Al Ahly Pharos

Market Overview 



Prepared by: Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe

The CBE's MPC is scheduled to meet on Thursday, 26 December. We expect the CBE to prefer to hold rates unchanged in its upcoming meeting.  Even though the annual inflation reading dipped below 26% in November, some price hikes such as the recent telecom hikes are still passing through inflation readings. Besides, the recent gradual increase in USD rate – breaching the EGP50 border – accompanied by unfavorable geopolitics add another reason for the CBE to show some patience before easing, which looks more probable in 1Q2025.

Foreign and Arab investors are looking to shift EGP bns from short-term t-bills into Egypt’s three-year t-bonds, capitalizing on a sharp rise in yields.

The Mostakbal Misr Agency for Sustainable Development, the new agency in charge of importing commodities, is currently holding talks with major Russian wheat exporters. A move that could help reduce the transaction costs of paying for grains.

The European Investment Bank issued EGP1 billion bonds in 3 tranches. 

The National Printing Company (NAPR) will make its EGX debut in 2H 2025.

Egyptians living abroad can now purchase up to two premium housing units using FX through a new government initiative.

The Industry Ministry is currently studying plans to establish a ready-built industrial complex of 450 factories in South Port Said Industrial Zone’s extension.

Egypt plans to sign separate agreements with Bahrain and the UAE in 1Q 2025 to reduce customs clearance times to a few hours.

We upgraded our FV for ALCN to EGP32.50/share, with an Overweight recommendation to factor in the latest market developments. The updated FV reflects:

• Weak local currency which positively impacts the company’s USD-denominated revenues.
• New contracts signed by the company that will enable ALCN will be able to increase the volumes of containers handled from 800 to 1,000 TEUs per month.
• Stable gross profitability on the back of USD-denominated revenues and EGP-denominated COGS. 
• We expect ALCN’s revenue to grow by a 5yr CAGR of 21% throughout our forecast period to reach EGP19.5 billion in FY28/29.
• We expect net profit to grow by a 5yr CAGR of 20% throughout our forecast period to reach EGP14.6 billion in FY28/29.
• We expect ALCN to continue being a dividend play with a payout ratio maintained at 85% throughout our forecast horizon.

ALCN is currently trading at FY24/25f P/E of 9.3x and EV/EBITDA of 8.3x.

CCAP announced that, as of December 20, 2024, its subsidiary, ERC has successfully finalized its Senior and Subordinated debt Restructuring. Following the completion of this restructuring the net senior debt now stands at USD363 million, down from an initial amount of USD2.35 billion, which is expected to be fully repaid by December 2025. The subordinated debt currently stands at USD751 million, with an expected repayment completion by 2030. This progress in debt reduction positions ERC to begin distributing dividends to shareholders, with the first anticipated dividend payout expected in 2026.

COMI has announced that there would be a 2% fee when topping up the e-wallet with money from CIB cards.  

The Health Ministry launched the National One Health Plan (2024-27) and a health climate adaptation framework (2024-30), targeting shared health risks from zoonotic diseases, food and water safety, and climate-related challenges.

Weekly Commodities Update

- Market Overview 
- ESRS
- ARAB
- CSAG
- EGAL



- prepared by: Mayada Amin - CETA, CFTe

The EU approved the disbursement of an EUR 1 bn macro-financial assistance package. The package marks the first phase of a EUR 5 bn set of concessional loans running through 2027, which comes as part of a wider EUR 7.4 bn package from the EU announced in March.

The China Communications Construction Company (CCCC) is interested in working with the Madbouly government on its airport development plans, namely the development of Cairo International Airport.

The average yield on six-month t-bills jumped to a fresh high of 31.21% during the central bank’s latest EGP t-bills auction on Thursday.

Transactions of foreigner investors in the local debt market turned into net purchases amounting to about EGP21.3 billion, equivalent to USD418.3 million, during the past week.

IMF spokeswoman Julie Kozak stated that discussions of the fourth review of Egypt's economic reform program are still going on virtually, with the aim of reaching an agreement on policies and reforms that can support the completion of the review.

State-owned pharma manufacturer HoldiPharma is gearing up to list stakes ranging between 25-30% in subsidiaries Chemical Industries Development (CID) and Misr Pharma on the EGX. 

Government sources estimated that raising mobile bill prices would achieve an increase in tax revenues ranging between EGP5-6 billion.

