitamar editors Tom Bowker and Fernando Lima discuss general elections due to take place in October - and the fraught processes that Frelimo, Renamo, and MDM face in choosing their candidates.

Tom Gould gives an overview of the current state of play in Cabo Delgado, where a resurgent conflict could derail or at least delay a restart in the LNG project led by TotalEnergies.

And finally, Tavares Cebola joins Tom Raine to discuss Mozambique's participation in the football African Cup of Nations - and a famous victory that almost was.

Visit www.zitamar.com for more insights into Mozambique, and to sign up for our Daily Briefing email. Subscribe to this podcast through Afripods, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.

Hello and welcome to the latest Zitamar Podcast, featuring news and views on Mozambique's political and economic outlook, from the Zitamar team and special guests.

The news round-up focuses on three big stories from the past week. Contributing editor Fernando Lima provides his take on the fuel price rises and the urban transport strikes that have ensued, and looks at how the government can and should respond to them.

He also assesses the likely impact of coal miner Jindal's decision to quit using the Sena rail line to take coal from Tete to the port of Beira, switching instead to its recently acquired export terminal at Nacala. The move is more bad news for Beira and the province of Sofala as a whole.

READ: Jindal drops Beira corridor to send all its coal via Nacala (£)

Then, Zitamar reporter Tom Gould gives us the inside line on the news that Plexus Cotton is ready to walk away from Cabo Delgado, potentially leaving tens of thousands of farmers broke and angry – the opposite of what the government is trying to achieve in the troubled province. Tom was at the Chatham House meeting where Plexus raised the alarm – though we understand talks are ongoing to keep Plexus' Mozambican operation afloat.

READ: Cabo Delgado cotton farmers on the brink as Plexus warns it can't go on

This week features an interview with Charlie Robertson (Twitter's @RencapMan) on how Mozambique's high fertility level could be leading the country into another debt crisis — and how the way to escape the trap is to drastically improve levels of education.

Charlie is chief economist at Renaissance Capital and has been covering Africa for over 10 years. His new book, The Time-Travelling Economist, brings together much of what he has learned over that period, and the conclusions he has drawn – in particular the key roles of fertility, education, and electricity in determining development outcomes.

The book is available to buy on Amazon here, in digital format here, and the whole introduction can be read for free here. The opinion piece which kicked off our conversation is online here: Sociopathic economists and the coming high fertility crisis.

Sign up to our newsletter at www.zitamarnews.substack.com, or through our main website www.zitamar.com, to receive this podcast by email, or you can also find us on podcast apps and on Spotify, which is currently perhaps the easiest way of subscribing to the show and making sure you don't miss an episode.

Until the next time.

Welcome to this week's Zitamar Podcast, featuring news and analysis from Zitamar's editor, Tom Bowker, and the Mozambican journalist and pundit Fernando Lima.

First, Tom and Fernando discussed the reaction in Mozambique to their election as a non-permanent member to the UN Security Council, an event which has instilled a strong feeling of pride within many Mozambicans.

They then turned to news that Cabo Delgado insurgents have extended their offensive into Ancuabe district, the first confirmed attack in the district since the insurgency began four and a half years ago. Fernando and Tom offer their analysis on both the humanitarian consequences of these attacks and the impact to local graphite projects which have been targeted.

You can read more here on the Zitamar News website:

* Insurgents extend offensive into Ancuabe district

* Insurgents behead two workers at Australian mining operation in Ancuabe

We also discussed the Frelimo Central Committee meeting that took place a few weeks ago, with questions remaining over whether President Nyusi will be allowed to run for a third term, and the news that South Africa has ruled against extraditing former finance minister Manuel Chang to the USA, rather than Mozambique.

Sign up to our newsletter at zitamarnews.substack.com, or through our main website zitamar.com, to receive this podcast by email. You can also find us on podcast apps and on Spotify, probably the easiest way of subscribing to the show and making sure you don't miss an episode.

Make sure to share, review and subscribe to the Zitamar Podcast wherever you find it.

Welcome to this week's Zitamar Podcast, featuring news and analysis from the Zitamar team who discuss the week's most important events.

The war in Ukraine has meant talk of a transition away from fossil fuels has taken a back seat — particularly in places like Mozambique, which could be an important provider of coal and gas as western countries stop buying from Russia.

Brazilian mining company Vale this week tied up its sale of the Moatize coal mining project to India's Jindal — then revealed that the project had had perhaps its most profitable quarter ever, in Q1 this year.

Vale's coal mine turns 38% profit as prices spike ahead of cut-price sale to Jindal

A senior official at the energy ministry confirmed Mozambique cannot afford to stop exporting coal — and his boss, minister Max Tonela, said the gas industry will bring new opportunities.

