The Fourcast

With the Budget just days away, Prime Minister Andy Burnham and Chancellor John Healey face some big decisions. How much can the government afford to spend? Who should pay more tax? And how on do they get Britain's economy growing at a faster rate?

But what if we're asking the wrong questions altogether?

One economist, Richard Murphy, argues that the government's obsession with borrowing, debt and so-called fiscal headroom is holding Britain back. He believes we have far more financial freedom than politicians would have us believe.

So is Britain really running out of money? Or is it running out of ideas?

On this episode of The Fourcast, Krishnan Guru-Murthy was joined by Richard Murphy, Professor Emeritus of Accounting Practice at University of Sheffield Management School, and economist Vicky Pryce, Chief Economic Adviser and a board member at the Centre for Economics and Business Research.

In this special audience Q&A episode of The Fourcast Indicators, Matt Frei and Mark Urban answer your questions on the big geopolitical issues shaping our world.

They ask why the West ignored Putin's aggression for so long, why Europe can't build its own rival to Starlink and whether Donald Trump's $1.5 trillion defence spending plan can rescue the US military.

Do you have any burning geopolitical questions you want Matt and Mark to answer? Send us your questions by leaving them in the comments and Matt and Mark will do their best to answer them in a future episode of the Fourcast Indicators.

Argentine President Javier Milei, has declared that the Falklands “illegal foreign occupation” and that his country needs to take them back from the UK.

But 44 years after Britain defeated Argentina in the Falklands War, could another invasion be on the cards?

And with Britain’s military much more depleted today than in the 80s, could they even retake the islands?

On this episode of the Fourcast Indicators, Matt Frei and Mark Urban speak to Chris Sabatini, the Director of the Latin America Programme at Chatham House.

He says that the presence of oil near the islands, as well as his tanking popularity at home, has pushed President Milei into putting the archipelago back into the spotlight.

Is the AI bubble about to burst? And could the trillion-dollar investment boom trigger the next global financial crisis?

Gary Gensler, the former head of America's financial regulator, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), warns that a major downturn in AI investment could be just 18 to 30 months away, potentially putting banks, pensions and the wider global economy at risk.

In this episode of The Fourcast, Krishnan Guru-Murthy speaks to Gensler about why he believes the AI boom is unsustainable, whether the world could face another financial crisis like 2008, and what happens when the enormous debts funding AI data centres come due.

They also discuss Donald Trump's approach to financial regulation, his family's involvement in cryptocurrency and prediction markets, and whether America's financial watchdogs are still capable of holding the powerful to account.

Gensler, now a professor at MIT and host of the podcast Power and Consequences, also explains why he believes the risks posed by increasingly powerful AI systems are real, despite Trump's dismissal of AI safety concerns.

What is it like for ordinary Russians living in Vladimir Putin’s Russia at war? What do they really think?

Award-winning war correspondent Åsne Seierstad has travelled deep inside Russia to find out.

Her new book, Never Say War, takes us behind the propaganda to reveal a society shaped by fear, repression and the human cost of war.

Ukraine relies on the good will of two volatile American billionaires to hit Russian targets and defend  their own skies - but this week that relationship with Elon Musk and Donald Trump has reached breaking point as Kyiv's access to Starlink was cut after Trump’s surprise diesel deal with Vladimir Putin.

Ukraine’s defence minister says operations have been partially restored, and Musk says it’s the US government that controls the military side of Starlink, called Starshield. 

So what happens now? Can Ukraine survive without Musk’s technology? And, as Zelenskyy says he feels betrayed by Trump, is this a final, fatal blow in their relationship? 

On this episode of The Fourcast Indicators, Matt Frei and Mark Urban are joined by Elisabeth Braw of the Atlantic Council to discuss.

A dramatic escalation in Yemen has plunged the Middle East into a fresh geopolitical crisis, after a series of deadly Houthi missile attacks on Saudi Arabia’s airports and oil and gas infrastructure. 

The long running civil war is one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises. But why are the Houthis at war with Saudi Arabia? And how does it fit into the wider Middle East conflicts?

In this episode of The Fourcast, Krishnan Guru-Murthy is joined by Middle East Eye Editor-in-Chief David Hearst and investigative journalist Iona Craig, who examine the catastrophic humanitarian emergency facing over 22 million Yemenis, the formation of rival regional alliances, and whether Saudi Arabia can ever achieve a decisive victory in Yemen.

What influence does the UK still have on the world stage? And can it use it to prevent some of the world’s worst atrocities?

On this episode of the Fourcast, we’re joined by the Nobel Peace Prize Laureate and member of the Standing Group on Atrocity Crimes, Oleksandra Matviichuk.

From Ukraine to Sudan and Myanmar to Xinjiang - this decade has seen some of the worst crimes against humanity amid an ever more uncertain world order.

Matviichuk however says that the UK can - and should - become a ‘world leader’ in the prevention of atrocities around the world - and that doing so is in our national interest.

Zack Polanski and the Green Party are facing pressing questions after Andy Burnham’s Labour held Keir Starmer’s former seat in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.

The result is a setback for Polanski’s hopes of challenging Labour on the left of British politics. With calls for his resignation after he declined to vote on the Green Party’s ‘Zionism is Racism’ motion, is this just a blip for the Green Party leader or is his leadership really under threat?

In this episode of The Fourcast, Jackie Long spoke to Green Party’s deputy leader Rachel Millward, as well as the political correspondent from the New Statesman Megan Kenyon and pollster from More In Common UK, Luke Tryl.

In the last few days a former German spy chief has been accused of selling state secrets, a British navy sailor has been charged with espionage and now two Latvians have been picked up near a British air base in Cambridgeshire - not to mention the mysterious goings on at RAF Fairford.

So are Western intelligence agencies facing a growing threat? Or was it ever thus? 

In this episode of the Fourcast Indicators, Krishnan Guru Murthy and Mark Urban are joined by former national security adviser Sir Mark Lyall Grant.