This brief covers the first BUY signal in a long time from Net UTXO Supply Ratio and whether the Supply in Loss metric confirms the start of the final phase of capitulation. The logic is simple: the fast indicator has already moved into the reversal zone, while the slower one still needs more time to reach the threshold.

A brief on why the current bounce looks fragile. The logic is simple: buyers are pressing the market aggressively, but without growth in open interest the move has no fuel for a sustainable breakout.

The current drawdown looks heavier than February's: exchange inflows have increased, while SOPR below 1.0 shows that the market is realizing losses on average. Until both metrics turn, any recovery remains unconfirmed.

A brief on BTC approaching the LTH cost basis and why long-term holder behavior points to the market nearing the final phase of the bear cycle.

A brief on how demand from spot Bitcoin ETFs has completely dried up and turned into a sustained outflow. As long as momentum stays near historical lows, the market has no institutional fuel for an upside reversal.

Net realized P/L is persistently negative, which means the market is systematically locking in losses. But the cost basis of most holder cohorts is still below the current price, so for now this looks like a controlled decline rather than a full capitulation.

This brief is about how MSTR's deep drawdown and Strategy's shift from aggressive buying to defense are changing the role of the largest corporate BTC buyer. The logic is simple: the longer this proxy stock trades deeply underwater, the higher the risk that the burden of dividends and debt will eventually reach Bitcoin itself.

A brief on how bullish demand has run out and momentum is shifting to sellers: Net Taker has pulled back to zero, while long positions dominate liquidations.

This brief is about short-term holders moving into loss while capital inside the STH group is shrinking sharply. At the same time, the LTH group shows almost no drawdown. The logic is simple: the pain is real, but it is concentrated in weak hands. The market structure does not yet look like a full cycle-wide capitulation.

Price is compressing toward Adjusted Realized Price as the main support zone, while the change in new capital inflow has turned negative. For now, the market is being held by old hands, not fresh demand.