American Monetary Association

Today Jason welcomes the 'mad scientist of multifamily' Neal Bawa of Grocapitus investments. They talk about how demography affects real estate, where the housing market is and where it might be headed and the factors affecting your investments. Neal is a technologist who is universally known in the real estate circles as the Mad Scientist of Multifamily. Besides being one of the most in-demand speakers in commercial real estate, Neal is a data guru, a process freak, and an outsourcing expert.

Neal treats his $1+ billion-dollar multifamily portfolio as an ongoing experiment in efficiency and optimization. The Mad Scientist lives by two mantras. His first mantra is that: We can only manage what we can measure. His second mantra is that: Data beats gut feel by a million miles. These mantras and a dozen other disruptive beliefs drive profit for his 800+ investors.

Watch the videos HERE and HERE.

Mentioned:

David Graeber, Debt: The First 5,000 Years

Ivy Zelman

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Greetings still from Ecuador, which is on an elevation of 12,000 feet! Today Jason talks about another bank run and how this puts massive inflationary pressure on the entire economic system. He also talks about how new home sales proves Wall Street was wrong- saying low housing inventory is "fake news" and even how the MLS' Active listings since 1982 chart confirms this!

And Jason interviews Adam LeBor, author of the book "Tower of Basel." Adam takes us on a journey to uncover the history of the Bank for International Settlements, also known as the Tower of Basel. He explores the power and influence of this mysterious institution, which is said to be the central bank of the world's central banks. Through interviews with experts and a deep dive into historical events, Adam gives us insight into the inner workings of the bank, its role in the global financial system, the complexities of the international banking system and the forces that shape it.

Key Takeaways:

Jason's editorial

1:28 Greetings from an elevation of 12,000 feet!

2:22 Another bank run! and the massive inflationary pressure in the system

4:33 New home sales proving Wall Street was wrong

6:16 MLS Chart: Active listings since 1982

7:48 Demographics Exhibit 1: US population by age

9:11 Inflation Induced Debt Destruction and the 100% FREE financing opportunities

12:52 Using the Land To Improvement (LTI) ratio, Income property will keep on going strong

15:00 Keep listening to our Flashback Friday episodes and a few announcements

Adam LeBor's interview

16:33 Welcome Adam LeBor

17:25 Distinguishing between the 3 big entities

18:34 Do all bankers participate

19:38 The shadowy history of this secret bank

21:35 The necessity of it's existence

23:51 Coordinating between central banks

25:52 Flooding the market with cheap money and the psychological effects on society

28:47 Strange History- Hitler's American Banker

31:49 "Money finds a way."

33:16 The 30 year rule and their YouTube channel

34:48 The connection between the BIS and the euro

37:04 The European Union and the Euro

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Jason also welcomes Mike Simonsen of Altos Research as they discuss the factors that keep people from selling their homes and how federal and tax policies contribute to the shortage in housing inventory! Moreover, these factors create more upward pressure on rents!

For more detailed information on the charts discussed in the show, visit AltosResearch.com.

Key Takeaways:

0:28 Introducing Mike Simonsen of Altos Research

1:20 Mike's macro view and insights on the current housing market

4:20 There will be sellers who won't be selling above the 5.5% mortgage rate

6:00 Factors that keep a lid on inventory for a long time- including fed and tax policies

10:20 Creating more upward pressure on rents

12:00 Total inventory home for sale – US Single Family

14:15 What is the chart not telling us?

17:32 Buyers have stopped buying especially at the 5% threshold

20:06 Median homes list prices – US Single Family

22:00 Where these pricing data come from and the median price on new listings

23:37 Possibility of larger homes not coming into the market in this time of the year

25:30 Weekly inventory change – US Single Family homes

31:00 Standard of living will give in; people will go down the socio-economic ladder

34:14 San Francisco Inventory: Weekly Single Family

35:09 Percent of homes taking price reductions, single family homes US national

37:48 Application for sellers and buyers; going ahead of the curve in your local market

41:09 Where do we go from here?

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Jason Hartman welcomes Eric Basmajian, economic analyst and founder of EPB Macro Research. Jason and Eric discuss the rapid decline in real personal income and standard of living, how the rate shock will filter through to the housing market and much more. Eric also talks about the single most important variable to understand where the next 10 years of the real estate market are going and the four corners of an economy: income, consumption, employment and production.

How far do our dollars actually go and how do we measure the standard of living in real terms? Eric looks for inflection points in long term economic cycles, what he calls secular economic trends, and cyclical trends to better position people for what's on the other side. We now have a rate shock being pushed onto the private sector which will cause a lot of problems as it filters through to the housing sector. So if you have no new home sales, or no new construction, and you have no existing home sales, how is that going to impact employment in the construction sector? How is that going to impact hours worked or hourly earnings in the construction sector? And as higher costs are being pushed onto the private sector, whether it's construction, food or gas prices, we're seeing a rapid decline in real personal income.

