Actionable Intelligence Alert

As reported China is not wasting time and is re-opening its economy by ripping the band-aid off. There should be a lull as the virus sweeps through the population.   

However, experience in other countries tells us that when herd immunity is achieved we should see a rush of consumer spending as the population emerges from three years of lockdowns.   

This coincides with the PBOC now engaging in a new liquidity cycle which in the past has led to a rise in commodity prices.

This may or not be the last video for 2022.   

Merry Christmas!   

In this video, I talk about the stock of the year pick for 2023. The point of the SOY is blatant and unashamed clickbait for the channel and newsletter.   The premise is to select a highly speculative stock that has catalysts that could lead to a doubling in the stock price over the next year.   In the past, I did this and was successful for three or four years in a row.

The fundamentals in the oil market that were causing weakness in the oil market over the last six months now appear to be reversing and becoming tailwinds. 

 -Chinese economy opening up from three years of zero Covid policy. This could result in 2-3 million barrels of demand. 

-SPR releases ending. Biden administration now announcing refills of SPR. 1 million barrels per day of supply off the market. 

-Russian supply was juiced due to get ahead of sanctions earlier this month. 500-800k of supply off the market. 

-The continued reluctance of producers to spend money on new production and development due to negative policies including windfall profit taxes being imposed by governments. 

-Strong demand from emerging markets like India.  

The economy in the US and EU are now entering recessions. How much will this contribute to demand destruction?   If the world does not experience a GFC or Covid lockdown economic scenario, there is a good chance oil prices continue moving higher next year.

People want answers and in this video, I give an update about how I see things in the short, medium, and long term.

The US just hit a record for overall petroleum exports (both crude oil and refined products). Much of this has come from the SPR releases and exports to the EU due to sanctions on Europe's main energy supplier Russia.

Oil prices got clobbered over the last couple of weeks.   

However, long-term fundamentals have not changed in my view.   

In this week's video, I try and explain what is happening in the oil markets. China re-opening, recession in the US and EU, Emerging market demand growth, etc...

I am no expert on crypto and have dabbled in it in the past. However, I was always aware of the bubblicous conditions surrounding it facilitated mainly by years of low-interest rates along with investor's insatiable desire to get rich quick.  

Oil got nuked this week. Is this the beginning of deflation?

With tier-one assets developed along with constraints on the industry with respect to supplies and manpower are we at the end of continuous growth of shale oil and gas?  Follow me on Twitter: @JohnPolomny  

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When Joe Biden was running for President he told us he was going to "end fossil fuels". Now that high oil prices and in particular gasoline and diesel prices are contributing to record inflation he is mad at them for doing what he told them to do.   

The lack of a coherent energy policy across not only the US but the entire west is opening up a host of opportunities for investors and speculators like us.

The world's largest chemical company, Germany-based BASF, is announcing permanent plant closures and restructuring of its facilities in Germany.  

I forecasted this would happen and it will continue all over the EU until the Europeans figure out how to replace cheap and plentiful Russian gas.