Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief

The bounce off $60K is being driven by returning buyers, not a short squeeze. Taker Buy Sell Ratio closed above 1.0 in 8 of the last 10 days, while Funding Rate stayed positive for 10 straight days from June 6 to June 15. That means the rally is being supported by aggressive demand, but at the same time it shows that long leverage is starting to build up again.

This brief is about the reversal in flows from May to the present. The logic is simple: BTC inflows to exchanges increase supply pressure, while stablecoin outflows deprive the market of fuel for a rebound.

Miner metrics have entered a stress zone comparable to post-halving drawdowns, but the market has not yet reached a full-scale capitulation on the scale of 2018 and 2022. The key question is whether the Puell 30DMA will hold above 0.50, or whether the market will shift into survival mode.

Capital is leaving the Bitcoin network, and participant behavior confirms a capitulation regime - sales are being made at a loss. This brief examines how close the current stress is to the March extremes and what needs to happen for the regime to change.

For 22 straight days, the market has been realizing net losses. But MVRV Z has already cooled to 0.32, versus a historical average of 1.71.

Stress is there. Overheating is gone. What this means for Bitcoin right now, I break down in Morning Brief #187.

Bitcoin bounced 3.7% off $60K, but Open Interest fell 6% with positive funding - a short-covering rebound, not new leverage. Watch OI for confirmation.

Bitcoin is testing the February low, while the current net realized loss of -$7B is already heavier than it was directly at the February price low. At the same time, it is still below the peak of winter capitulation at -$14B. The key observation - this time, seller pressure is building as price approaches the bottom, rather than fading before it.

Over the past month, Bitcoin has pulled back after the May recovery and returned to a test of the February low at 60K - the level that became the local bottom after the decline from the cycle peak of 125K. Against this backdrop, the market structure index shows weakening without capitulation, while the crowd sentiment index has fallen into extreme fear.

Over the past month, the market has pulled back from the May highs to February levels. Both charts capture the same reversal, but at different speeds: the slow Bitcoin Impulse has already dropped to -59, while average monthly demand from takers has only now broken below the zero line.

Since the start of May, the market regime has completely reversed. What previously pushed price higher is now working against it. Two charts show how exchange outflows and short squeezes have been replaced by BTC inflows to exchanges and cascading long liquidations. Against this backdrop, price has pulled back from the May high toward the $70K zone.