He talks about the Village, and the River, but what we really need is a Redoubt.

On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything 

By: Nate Silver

Published: 2024

576 Pages

Briefly, what is this book about?

There are two different ways of approaching the world: the River, which thinks in terms of numbers, expected values, and quantification and the Village, which is the paternalistic expert class which manifests as the vast bureaucracy. 

What's the author's angle?

I got the impression that Silver just wanted to write about things that interested him. Because of this, his thesis was kind of tacked on. That said, he is a fairly passionate advocate for things that interest him. 

Who should read this book?

Silver is worried that people will skip the first half of the book which is about gambling, but in reality that was the best part, or at least the part I found to be novel. The second part is about Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF), AI, and all the stuff you’ve already heard too much about if you spend much time online. With this in mind, I think there are three reasons to read this book:

1. If you want a deep exploration of high-level poker playing. 

2. You have never heard of AI Risk or SBF.

3. If you think my discussion of Silver’s model of the Village vs. the River is incomplete.

Specific thoughts: An mashup of the election and this book

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