We should soon hear from the IMF about its outlook for the Mozambican economy, but all the signs are that it sees gas as crucial to Mozambique's future. One way the gas revenues can affect the future of Mozambique is through the establishment of a sovereign wealth fund — and one of the conversations you'll hear in this podcast is with sovereign wealth fund expert Andrew Bauer, on the pitfalls Mozambique needs to look out for if it goes down that road. This section starts on 15:51 minutes.

Tanzania is also looking to get its dormant LNG project off the ground, something that will play in to increasingly complex relationships between Mozambique and its neighbours in East Africa and the Great Lakes. In the wake of President Nyusi's trip to Uganda this week, we spoke to Peter Bofin of the Cabo Ligado project to try and unpick the different dynamics at play. Peter's interview begins at 33:33.

But we start off with a look back at the week's political and economic developments, with Zitamar editor Tom Bowker, and Mozambican journalist Fernando Lima.

Sign up to our newsletter at zitamarnews.substack.com, or through our main website www.zitamar.com, to receive this podcast by email, or you can also find us on podcast apps and on Spotify, which is currently perhaps the easiest way of subscribing to the show and making sure you don't miss an episode.

RECENT POSTS

* Eight consortia vie for Mphanda Nkuwa megaproject

* Vale's coal mine turns 38% profit as prices spike ahead of cut-price sale to Jindal

* Mozambique and Malawi plan joint infrastructure projects

Welcome to this week's Zitamar Podcast, featuring news and analysis from the Zitamar team who discuss the week's most important events.

As well as our regular look-back at the week's news, this podcast features two excellent interviews with special guests. The first is Corinna Jentzsch, whose new book: Violent Resistance: Militia Formation and Civil War in Mozambique looks at the use of local militia in Mozambique's civil war with Renamo. She discusses what lessons can be drawn from that experience, to understand what's happening today in Cabo Delgado.

In the third section, journalist and veteran Mozambique election-watcher Joe Hanlon shares his views on what to expect in the coming electoral cycle.

The podcast starts with a look back at the biggest news stories of the week, with Zitamar editor Tom Bowker, and consulting editor Fernando Lima — the author of an article published on Monday looking into the issues determining when the Mozambique LNG project, operated by TotalEnergies, is going to restart.

See: Pressure grows for Mozambique LNG restart, but security challenges remain

That was followed on Tuesday with our report that Rwandan troops have been deployed to Macomia — outside of the two districts of immediate importance to the gas projects

See: Rwandan troops in Cabo Delgado deploy to Macomia district

Bowker and Lima also discuss the visit to Mozambique of Malawian president Lazarus Chakwera, and the announcement of a list of companies competing to build the massive Mphanda Nkuwa dam project.

Sign up to our newsletter at zitamarnews.substack.com, or through our main website zitamar.com, to receive the podcast by email — and make sure to share, review and subscribe to the Zitamar Podcast on your preferred podcast provider.

Welcome to this week's Zitamar Podcast, featuring news and analysis from the Zitamar team who discuss the week's most important events, including analysis on civil servants returning to Mocímboa to Praia and insights from the annual private sector conference, CASP.

First, Zitamar News editor Tom Bowker spoke with Mozambican journalist and podcast regular Fernando Lima about the news that the IMF had agreed a new three-year programme with Mozambique, subject to executive board approval. The Fund announced the decision on Monday afternoon, and later that night, President Filipe Nyusi gave his take on developments, at a Frelimo party function in Inhambane — using it to get in a dig at his predecessor as president, Armando Guebuza.

We've included a short clip of Nyusi's comments, in Portuguese; find the full 6-minute audio on Telegram here.

Then, we turned to Cabo Delgado, where sources have suggested that civil servants may be returning back to Mocímboa da Praia, one of the first towns that was captured by insurgents when the conflict began in 2017. Our correspondent in the north, who prefers to remain anonymous, comments on these claims and casts doubts over their legitimacy.

The new Cabo Ligado weekly report is available here:

Cabo Ligado Weekly - March 2022

We then turned to news that Renamo has announced a "shadow government" to present alternative ideas on the development of Mozambique ahead of the next local elections in 2023 and general elections in 2024. Once again, analysis is provided by journalist Fernando Lima.

Finally we return to the economy, as the annual private sector conference CASP took place in Maputo this week. Businesspeople were in a downbeat mood after the central bank had raised interest rates earlier in the week, given supply constraints domestically and worldwide; but as Fernando explains, there was optimism from the government that the economy is on the right track.

Also this week from Zitamar News:

New gas bottling facility launched as part of mass switching campaign (£)

Sign up to our newsletter at zitamarnews.substack.com, or through our main website www.zitamar.com, to receive this podcast by email, or you can also find us on podcast apps and on Spotify, probably the easiest way of subscribing to the show and making sure you don't miss an episode.

Make sure to share, review and subscribe to the Zitamar Podcast wherever you find it.

Until next week, goodbye.