Eric Basmajian is an economic analyst providing research on the most critical secular and cyclical economic trends impacting interest rates and asset prices.

Learn about Eric's secular and cyclical framework: https://www.epbmacroresearch.com/

Key Takeaways:

0:00 Welcome Eric Basmajian, founder of EPB Macro Research

1:12 The Fed and increasing rates - did they panic?

5:26 Are we in for a 30 year housing shortage?

8:36 Homes for sale and permits for new construction

10:53 Higher costs pushed onto the private sector

13:35 As private borrowing rates increase, result will be a huge pullback in spending

15:29 Savings rate has come down substantially

16:45 The Consumer Price Index is understated

18:46 Almost no first time buyer market anymore

21:19 Working age demographics around the world

25:45 Secular economic trend predictions for the next 3-5+ years

26:42 Transfer of wealth from baby boomers to millennials

29:33 The single most important variable to understand where the next 10 years of the real estate market are going

33:17 The demand curve is set by those demographics

35:27 Immigration can help the demographic curve

37:05 Four corners of the economy: income, consumption, employment and production

38:43 Increasing talk of recession

41:39 We live in a centrally planned economy

44:18 Learn about Eric's secular and cyclical framework: https://www.epbmacroresearch.com/

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Special Offer from Ron LeGrand: https://JasonHartman.com/Ron

Free Mini-Book on Pandemic Investing: https://www.PandemicInvesting.com

On this episode, Jason brings on Steven Thomas Founder of ReportsOnHousing.com to give his feedback on the current state of the market and how it will affect things moving forward.

Utilizing his Quantitative Economics and Decision Sciences background coupled with his years of experience in the real estate field as a REALTOR®, broker, and executive of a multi-office real estate franchise, Steven Thomas delivers a report that captures the true essence of the current real estate market.

Most economic housing reports analyze and discuss closed sales data, a look at the market through the rearview mirror. Closed sales are a reflection of pending sales that are put together 30 to 60-days prior to the closing. Reports on Housing's report is a close look at supply and demand, the current listing inventory, current pending sale activity, and the expected market time for homes placed onto the market today. It is more of a current real estate market dashboard than a look in the rearview mirror.

Key Takeaways:

0:00 Who is Steven Thomas?

1:00 Why are people hesitating to let go of their properties?

3:20 Have we ever been in a market like we have today?

4:20 How long will the impact of inflation affect the market?

9:30 Will mobile mortgages be implemented soon?

10:40 What will the CPI be like in the coming years?

13:40 How is inflation affecting society today?

16:00 Why is the model for supply and demand broken?

18:03 What markets are seeing inventory catching up to pre-COVID levels?

19:18 What will happen to wages in this high-inflation economy?

20:40 What should we be expecting to happen in the market?

22:20 What makes the current condition of the market different?

23:30 Why should people focus more on rental properties?

30:50 How can you reach out to Steven?

Links

https://www.jasonhartman.com

https://reportsonhousing.com/

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Jason Hartman welcomes Sachin Khajuria, investor and author of the newly released book Two and Twenty: How the Masters of Private Equity Always Win for a fascinating discussion on private equity investing. Private equity was once an investment niche, but many of its leading firms today control an amount of wealth that surpasses the GDP of some nations!

You hear a lot of people accusing private equity of underperforming or not creating any value. There is plenty of criticism against this sort of investment, but Sachin would disagree and in his book, he teaches you to identify the best opportunities which do very well. Sachin explores the future of private equity investing, how it has evolved and what can be done to make it more accessible.

Key Takeaways:

0:30 Welcome Sachin Khajuria, investor and author of Two and Twenty: How the Masters of Private Equity Always Win

1:45 Sachin's macroeconomic outlook

3:09 Where continuous money printing has led us

4:08 It was a forced recession

4:57 Zombie companies of the S&P 500

6:30 The Russia Ukraine war continues to disrupt

7:12 Where to invest now?

8:22 Investing in private equity deals

9:40 You are probably already a customer of private equity

11:29 Private equity is highly active investing

13:06 Venture capital typically deals more with startups

13:58 Private equity aims to improve existing assets

15:40 Private equity has evolved into new spaces

16:11 Sachin's book: Two and Twenty: How the Masters of Private Equity Always Win

19:53 Can regular middle class people invest in these deals?

21:19 Is my money safe? How stable are private equity firms?

23:01 Access to these investments will come with regulation and education

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Special Offer from Ron LeGrand: https://JasonHartman.com/Ron

Free Mini-Book on Pandemic Investing: https://www.PandemicInvesting.com

36:56 Get Sachin's fantastic new book to learn more!

