There is value in knowing what will happen in advance - if that is possible. But that's not the only value.

We are going through a transition from the 20C energy system (fossil fuels, centralized) to a 21C system (renewables, decentralized). Such changes take decades, say from 1990 to 2040, just like the transition from steam engines to the electrical grid took 50 years: 1890-1940. The transition involves tens of thousands of actors in science and engineering, finance, politics, management, accounting etc.

We're locked into categories defined and maintained by administrations. As categories and administrations change, so do our opinions of people around us, and so does even our sense of ourselves.

The changes (and lack thereof) of companies, government, and international organizations. All according to the adage: institutions only ever change in order to avoid even greater change.

A whirlwind view of finance and politics predicted for 2023 (in 9 minutes).

Softening up of the employer-employee relationship, softening up of the school(in a building)-student relationship, slight decrease in commuting, substantial decrease in flying.

The term "content provider" will sound old-fashioned. The exciting new experimentation will be on the emotional registers of the active creator-consumer in an omni-medium where content and money circulate in new ways.

IT in 2023: better connections, AI, digital ledger technologies, and VR. Also: personal identity and avatars. And as usual: while trying hard to predict, the purpose is elsewhere, namely in exploring what the activity of thinking about the future does.

IT in 2023 part 1, but also the main insight prompted by David Rich: the object of this experiment is to explore the value in thinking about the future BEYOND guessing correctly or incorrectly. This value could indeed be in the realm of therapy, piece of mind, stimulation, premonition, or pleasure.

This episode is not an 8-minute monologue but a 20-minute conversation. David Rich, who has spent many years in marketing and strategy for high-tech, talks about the practice of planning and predicting, both professionally and privately.