Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief

Around 56% of BTC supply is now in profit, compared with 47% at the June low. Market structure has improved, but the 90-day change remains negative: the profitable supply base is recovering, yet it is still well below where it stood three months ago.

Bitcoin is in an undervaluation zone based on the MVRV Z-Score, but full capitulation, marked by the metric falling below zero, has not occurred. Realized P/L points to easing selling pressure, but there is still no confirmation of a cycle bottom through capitulation.

We compare the current bear market phase with the 2022 cycle through realized profit and loss.

The US spot market is emerging from a period of maximum pressure. The Coinbase discount has not disappeared, but it has narrowed significantly, while the return of positive ETF flows confirms that the market structure is improving.

This brief examines what is happening inside the volatility compression. Low volatility is neutral on its own - its meaning depends on the direction of positioning. Leverage is currently declining, so the risk of a sharp move amplified by a liquidation cascade is lower than it was a month ago.

This brief examines the balance between supply and demand through exchange flows. As long as stablecoins continue to leave exchanges and Bitcoin does not enter an accumulation phase, the price lacks the fuel needed for a sustained move higher.

This brief examines how weak inflows of new capital coincide with short-term holders realizing losses. Young coins account for a minimal share of realized capitalization, STH SOPR remains below 1.0, and both indicators have only just started recovering from their local lows.

Bitcoin LTH supply hit a record 16.34M BTC, with 371K absorbed in 30 days, while CDD 30D stays low at 313M. Scarcity is building, demand is not.

This brief explains how the local bearish regime shifted to a bullish one and why the current move appears confirmed. 

We examine what powered the daily move: aggressive market buying or the forced closing of short positions.