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Here is what I am tracking on the radar today:
The Shattered 'Trump Trade' & Canada Tariffs: I break down why the highly publicized "Trump Trade" is officially in tatters. While the S&P 500 has climbed 8% this year, the Ned Davis Research Trump Trade Index has plunged 16% since its May peak due to the US-Iran war and soaring inflation expectations.
I'll show you why the Truth Social-branded YALL ETF has dropped 4%—and reveal why it doesn't actually own a single share of Trump Media stock, which itself is down 35% year-to-date. Plus, I deconstruct the White House's sudden move to slap Canada with 50% targeted Section 338 tariffs on everything from beer to hockey sticks, and explain why market strategists warn we have already used up our only economic "get-out-of-jail card".
The $27 Billion Prediction Arms Race: I map out the massive corporate clash heating up as retail giant Robinhood holds talks with Crypto.com to directly integrate its event-based contracts.
I look at the staggering scale of this market, including Kalshi's mind-blowing $27 billion in trading volume for the World Cup, and explain why Crypto.com is aggressively hunting for retail distribution even though its highly publicized prediction-market integration with Truth Social has still not launched.
The Demise of BitMEX: I take you through the final hours of the crypto pioneer that revolutionized global trading by introducing 100x leverage and perpetual swaps. I look back at how they peaked at $1 trillion in annual trading volume, their painful regulatory battles, and explain why even an unusual presidential pardon from Donald Trump last year couldn't save the platform from a brutal crypto winter and a sudden mass exodus of its executive leadership.
The Golden Paradox: Since the outbreak of the Iran war on February 28, gold has unexpectedly plummeted 22%. I explain the macroeconomic forces behind this decline—including Turkey's massive $10.6 billion gold liquidation—and present my contrarian case for why buying the gold dip remains highly rational while stock investors remain remarkably complacent about growing macro risks
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