Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief

BTC reclaimed the STH cost basis at $68K and broke above SMA200/SMA111, putting short-term holders back in profit. SMA365 at $83K is resistance.

STH supply in profit jumped to 74.9% as BTC rebounded 22% to $77K, but net flow to exchanges crossed +25K BTC. Watch for distribution pressure.

Bitcoin rose 20%, yet US spot premium is negative and open interest in BTC dropped 8.7%. 

Bitcoin Regime Score hit Strong Bull (60) at $69.5K. The turn started Aug 17, before a $1.42B short squeeze amplified the breakout.

Net Taker Volume stays positive while Bitcoin open interest declines - buy-side demand without leverage. Watch for a break above $66.8K.

Bitcoin holds 1.30x the LTH cost basis in the Low Risk zone. Supply near ATH with minimal spending shows no distribution. Watch a $74K reclaim.

STH MVRV at 0.94 and SOPR near 0.996 show Bitcoin short-term holders underwater, not capitulating. Watch $59.3K support, a SOPR reclaim of 1.0.

Bitcoin UTXOs in Profit sit near local lows at 53%, while 30-day transfer volume has jumped 23% from its April low, above its yearly average.

Bitcoin miner fees sit near 2015 lows at 0.71% of revenue; hashrate is down 23% but holding. Watch a return above 1% for a regime shift.

Bitcoin volatility compressed to 3.8% and ADX fell to 11 - an extreme Bollinger Bands squeeze, no trend. Watch for band expansion, ADX above 20.