Five years after the European migration and refugee crisis, displacement remains a pressing issue worldwide. According to the UNHCR, the global number of forcibly displaced people passed 80 million during 2020 – the highest estimate ever recorded. Several factors have contributed to this increase, including a rise in political violence and instability, and extreme weather events. But when it comes to calculating how many might be moving due to climate change, there are challenges. Scientific literature hasn't provided a satisfactory answer. In a new article for Nature Communications, Sebastian Schutte, Jonas Vestby, Jørgen Carling and Halvard Buhaug seek to fill this gap and address factors for asylum migration to the European Union.

Related material

• The original study, published in Nature: "Climatic conditions are weak predictors of asylum migration"
• Or you can read a more popularised version in this PRIO Blog post

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