For 22 straight days, the market has been realizing net losses. But MVRV Z has already cooled to 0.32, versus a historical average of 1.71.

Stress is there. Overheating is gone. What this means for Bitcoin right now, I break down in Morning Brief #187.

Bitcoin bounced 3.7% off $60K, but Open Interest fell 6% with positive funding - a short-covering rebound, not new leverage. Watch OI for confirmation.

Bitcoin is testing the February low, while the current net realized loss of -$7B is already heavier than it was directly at the February price low. At the same time, it is still below the peak of winter capitulation at -$14B. The key observation - this time, seller pressure is building as price approaches the bottom, rather than fading before it.

Over the past month, Bitcoin has pulled back after the May recovery and returned to a test of the February low at 60K - the level that became the local bottom after the decline from the cycle peak of 125K. Against this backdrop, the market structure index shows weakening without capitulation, while the crowd sentiment index has fallen into extreme fear.

Over the past month, the market has pulled back from the May highs to February levels. Both charts capture the same reversal, but at different speeds: the slow Bitcoin Impulse has already dropped to -59, while average monthly demand from takers has only now broken below the zero line.

Since the start of May, the market regime has completely reversed. What previously pushed price higher is now working against it. Two charts show how exchange outflows and short squeezes have been replaced by BTC inflows to exchanges and cascading long liquidations. Against this backdrop, price has pulled back from the May high toward the $70K zone.

Bitcoin realized volatility fell 56% to multi-year lows as market cap grows slower than realized cap. A coiled, de-risked setup. Watch the 200-day average.

BlackRock and Strategy-affiliated wallets moved BTC into Coinbase Prime infrastructure. A sale is not yet confirmed, but the market has received a new supply overhang and now has to show whether it can absorb that volume.

BTC is returning to exchanges after months of outflows, while stablecoins are simultaneously leaving exchanges - this is a double risk-off signal.

Bitcoin bounced +2.7% from the May 23 low, but the underlying futures microstructure deteriorated much faster than price. In this episode, we break down why the rebound initially looked constructive, what failed beneath the surface, and why the collapse in Taker Score from 84 to 31 matters more than the shallow price pullback suggests. We also compare the taker-driven reversal to the smaller move in the composite microstructure index, explain how price can stay elevated briefly on inertia even after aggressive buyer flow has faded, and outline the warning signs that would confirm a broader shift toward risk-off.