Alf is Italian but is coming today from the Netherlands. He and Jason talk about some of the factors that contributed to the collapse of the Silicon Valley Bank, the largest bank failure since the 2008 financial crisis. They discuss the moral hazard involved, mismanaged portfolios and the lack of proper risk management- factors that culminated on the banks demise, making investors question whether this will spark a broader banking meltdown.

Key Takeaways:

Jason's editorial

1:21 Hope you enjoyed last episode

2:03 Listen to Jason's "10 commandments of successful investing": Thou shalt maintain control!

4:38 Housing inventory keeps falling- where's the crash?

7:10 Almost 25% of mortgages are 3% or lower

8:19 On to our guest with a deep dive into the current banking crisis

Alfonso Peccatiello interview

9:14 Alf, coming from the Netherlands

10:03 3 Bank collapses; a summary of what really happened

13:42 US Banks loan-to-deposit ratios

16:06 Moral Hazard and a mismanaged portfolio

19:16 Big banks hedge interest rate risks- NOT SVB

22:28 Lax regulatory and accounting laws in the US for small banks

23:34 Who benefited from the collapse

24:36 Securities portfolio mix as of December 31, 2022; distinguishing between small and highly regulated banks

29:29 SVB 'woke' programs and the lack of proper risk management

30:39 Bank failures 2001 to 2023; are more bank collapses coming

31:56 At risk: the real estate market; unaffordable housing leads to more renters

34:50 Compared to what

37:43 The booming labor market

39:02 Credibility & central banks; Blackstone & KKR, Jerome Powell & Paul Volcker

44:25 There is no distressed home owner

48:10 Institutional investors- what their capital stack or debt structure is like

49:32 Step up your macro game https://www.themacrocompass.com

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Listen in as Jason explains the debacle that is the Silicon Valley Bank collapse, the ripple effects it's having in the banking community, the poison pill the FED has placed in the housing market and how it has painted itself in a corner. He also talks about what the government can do, how you can use his patented Inflation Induced Debt Destruction strategy to come out on top in these uncertain times and how you can protect your assets. Just go to https://www.jasonhartman.com/Protect for more details.

Key Takeaways:

1:18 Silicon Valley Bank and Bank Run: Margin Call

2:47 Catch the Ron Paul FlashBack Friday episode and thanks to all who attended the Alabama Property Tour

3:11 Fear of Contagion and a taxpayer funded bailout; the tech dot com bubble

7:09 Children in adult bodies and a history of manias

8:28 The SVB crisis explained

10:37 Runaway inflation or banking system collapse, memes

12:45 Signature bank and Silvergate; SVB holdings compared to other banks

20:32 Alf from Twitter

21:25 US bank loan-to-deposit ratios

22:55 While SVB collapsed, top executive pushed "woke" programs

27:16 Memes and more memes; CNBC's Jim Cramer urged viewers to buy shares of SVB last month

30:41 Bank failures 2001 to 2023

32:17 SVB financial deposits, quarterly net change

33:35 SVB's insured versus uninsured deposits

34:08 Biggest bank failures and the FDIC

35:01 FREE class: CYA protect your assets, save taxes and estate planning

36:38 The decision to bail out SVB

38:13 What can we do; the 2 year treasury yield and Inflation Induced Debt Destruction

Mentioned:

https://www.jasonhartman.com/Protect

Follow Jason on TWITTER, INSTAGRAM & LINKEDIN Twitter.com/JasonHartmanROI Instagram.com/jasonhartman1/ Linkedin.com/in/jasonhartmaninvestor/

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Jason Hartman is joined by Wesley Gray, CEO of Alpha Architect for a fascinating discussion on inflation hedges and future scenarios for commodities and crypto.

How should we allocate risk right now? Why is crypto performing so poorly? Are we truly becoming a Banana Republic that does not end well? Jason and Wesley discuss a few things that you should always consider including keeping your tax rates down as much as possible. Fees and taxes are things you can often control, whereas we can't control what the economy or inflation is going to do.

And why is crypto doing so poorly when it should, at least in theory, be the inflation hedge asset? Where's Michael Saylor? Isn't Bitcoin digital gold? Without a military behind it, will cryptocurrencies ever be truly viable?

Key takeaway:

0:28 Welcome Wesley Gray, CEO & Co-CIO, Alpha Architect – Empowering investors through education

1:31 How do we allocate risk?

3:17 What assets should you be owning right now? Stocks, commodities?

6:24 Controlling your tax rates

7:49 Will we see incredibly high interest rates needed to tame inflation?

