Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief

A brief on BTC approaching the LTH cost basis and why long-term holder behavior points to the market nearing the final phase of the bear cycle.

A brief on how demand from spot Bitcoin ETFs has completely dried up and turned into a sustained outflow. As long as momentum stays near historical lows, the market has no institutional fuel for an upside reversal.

Net realized P/L is persistently negative, which means the market is systematically locking in losses. But the cost basis of most holder cohorts is still below the current price, so for now this looks like a controlled decline rather than a full capitulation.

This brief is about how MSTR's deep drawdown and Strategy's shift from aggressive buying to defense are changing the role of the largest corporate BTC buyer. The logic is simple: the longer this proxy stock trades deeply underwater, the higher the risk that the burden of dividends and debt will eventually reach Bitcoin itself.

A brief on how bullish demand has run out and momentum is shifting to sellers: Net Taker has pulled back to zero, while long positions dominate liquidations.

This brief is about short-term holders moving into loss while capital inside the STH group is shrinking sharply. At the same time, the LTH group shows almost no drawdown. The logic is simple: the pain is real, but it is concentrated in weak hands. The market structure does not yet look like a full cycle-wide capitulation.

Price is compressing toward Adjusted Realized Price as the main support zone, while the change in new capital inflow has turned negative. For now, the market is being held by old hands, not fresh demand.

This brief is about the Fed's hawkish pause and how differently assets reacted: gold was bought after the drop, while Bitcoin remained under pressure. The logic of the issue is BTC's relative weakness as a signal of a shift toward risk-off.

This brief is about the second wave of capitulation and why the fading strength of the selloff matters more than the panic itself. The logic is simple: if the second wave of losses is weaker than the first, it more often points to seller exhaustion.

This brief is about how holder conditions and fundamental valuation have converged in the same zone. Supply moved deeply underwater around $60K, while CVDD shows where the market's structural bottom level sits.