A US carrier group is racing toward Iran. Trump’s statements are swinging between threats and vague offers of a nuclear deal. Inside Tehran, unrest is spreading, and the regime’s most powerful security institutions are showing strain. But how much do Western intelligence services really know about what comes next, and how dangerous is this moment?
In this episode of The Fourcast, Paul McNamara talks to David McCloskey, a former CIA analyst who spent years covering Syria, Iraq and Iran from inside the Agency. He explains why Trump is harder to predict than the regimes analysts usually study, how Israel has been able to penetrate Iran’s security apparatus, and what a US strike package would actually look like.

Keir Starmer is in Beijing meeting Xi Jinping, as Britain looks to reset ties with China. Is this a glimpse of a new world order - one where America’s traditional allies start to look elsewhere? 

For some, it’s an inevitable response to the breakdown of the US-led order that could usher in a more balanced world that reflects growing power outside of the West. For others, it’s a dangerous shift accelerated by President Trump, that increases the risk of great-power war.

To discuss, I’m joined by Robert Kagan, a staff writer at The Atlantic and Washington foreign-policy insider whose ideas have shaped US strategy for decades, author and scholar Amitav Acharya, who has long criticised the US-led world order, and Nathalie Tocc, professor of practice at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, Europe, and a senior fellow at Bocconi University’s Institute for European Policymaking.

Keir Starmer has blocked Andy Burnham’s bid to run in the Gorton and Denton by-election, but has he just delayed the leadership challenge many in Westminster believe is inevitable?

If there is a challenge, does the Labour Party risk descending into the same internal conflicts that helped bring down the Conservatives?

Starmer's latest foreign destination is China for a meeting with President Xi but is travelling the globe as an international statesman staving off restless Labour MPs?

Meanwhile, he says his relentless focus is the cost-of-living crisis but are the public, or his MPs buying it?

On the latest episode of the Fourcast, Matt Frei is joined by our Senior Political Correspondent Paul McNamara, the I-paper's chief political commentator Kitty Donaldson, and Political Editor of the Liverpool Echo, Liam Thorp.

The government is weighing up whether or not to follow in Australia’s footsteps and ban social media for under-16s. Supporters argue that online safety efforts have failed and that children are being exposed to increasingly harmful content. Critics warn that a ban would isolate young people, let tech companies off the hook, and create a dangerous cliff-edge at 16.

Companies across the Big Tech sector have consistently said that protecting children is a priority, as is reducing the spread of disinformation on their platforms.

In today’s episode of The Fourcast, Cathy Newman speaks to Professor Kaitlyn Regehr, author of Smartphone Nation, and digital journalist Sophia Smith Galer, about what a ban would really achieve, whether regulation can ever keep pace with the platforms, and how algorithms amplify harm in ways that governments, and parents, struggle to control.

It was hoped the fall of Syria's former dictator Bashar al-Assad would usher in a period of stability, unity and perhaps - eventually - democracy.

But now the country enters a new and unpredictable phase as President Ahmed Al-Sharaa tightens his grip on power.In the north-east of the country the Kurds were the West’s key ally against Islamic State.

Now their control in the region is collapsing after days of fierce battles with government forces. A tentative ceasefire is in place but the fallout is far from clear, including the fate of thousands of ISIS prisoners and their families who were in Kurdish-controlled camps.Regional powers like Turkey and Iran, as well as China, Russia and the West are also jostling for influence.

Could these developments finally bring a period of calm and stability in Syria or just open the door to new dangers?
In this episode of The Fourcast, Jackie Long was joined by Channel 4 News International Editor Lindsey Hilsum and Lina Khatib, Principal Analyst at geopolitical foresight company ExTrac.

As Donald Trump marks a year back in office, his threats against Europe and hard-line trade policies are pushing his allies to the edge - while China and Russia, once considered America’s enemies, watch on with apparent glee.

And if the UK once thought flattery was the best form of defence, the president has put paid to that with potentially crushing tariffs and a swipe at Keir Starmer’s Chagos Islands deal - an agreement he had supposedly signed off on.

So how do we make sense of a global future in flux?On this episode of The Fourcast, Jackie Long was joined by geopolitical strategist Peter Zeihan.

Donald Trump wants Greenland - and he’s willing to use tariffs to get it.

If European allies refuse to sell, the US president has threatened to escalate trade penalties, weaponising economic pressure rather than military force. The proposal has sparked alarm across Europe, with some leaders calling for the EU to deploy its so-called “trade bazooka” in response. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer has warned that a trade war benefits nobody.

So is this just bluster - or the opening shot in a new phase of transatlantic economic conflict? And what would a trade war over a sparsely populated Arctic territory mean for the global economy?

On this episode of The Fourcast, we’re joined by Mark Leonard, Director of the European Council on Foreign Relations, speaking as he travels to the World Economic Forum in Davos, and our Economics Correspondent Helia Ebrahimi is in the studio to break down the economic stakes.

It’s been quite the week in Westminster. A sacking, a defection, and a deepening crisis on the right. Robert Jenrick’s move to Reform has capped off a dramatic few days for the Conservatives. While Nigel Farage has celebrated the moment, calling it a historic realignment of centre-right politics in the United Kingdom, the Prime Minister has described the Conservative Party as a "sinking ship".

So what does this mean for the future of the Conservatives? And what does Jenrick’s defection mean for Reform - is there a real possibility that Reform could win the next election?

Donald Trump is once again threatening to annex Greenland, but is it different this time? What once sounded like a joke, now feels like a genuine test of how far Europe is willing to stand up to its most powerful ally.

So is President Trump actually a bigger threat to Nato than President Putin? And if so, what should Europe do about it?

On this episode of The Fourcast, Jackie Long is joined by Channel 4 News International Editor Lindsey Hilsum and former Danish diplomat Jonas Parello-Plesner who led the foreign policy department at Denmark’s embassy in Washington from 2013 - 2017.

The Iranian regime is facing its most serious unrest in years - with protests sweeping Iran despite a near-total internet blackout and a deadly response from security forces. Donald Trump is threatening new tariffs, Western governments are debating whether to escalate sanctions and blacklist the IRGC and the German Chancellor says he believes the embattled Iranian government is in its "final days and weeks".One of the most outspoken voices on what should happen next is the comedian and actor Omid Djalili. Born in London to Iranian parents, he has been sharply critical of the regime, insistent that this is a genuine people’s uprising, and vocal about what he believes the international community must do next. He joined Matt Frei on this episode of The Fourcast.