8:31 We are becoming a Banana Republic and it won't end well

10:05 Alpha Architect investment philosophies

11:38 Following trends in crypto, bonds & stocks

13:19 Why is crypto doing so poorly right now?

15:00 Ponzi schemes backed by military

16:07 The ability to inflict violence is what makes the world run

16:50 Freedom in Iraq vs Freedom in the US

18:03 Learn more and check out Wesley's blog at AlphaArchitect.com and follow on Twitter! @alphaarchitect

Wesley R. Gray, Ph.D.

CEO & Co-CIO, Alpha Architect

After serving as a Captain in the United States Marine Corps, Dr. Gray earned an MBA and a PhD in finance from the University of Chicago where he studied under Nobel Prize Winner Eugene Fama. Next, Wes took an academic job in his wife's hometown of Philadelphia and worked as a finance professor at Drexel University. Dr. Gray's interest in bridging the research gap between academia and industry led him to found Alpha Architect, an asset management firm dedicated to an impact mission of empowering investors through education. Wes has published multiple academic papers and four books, including Embedded (Naval Institute Press, 2009), Quantitative Value (Wiley, 2012), DIY Financial Advisor (Wiley, 2015), and Quantitative Momentum (Wiley, 2016).

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Welcome to today's episode of The Creating Wealth Show where Jason Hartman reminds you that there is an important distinction to make between interest rates, housing affordability and the ability to qualify for a loan based on the usual things, such as credit score and debt-to-income ratio. There's a general overriding concept of credit availability, not directly related to interest rates: this is the willingness of lenders to lend and the ability of borrowers to borrow, measured by the Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI). The credit supply is down, meaning it is now harder to get a mortgage than it used to be.

Jason Hartman welcomes Patrick Ceresna, Founder of Big Picture Trading and host of the MacroVoices Podcast to the show to talk about the current macroeconomic picture we are facing today. Patrick explains why our inflation problems are not going away anytime soon. The only mechanism which the central banks have to slow an economy is the cost of credit, reflected in interest rate policy. However, the problem in this cycle is that when the inflation is not driven by massive demand, but rather supply issues, then the ability for monetary policy to actually have an impact diminishes.

We are in the midst of a bear market on asset prices which may not have fully reflected into the real estate markets yet, but in terms of stock markets, bond markets, even slowly into commodities and other things, there has been a deflationary cycle in assets, while there's huge economic inflation because the central banks have begun a very important process of trying to attack inflation by slowing the economy. The only mechanism which the central banks have to slow an economy is the cost of credit, reflected in interest rate policy.

However, the problem in this cycle, and why you have the debate of inflation, stagflation, or deflation is that when the inflation is not driven by massive demand, but rather supply issues, then the ability for monetary policy to actually have an impact diminishes.

We've created all sorts of supply shocks that add further stress points that create additional cost delays and shipping and all sorts of other issues that are not going away. And it's not going to be solved by the Fed increasing another 75 basis points next month. This is a problem where inflation has to be solved by a bigger cycle playing out. And that, unfortunately, is not one that ends in three months. It's a problem that resolves over a couple years. Inflation is an issue that's not going away anytime soon.

Key Takeaways:

0:28 Welcome Empowered Investors from 189 countries world wide

1:07 Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI)

2:21 The Great Recession, the mortgage meltdown and The Big Short

4:22 Credit supply in a credit based economy

5:54 Empowered Investor Pro - EmpoweredInvestor.com

8:08 Wall Street is the modern version of organized crime

9:18 Regulating the food supply

10:42 Messaging apps and insider trading

13:51 Last week, the Euro reached parity with the dollar

17:14 Downward pressure on the inflationary spiral

18:21 Why Dave Ramsey is wrong

20:46 Today's guest PATRICK CERESNA, Founder of Big Picture Trading

21:34 Patrick's current macroeconomic picture

23:41 Energy shortage - oil vs green

27:11 CPI inflation numbers could come down, but it's no merit of the Fed

28:49 The 70s had three waves of inflation

30:38 The global pandemic was a unique event

33:24 What investments do you own in an environment like this?

37:35 Could derivatives crash the global economy?

40:41 There a global system risk, not just American

43:09 We are in a fourth turning and there will be some major financial institution reset eventually

45:20 The destruction of purchasing value is the driver of a monetary driven inflation

46:46 The US dollar rising right now is going to keep inflation in check

49:10 At the end of every bear market is a once a decade opportunity to buy a lot of cheap stuff

50:56 A good investor or trader knows when to leave a party and go to a new one

52:54 Learn more at BigPictureTrading.com and check out Patrick's podcasts: MacroVoices and Market Huddle

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Special Offer from Ron LeGrand: https://JasonHartman.com/Ron

Free Mini-Book on Pandemic Investing: https://www.PandemicInvesting.com