Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief

Two structural signals confirm one conclusion: bulls have lost control. The market failed to hold above the zero zone, sellers absorbed the bullish impulse, and price is once again pinned to the lower part of the structure.

Bitcoin approached the $82K zone three times and pulled back three times: STH-SOPR shows that short-term holders are using every rally to exit, confirming structural overhead pressure. Until price secures a move above the 200D SMA and STH SOPR holds above 1.0, the rally remains without fuel.

A brief on two signals working together: taker volumes point to a weakening bullish impulse, while funding confirms that traders are not rushing to open longs. The market is losing bullish inertia while bearish positioning in derivatives remains in place.

Bitcoin is trading above $80,000, and STH Loss Pressure has dropped to zero for the first time in several months. At the same time, the STH share of total BTC supply continues to decline, pointing to a weakening short-term speculative overhang.

Bitcoin retail demand momentum has turned sharply higher, but the recovery is still not fully confirmed by absolute transfer volume.

In Morning Brief #167, we break down the divergence between Retail Demand 30D Change and $0-$10K transfer volume. Retail Demand 30D Change rose from -8.2% on April 5 to +4.38% by May 12, after crossing the zero line on April 27 and peaking at +6.31% on May 6.

The problem: absolute retail transfer volume recovered only from $336M to $351M on a 30-day moving average basis, still below the earlier Q1 range of roughly $365M-$375M.

Bottom line: retail contraction has stopped, momentum has recovered, but the full return of retail capital is not yet confirmed.