A delegation of Bavarian business leaders will visit Egypt in January to explore green hydrogen investments, German ambassador to Egypt Jürgen Schulz told Al Arabiya. Another delegation of investors from Saxony is scheduled to visit in April with an eye on the energy and infrastructure sectors.

The Bank of England and the Bank of Japan kept their interest rates unchanged on Thursday, with a cautious stance for 2025. 

GBCO's new manufacturing plant in Sadat city is expected to begin operations in 1H25.

Cheiron Energy is looking to expand its energy portfolio in Egypt, targeting new concessions and ramping up exploration to boost production, CEO Alan Linn said.

Saudi Arabia's Alqahtani Holding is in talks with the Oil Ministry to explore joint investments in petroleum, gas, and petrochemical projects. 

The General Petroleum Company (GPC) has resumed production of its GPY field, following years of inactivity. The field is expected to produce some 1.5 million barrels of oil in the coming three years.

- Market Overview 
- AMOC
- ADIB
- CIEB
- BTFH
- PHDC


- prepared by: Mayada Amin- CFTE, CETA

The Egyptian Mineral Resources Authority launched a global tender for the exploration of kaolin sand, glass sand, and other minerals yesterday, according to a statement from the Oil Ministry. Investors have until 13 February to submit their offers.

Finance Minister Ahmed Kouchouk has extended the window for settling tax disputes until 30 June 2025 and will offer taxpayers a quick and effective method to settle their custom and tax disputes. 

The US Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the third time in 2024 by 25 bps, bringing its overnight borrowing rate to 4.25%-4.5%.

UAE’s AMEA Power will receive a golden license for its 1 GW solar power plant with 600 MWh battery storage system in Benban after the cabinet approved the move. 

The cabinet has approved a draft presidential decision to form the Egyptian-Saudi Supreme Coordination Council.

The cabinet approved a draft law amending the Traffic Law expanding the list of those eligible for financing under the fund granting support to those who purchase green vehicles to include those retrofitting vehicles, only those manufactured in the past 20 years, to run on clean energy as well as for purchasing eco-friendly vehicles.

Egypt secured a USD230 million concessional loan from Japan to support the state budget, promote private sector development, and diversify the economy.

Egypt seeks to import between 155 and 160 liquefied gas shipments during the next year, to bridge the gap between the actual need of the local market of natural gas and local production. A government official said that the cost of importing liquefied gas shipments during 2025 is estimated at USD 8 billion.

Kuwait's Caesarspac Company, which specializes in paper industries, announced the establishment of the largest paper recycling plant in the Middle East in the 10th of Ramadan city, Egypt.

ESRS will hold an extraordinary general assembly on 28 January 2025 to approve voluntary delisting from EGX. 

ECAP updates it's business activities to include production for others. 

SKPC's BoD approved the investment budget for 2025 with a total value of EGP1.9 billion.

- Market Overview 


- Prepared by : Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe

Net foreign assets of the CBE increased by USD1.17 billion in November to record USD11.8 billion, compared to USD10.64 billion in October.

Egypt has trimmed its fuel consumption 6% to 171 grams per kWh over the past few months. The reduction in demand is saving the country some EGP1.2 bn monthly.

The Ministry of Finance aims to reduce the external debt of the budget agencies by about USD1 billion during the remainder of the current fiscal year, to record USD77 billion dollars by the end of the current fiscal year, compared to USD79 billion at the end of June 2024.

Egypt will host the Egyptian-US Investment Forum in 1H2025 to promote American investment in Egypt, according to a cabinet statement. 

“We aim to have Egypt rank among the top 20 countries in terms of foreign trade by 2030 through introducing clearcut measures that will help boost exports to above USD145 bn,” Investment Minister said while outlining his ministry’s vision to MPs. 

The government is set to launch a EUR271 mn green industry program in 1Q2025 to support the industrial sector and help it cut back on carbon emissions with low-interest financing.

Egypt and Sudan inked an agreement to study setting up a rail link between them with KWD750k (c. USD2.4 mn) in funding from the Kuwait Fund for Arab Economic Development.

The Madbouly government is looking into launching a new initiative to support investors looking to set up new hotels in the local market.

SIC’s mandatory tender offer for CIRA, priced at EGP15 per share, will be valid from December 18, 2024, to January 16, 2025. 

According to local media, CIRA has announced plans to inject new investments, totaling EGP1 billion over the next two years. These investments will be directed towards launching the first phase of Damietta University and the Swiss School which is a project developed in partnership with Ahly CIRA and MASR.

