For months after Vladimir Putin’s fullscale invasion of Ukraine, Western leaders predicted Russia’s economy was on the brink of collapse under sanctions - and yet it didn’t.

It transformed into a wartime economy, fuelled by military production, redirected trade routes, and deeper ties with China and India.

But now there are signs this may be changing - with industrial output slowing, inflation rising, and severe labour shortages as hundreds of thousands of working-age men have either died, emigrated or been mobilised.

And Western leaders are once again questioning how long Putin can bankroll his war machine.

So is Russia’s economy finally starting to buckle - or is this still wishful thinking from Ukraine’s allies?

On this episode of The Fourcast, Krishnan Guru-Murthy is joined by Arkady Ostrovsky, Russia editor at The Economist, and Elina Ribakova, one of the world’s leading experts on sanctions and Russian macro-economics.