Episode 13 

TJ digs into historical returns for equities, bonds and cash.

Charles breaks down some demographic and other trends that are shaping how he thinks about interest rates.

Interesting topic is how much people think they need for retirement.

Links

Timing interest rates: https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2023/03/market-  timing-interest-rates/

Survey - https://www.im.natixis.com/us/resources/2023-individual-investor-survey-full-report

Yougov survey - Rumble in the jungle: what animals would win in a fight? | YouGov

Episode 12: Charles digs into Life Insurance. TJ and Charles talk about the different mindsets of coastal investors vs those in the middle of the country and how those affect investing ideas. The team ends with a discussion on the difference between being wealth and being rich.

Personal Finance  - TJ digs into how to think about social security as more than just an income stream. 

Markets: Charles looks at the markets post debt ceiling and how they tend to work after the first 100 trading days.

Interesting: The story of when Bryan Lawrence asked Warren Buffet " “How do we get to be like you but faster....the average stock goes up and down by 80% in a year. And that’s an enormous advantage if you actually take the time to understand the underlying business because the stock price is not reflecting underlying value if it’s going up and down by 80%.”"

Links:

Social Security: https://www.kitces.com/blog/valuing-social-security-benefits-as-an-asset-on-the-household-balance-sheet/

100 Trading Days: In the Markets Now: First 100 Days (5/2023, Client Approved)

Bryan Lawrence Interview: https://www.theinvestorspodcast.com/episodes/beating-the-sp500-since-2004-w-bryan-lawrence/

Personal Finance: Charles digs into what he is thinking about cash here.

Markets: Tj digs into top 10 stocks in the S&P.

Interesting: The story from Nick Sleep on understanding value and buying a Ferrari GTO in 1960s for 750…worth ~$52mn today.

Links:

In the Markets Now: Stock Market Concentration (5/2023)

This week Charles Fry and TJ Kavanagh dig into 3 topics.

Bill Ackman was recently on 20 minute VC and discussed an idea about how to help fix inequality in the US. Bill’s plan included giving every baby born in the US a certain amount of money that they couldn’t touch for 65 years but would be invested. Charles spends some time digging into home bias and why he what is standing out to him in the international space. TJ digs into the increasing draw downs in the stock market over the last few years.

Links:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/shaharziv/2020/12/07/bill-ackman-give-every-child-6750-so-they-retire-millionaires/?sh=39b29d047534

Episode 8 - TJ and Charles talk about an idea to fund a roth with proceeds from a 529 account, look at all the bearish indicators in the market (e-mini short, stocks vs bonds and ideas of SPX predications for year end) and end with some thoughts on the "having a health relationship with money" article. 

Links:

https://wggtb.substack.com/p/having-a-healthy-relationship-with 

Epi 7 - Tj and Charles discuss VATs, the silent crisis that is Retirment in the US and pros and cons of a financial shock. 

Show Notes

0:01:06: VAT

0:06:44: “silent crisis” when it comes to retirement 

0:09:00: pros and cons of financial shock

Link 

Ross' note - In the Markets Now: Pros and Cons of a Bank Crisis (3/2023, Client-Approved)

Episode 6: TJ and Charles talk about Warren Buffet’s latest annual report, the changing leadership that happens throughout the decade in the stock market and how Josh Waitzkin trained his son to not let external forces like rain effect his mood which seems like a good analogy for stock market and what happens when you try to time the market.

Show Notes

00:00:15: Warren Buffet digs into stock vs bond holdings over a 30 year period in his 2022 annual report. Section titled “Secret Sauce”

00:02:58: Leadership changes in the market over cycles

00:06:12: Taking a look at trying to time the market by examining the returns a portfolios that are fully invested.

Links:

https://www.joshwaitzkin.com/recommended-reading-learning-creativity

https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2022ltr.pdf

My guest today on the 123 Series is Ross Mayfield, Investment Strategy Analyst at Baird.

Ross and I dig into

1.        Gifting

2.        Earnings Season and stocks bottoming

3.        GDP negative years and returns on stock market

This week Charles and TJ discuss

1. the new secure act and an idea for 529s.

2. Dig into the classic youtube clip "Bert the Broker" and takes on recessions vs bear markets.

3. The end of negative yielding debt... for now