Zurich Monthly Investment Insights

Bond yields are soaring. Markets expect more rate hikes. But the outlook may not be quite that simple.
 
In the latest Monthly Investment Insights, Chief Market Strategist & Economist Guy Miller explores the key forces shaping global markets and what they could mean for investors in the months ahead.
- Government bond yields have reached multi-year highs, but valuations are beginning to look stretched.
- Markets may be pricing in too many future rate hikes, with central banks likely to remain hawkish but less aggressive than current expectations suggest.
- Equities remain the preferred asset class, supported by strong corporate profitability, resilient fundamentals and improving earnings prospects despite ongoing market skepticism.

Will central banks keep tightening, and what would that mean for markets?
 
In the latest Monthly Investment Insights, Chief Market Strategist & Economist Guy Miller breaks down the forces shaping markets as we move into September.
- Interest rates may rise further as economic growth remains more resilient than expected and inflation continues to track above central bank targets.
- A potential pain point has been reached in the US Treasury market, with policymakers signalling a willingness to intervene if long-term yields move significantly higher.
- Equities continue to be supported by strong fundamentals, with earnings growth, AI adoption and improving corporate profitability helping to drive market performance.

While higher rates remain a key risk to watch, robust earnings and broad market strength support a constructive outlook for equities in the months ahead.

What’s driving global markets in the second half of the year?

In the latest Mid-Year Outlook, Chief Market Strategist & Economist @Guy Miller breaks down why markets continue to surprise on the upside.

• Global growth remains steady
• Central banks may pause prolonged tightening
• Tech investment (especially AI and semiconductors) is driving momentum
• Equities still have room to run 

Despite geopolitical noise and oil shocks, markets are proving resilient, supported by liquidity, earnings and capital spending.

Inflation is rising again but markets are still moving higher. Are markets underestimating inflation risk or pricing in something bigger?

This month’s Investment Insights breaks down the real drivers behind investor optimism. Get the latest market perspective from Chief Market Strategist & Economist Guy Miller in his new Key Investment Insights video.

- Higher but manageable inflation
- Central banks switch to hawkish mode
- Equities have further to run

Get the latest market perspective from Chief Market Strategist Guy Miller in his new Key Investment Insights video.

This month's key points:
- Oil prices still extended as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed
- Stocks rebound as investors put the war behind them
- Corporate earnings are strong, with expectations are rising

Get the latest market perspective from Chief Market Strategist Guy Miller in his new Key Investment Insights video.

This month's key points:
- Global growth to withstand Mid East conflict
- Financial markets vulnerable to a setback
- US Supreme Court shows institutional integrity

Key developments:

• Equities start 2026 in rude health, and the MSCI World Index hits a record high as the rally broadens
• Geopolitical tensions pick up as Venezuela's President Maduro is ousted by the US, but the market reaction has been muted
• Government bond yields remain rangebound, supported by constructive inflation data, with little impact from geopolitical events