Alpha Bets

In this final preseason episode, @deepvaluebettor and @contextcapper debate the Super Bowl promise of the Detroit Lions, the uncertainty surrounding the Chicago Bears' new quarterback Caleb Williams, the overrated potential of Jordan Love's Green Bay Packers, and the savory possibility of a Sam Darnold resurgence.

In the 2024 season premiere episode of Alpha Bets, @deepvaluebettor, @throwthedamball, and @contextcapper provide an in-depth analysis of the NFC South's teams for the 2024 NFL season. They discuss preseason rankings and market expectations, focusing on the volatility and potential value in the Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and New Orleans Saints. They debate scenarios involving key player impacts, such as Bryce Young's development, and evaluate offensive and defensive metrics using EDP (earned drive points). They highlight the mismanagement and injuries affecting past performances and suggest betting strategies, emphasizing the upside potential of the Panthers and cautioning against the overhyped Falcons.

Brett (@deepvaluebettor), Zach (@contextcapper), and Judah (@throwthedamball) search for alpha and investigate exploitable angles across their favorite games on the NFL Week 5 slate, with a focus on the Circa Million contest.

Brett (@deepvaluebettor), Zach (@contextcapper), and Judah (@throwthedamball) search for alpha and investigate exploitable angles across their favorite games on the NFL Week 4 slate, with a focus on the Circa Million contest.

*This episode is snipped from our GameTRADE live betting stream on Thursday Night Football, so the audio is less polished and there are several sounds of New York City in the background due to window being open (grrr)*

Brett (@deepvaluebettor) and Judah (@throwthedamball) recap NFL Week 2 live betting performance, evaluate their machine learning-enabled Drive Quality model scoreboard, assess changes to industry analyst consensus market power rankings, and investigate angles across their favorite games on the NFL Week 3 slate.

Brett (@deepvaluebettor), Judah (@throwthedamball), and guest Eric Eager from Sumer Sports (@ericeager_) evaluate the Chiefs, Broncos, Chargers, and Raiders betting prospects in 2023 from a markets and analytics perspective, and offer their favorite high-octane "alpha bets" for the division. 

Eric's heart wants to see upside in the Broncos, but his model is more ambivalent, leading him to take the Raiders alt over 7.5 wins at +195. The boys discuss how the Raiders may have performed better than their record indicated last year, and why the betting market's disrespect of Jimmy G may offer some value.

Judah doesn't see Russell Wilson rujenating his career, even with Sean Payton, particularly because the Saints/Brees scheme of highly accurate, middle-of-the-field passes with YAC receivers doesn't neatly fit Wilson and this offense's current core skillsets. He likes betting Broncos last in division at +250.

Brett doesn't want to outright fade a powerhouse like the Chiefs with elite coaching and a superstar QB that elevates all those around him, but also thinks the price for the Chiefs alt over 12.5 wins is overly optimistic and underappreciates the natural volatility of an NFL season (+ the Chiefs unusually strong injury luck the last 3 seasons). He likes under 12.5 wins at -155. 

Check out more of our research at www.sportfoliokings.com.

Brett (@deepvaluebettor), Judah (@throwthedamball), and guest Andy Molitor from Betsperts and the Deep Dive Podcast (@andymsfw) pick apart the Bengals, Browns, Ravens, and Steelers betting prospects in 2023 from a markets and analytics perspective, and offer their favorite high-octane "alpha bets" for the division. 

0:00 - Intro

1:34 - Alpha bets

6:57 - Steelers

22:06 - Browns

39:39 - Ravens

48:50 - Bengals

54:06 - Live betting discussion

Check out more of our research at www.sportfoliokings.com.

Brett (@deepvaluebettor), Judah (@throwthedamball), and guest Ben Brown from PFF (@pff_benbrown) slice and dice the Bears, Packers, Vikings, and Lions betting prospects in 2023 from a markets and analytics perspective, and offer their favorite high-octane "alpha bets" for the division. 

The Chicago Bears right tail outcomes look fat and if it all comes together (asking a lot) this team could be the Lions of 2022 (but so much relies on Justin Fields development as a passer, and the arrival of DJ Moore helps...but isn't going to unilaterally elevate Fields).

The Green Bay Packers have been a bottom 5 offensive pace team with Aaron Rodgers - now with an inexperienced QB, inexperienced WRs, and a rookie TE, least scored points +1100 looks attractive.

The Minnesota Vikings and Kirk Cousins are models of consistency, and in a division ripe with uncertainty + the addition of Brian Flores to improave a dreadful defense, +300 division winners is juicy.

Goff had a ceiling year in 2022, and expecting that performance again is a vulnerability (unless Ben Johnson truly is the next offensive genius). But the Lions won't be sneaking up on anyone this year and expectations are sky high. This makes the Lions fragile and under 9.5 wins +100 is Brett's division alpha bet.

Check out more of our research at www.sportfoliokings.com.

Brett (@deepvaluebettor), Judah (@throwthedamball), and guest Seth (@bullytheboard) evaluate the Jaguars, Colts, Texans, and Titans betting prospects in 2023 from a markets and analytics perspective, and offer their favorite high-octane "alpha bets" for the division.

Check us out at www.sportfoliokings.com.

Brett (@deepvaluebettor), Judah (@throwthedamball), and Steven (@pattonanalytics) evaluate the Saints, Falcons, Panthers, and Bucs betting prospects in 2023.

Drawing on their expertise in both traditional Wall Street strategies and building innovative sports betting models, the trio offers a fresh and comprehensive recap of each team's 2022 performance using advanced analytics to cut through the noise, showcasing the impressive forecasting ability of their flagship Drive Quality model to reprice teams more quickly than broader market adjustments. Brett, Judah, and Steven then take a quantitative deep-dive into the 2023 season, evaluating betting opportunities and isolating futures trades they think offer the most alpha potential. We're just warming up, Kings. It's gonna be an exciting season! 

Learn more about us at www.sportfoliokings.com.