CIRA revealed its intention to issue a new tranche of its sukuk financing program worth EGP500 million in the coming days. 

Egypt ceramics exports declined by 19% YoY to USD93 million in the first 10 months of 2024. 

Orascom Development Holding AG (ODH) announces that LPSO Holding Ltd. launched a voluntary public tender offer for all publicly held registered shares of ODH. LPSO is the primary holding company of the Sawiris family, the majority shareholder group of ODH who already holds in aggregate 77.50% of the registered shares of ODH.

EDA’s chairman held a meeting with Saudi Industry Minister to study cooperation opportunities related to localizing pharmaceuticals’ APIs production.

Eva Pharma has started producing and selling locally manufactured insulin glargine in collaboration with US-based Eli Lilly for the first time in the country. 

The Egyptian Natural Gas Holding Company (EGAS) has signed an agreement with BP and Shell to begin production from the offshore Harmattan gas field in the Mediterranean by 1Q26, Asharq Business reports. 

Halliburton is mulling more investment in the Egyptian market, the company’s President Eastern Hemisphere Shannon Slocum said during a meeting with Oil Minister Karim Badawi

BTFH’s subsidiary Beltone Leasing and Factoring has inked an EGP350 million sale and leaseback agreement with SEKEM Group.

- Market Overview 
- AMOC
- GBCO 
- ORWE
- TMGH


- Prepared by: Mayada Amin - CETA, CFTe

Chinese steelmaker Wu’an Xin Feng has a plan to set up a USD1.7 bn integrated industrial complex in the Suez Canal Economic Zone (SCZone). 

Egypt’s oil subsidy bill for the current fiscal year is expected to surpass EGP200 bn, significantly higher than the EGP154 bn initially allocated, a source said.

Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly met with Saudi Industry and Mineral Resources Minister Bandar Alkhorayef yesterday, where they agreed to include the sectors of petrochemical, pharma, and automotive in the broader agreements signed between the two countries back in October, according to statements from both nations. 

Industry Minister Kamel El Wazir confirmed in the meeting that the animal feed industry has become eligible to participate in the subsidized loan program that offers businesses loans at a 15% interest rate, nearly half the central bank's post-float 28.25% lending rate.

The ministerial group for industrial development greenlit the proposal to not renew industrial licenses for any factory situated in residential areas or unplanned industrial areas.

The House approved a USD 2 bn loan from Emirates NBD, Standard Chartered, and a number of other banks. 

The Ministry of Finance agreed to provide marketing support worth EGP3.5 billion, for about 1.5 to 1.6 million quintals of blossom cotton produced this season, noting that the support came due to the cessation of auctions of the government cotton marketing system.

The Industry Ministry is mulling a five-year, USD250 mn plan to develop state-owned EGAL (FV: EGP155.00, OW), according to a statement following a meeting of the ministerial group for industrial development. 

The Financial Regulatory Authority has given its approval for ESRS to begin procedures for delisting its shares from the EGX, with the board-approved decision to now be put forward to a general assembly.

The Financial Regulatory Authority approved the Social Impact Capital Limited (SIC) mandatory tender offer to acquire 48.78% of CIRA at a share price of EGP15. 

HDBK BoD approved Increasing the authorized capital from EGP10 billion to EGP30 billion and to distribute one free share for each original share from the general reserve amounting to EGP 6.507 billion as of Sep-end 2024, emphasizing that this balance does not include any of the profits achieved during the fiscal year ending on Dec 2024) so that the issued and paid-in capital after the increase becomes EGP 10.626 billion instead of EGP5.313 billion. 

CICH announces the successful exit of its strategic stake in Taaleem Management Services, after a five-year holding period.

The exit delivered exceptional returns, generating four and a half times the equity invested and achieving an IRR of approximately 50%.

CNFN partners up with Engazaat to ensure small farmers and support them in establishing sustainable farming practices in the Al Moghra region of the Western Desert. 

BTFH's subsidiary, Beltone Leasing and Factoring announces its membership in FCI, the leading representative body for factoring and financing open account trade receivables.

BP and the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company’s (Adnoc) investment arm, XRG, finalized the establishment of Arcius Energy, a joint venture aimed at expanding natural gas operations in Egypt, according to a joint press release. 

The Oil Ministry is aiming to increase gas production by 400-500 million cubic feet per day by March 2025. 

Industry experts expect an increase of 280% in the total value of throughput of PoS between 2021 and 2024, reaching EGP640 billion by the end of this year.