Eric and Eliot discuss serious threats that Trump continues to make against Denmark and the possibility that the administration might use military force to seize Greenland. They also examine the seizure of the ghost fleet tanker Bella, the risks of inadvertent conflict with Russia, and ongoing negotiations in Paris over the future of the war in Ukraine. The conversation explores the odds that Russia can continue fighting in 2026 given immense battlefield losses, the country’s cratering economy, and shifts in Ukrainian domestic politics. Finally, they turn to the intensifying protests in Iran, contrasting them with earlier waves of public revulsion against the regime in the late 1990s, 2009, 2017–18, and 2022–23, and discuss what indicators might suggest the regime is truly coming apart at the seams.

Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.