Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief

The market has remained in unrealized loss territory for six weeks. STH moved underwater first and were also the first to begin recovering, while the aggregate Adjusted NUPL and LTH readings reached their lows later. All three metrics have now converged near -0.13 and are recovering in sync.

The price decline is accompanied by a sustained reduction in open interest and a weakening pressure index. At this point, it looks more like positions are being closed and excess leverage is being flushed out than a structural move lower. But buying momentum has weakened noticeably.

Buying pressure is once again outweighing selling pressure at the lows, repeating the February pattern, while price is holding near the Cost Basis of the freshest holders. The logic of this brief is simple: compressed selling pressure and price positioning in the lower part of the cohort range point to an accumulation zone.

This brief explains why initiative in futures still remains with sellers despite a local rebound attempt. Cumulative buy delta is shrinking quickly, and any spike in demand is immediately absorbed. That confirms local weakness in buyer flow.

A brief on how stablecoin inflows - the main fuel of the crypto market - have dried up over the past two months. The logic is simple: without fresh dollar liquidity, BTC rebounds stay short-lived and downside pressure remains in place.

The first major net BTC sale by Strategy in several years and the futures market's reaction to the announcement. The sale was driven by obligations, not by a change in strategy. Price held up, but derivatives positioning cooled noticeably.

The futures market has turned toward greater willingness to take risk: the gap between futures and spot has moved back into positive territory, and the positioning index has shifted back above zero.

This brief covers the first BUY signal in a long time from Net UTXO Supply Ratio and whether the Supply in Loss metric confirms the start of the final phase of capitulation. The logic is simple: the fast indicator has already moved into the reversal zone, while the slower one still needs more time to reach the threshold.

A brief on why the current bounce looks fragile. The logic is simple: buyers are pressing the market aggressively, but without growth in open interest the move has no fuel for a sustainable breakout.

The current drawdown looks heavier than February's: exchange inflows have increased, while SOPR below 1.0 shows that the market is realizing losses on average. Until both metrics turn, any recovery remains unconfirmed.