Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief

Bitcoin 0-3M holder NUPL is near breakeven while the 3-6M cohort sits at -0.14, its Realized Cap 69.6% below peak. Watch 3-6M to reclaim zero.

MVRV Z-Score at 0.41, below its 1.69 mean but above zero. BTC holds ~13% over the $57.6K cost basis. Lose it and $46.1K stress opens up.

LTH SOPR below 1.0 does not mean the entire long-term holder cohort is under pressure. The average LTH cost basis is $49.3K, while Bitcoin trades at $64.3K, so most of the cohort remains in profit. The main stress is now concentrated among STHs, whose cost basis is above the market price.

The current price rebound is not confirmed by flows. The apparent demand-to-issuance ratio and net age flow are recovering from their July lows but remain negative. Supply is aging and leaving circulation, supporting the price, but fresh demand has yet to return.

Bitcoin price prediction for August 2026 with historical performance, support and resistance, macro outlook, ETF flows, and on-chain data.

This brief shows how the balance of supply in profit and loss has changed over the past year and how stress has evolved during the past month. The picture remains strained, but the indicator is still far from previous extremes, while weekly momentum has only started to turn higher.

The market is still in the Neutral zone, but sentiment continues to deteriorate and is approaching the Fear threshold.

The short-term holder share is near multi-year lows, while the long-term holder share has approached historical highs. This points to lower coin turnover and resilience among long-term holders, but it does not yet confirm a return of demand.

Local stress rose to 16 points. The impulse was driven almost entirely by price movement, while exchange flows and derivatives do not confirm it.

Price weakness has not been accompanied by an increase in supply on exchanges. BTC inflows continue to decline, while Netflow remains neutral. Coins are not accumulating on exchanges in volumes that would point to rising sell-side pressure, but there is also no meaningful reduction in liquid supply that could support the price.