The Fourcast

Hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough have faded as retaliatory strikes flare up once again across the Middle East. And with Donald Trump warning of further military escalation, is the world at risk of yet another economic shock?

So what’s behind the new wave of strikes in the Middle East? And could Iran be at risk of losing control of its ultimate bargaining chip - the Strait of Hormuz.

In this episode of The Fourcast Indicators, Krishnan Guru-Murthy and Mark Urban break down the geopolitical signals shaping this war. Joined by the economist Neil Shearing from Capital Economics, they discuss global markets, inflation, and whether an exit strategy exists for either side.

Pakistan is the latest country to hit back after the White House threatened countries who trade with Iran. China has already said it won’t be taking orders from America. So is this another failed bid by Donald Trump to bend Iran and its backers to his will? 

Or could this actually work? Several senior Iranian leaders have recently acknowledged the economic pain that the country and its people are feeling. 

On this episode of The Fourcast, Krishnan Guru-Murthy speaks to Mohammed Marandi, a professor at Tehran University and a former adviser to Iran’s nuclear negotiating team to get a view from inside Iran.

Meta has agreed to a landmark settlement over allegations that its platforms harmed children and teenagers - raising a much bigger question about how social media is designed and regulated.

On this episode of The Fourcast, we look at what the settlement actually means for Instagram and Facebook users, whether other social media companies could be forced to follow suit, and whether this could fundamentally change the way we use social media.

Krishnan Guru-Murthy was joined by visiting professor at Stony Brook University School of Journalism and author of ‘Hot Type’ Jeff Jarvis and Associate Professor in Digital Humanities at University College London, Kaitlyn Regehr.

In a statement released after the settlement, Meta said the agreement is not an admission of wrongdoing, but a new framework designed to give parents more control and teenagers stronger protections. It says the measures will only work if TikTok and YouTube adopt the same rules, because teenagers move between multiple platforms.

Britain is doubling down on its support for Ukraine, backing a deal that could see Ukraine produce its own long-range missiles as Russia intensifies its attacks.

But as Moscow ramps up its missile production and warns of further mobilisation, Ukraine is facing growing pressure on its air defences and ammunition supplies. Meanwhile, questions remain over whether Europe can fill the gap if US support continues to weaken.

On this episode of The Fourcast, Krishnan Guru Murthy is joined by Channel 4 News International Editor Lindsey Hilsum and Guardian foreign correspondent Luke Harding to discuss Britain's growing role in the war, the state of the battlefield and whether Ukraine's allies are becoming weary of the conflict.

Could long-range Ukrainian missiles change the war? Is Russia winning the war of attrition? And how far is Britain prepared to go to support Ukraine?

Is Donald Trump driving the world economy off a cliff while you’re on your summer holiday? 

America has just passed $40 trillion of debt. Trump’s tariffs are pushing up prices, his tax cuts are adding to the deficit, and his war with Iran has sent oil prices soaring. 

Now bond markets are turning on him. The US treasury has tried to step in and calm the bond markets, but it doesn’t appear to have worked. 

So what exactly is going on? Is this just a wobble in the bond markets - or a sign of something much worse to come? 

On this episode of The Fourcast, Ciaran Jenkins is joined by Pippa Malmgren, who served as an economic adviser to President Bush, and The Economist’s Archie Hall.

Should Britain tax wealth more heavily? With the government under pressure to find billions for public services and defence, Andy Burnham has refused to rule out a wealth tax. 

But would taxing the richest households actually raise significant money, or drive wealth, investment and entrepreneurs out of the country?

On The Fourcast, Matt Frei is joined by Gabriel Zucman, economist and author of 'We Need to Tax Billionaires' and economist Arthur Laffer, creator of the Laffer Curve.

So how unequal is Britain? Has wealth become undertaxed compared with income? And if Britain doesn't tax the richest more, where else should the government find the money?

Nigel Farage has secured re-election in the Clacton by-election, but his political gamble to "stick two fingers up to the establishment" hasn’t gone according to plan. With novelty candidate Count Binface as Farage’s primary challenger, the self-described intergalactic space warrior secured nearly 10,000 votes.

With Farage's personal favorability ratings dropping and accusations that he skipped the declaration to avoid being "humiliated by nobodies," has the Reform leader’s publicity stunt severely backfired? 

In this episode of The Fourcast, Alex Thomson speaks to Popular Conservatism director Mark Littlewood, columnist Sonia Sodha, and polling expert Luke Tryl (Reform UK were unable to find anyone from the party to appear on the podcast).

They analyse whether Reform UK is losing its political momentum, how the ongoing standards investigation affects Farage's future, and whether Britain's political right is facing a deep crisis of credibility.

In the West Bank village of Qusra, Israeli settlers have spent days besieging Palestinian homes, cutting residents off from food and water - an attack even Donald Trump’s ambassador to Israel, Mike Huckabee, has condemned as a “horrific act of terror”. 

But this incident appears to be part of an escalation of settler violence in the West Bank this year. 

So can Benjamin Netanyahu and his government, who have at times condemned the violence but have also done so much to embolden settlers, reign it in? Or is the situation spiralling out of control? 

In a statement, the Israeli military said that soldiers had been deployed in Qusra since Thursday morning to protect residents and maintain security, and "were instructed that the Qusra residents will remain in their homes."

The military added that "soldiers will not operate inside the Palestinian family's home located near the site where the tent that was evacuated and dismantled had been erected".

On this episode of The Fourcast, Matt Frei is joined by former Israeli ambassador to Canada Alan Baker, who was part of a commission set up by Benjamin Netanyahu to investigate the legality of settlements in the West Bank. He was also joined by Palestinian ambassador to Unesco Adel Atieh and Haaretz senior analyst Esther Solomon.

In 2019, Theresa May positioned the UK as a global climate leader by enshrining a legally binding Net Zero target by 2050. Fast forward seven years, and the political landscape on the British Right has transformed dramatically. With Conservative Leader Kemi Badenoch proposing to repeal Net Zero targets and Reform UK labeling green policies "net-stupid-zero," the consensus around climate action is fracturing. 

All this comes as the UK endures repeated heatwaves, droughts, and severe economic impacts—with summer heatwaves costing an estimated £4.4bn in lost productivity alongside thousands of excess deaths. As extreme weather directly threatens agriculture and rural communities, is the Right out of step with voters, or are they tapping into growing cost-of-living concerns?

In this episode of The Fourcast, Matt Frei explores whether Net Zero scepticism is pragmatic economics or climate denial in disguise. Matt is joined by former Energy Minister Graham Stuart MP, Net Zero Scrutiny Group member Lord Peter Lilley, and former NFU President Baroness Minette Batters to debate conservative ideology, economic reality, and the electoral risks facing the Right.

AI is increasingly being used to find vulnerabilities, exploit networks and carry out cyberattacks - but how autonomous are these systems really?

On this episode of The Fourcast, Matt Frei asks whether we are approaching a world where AI agents can conduct cyberattacks with little or no human intervention. Could an AI maintain access to a network, evade attempts to shut it down or even copy itself?

Matt is joined by AI safety expert and author of Considerations on the AI Endgame, Dr Roman V. Yampolskiy, and Katie Moussouris, founder and CEO of Luta Security and a former contributor to the US government's ‘Hack the Pentagon’ programme.

They discuss the latest AI hacking incidents, whether governments need tougher regulation, who should be responsible when AI causes harm, and whether AI could ultimately become both the biggest cyber threat - and the best defence against it.