American Monetary Association

Jason Hartman invites Joseph Wang aka The Fed Guy, to the show today. Who better to talk about the inner workings of the Federal Reserve than someone who actually worked there! Joseph Wang is a former senior trader on the open markets desk at the Federal Reserve and the author of Central Banking 101.

Jason and Joseph tackle the biggest question on everyone's mind: will mortgage rates go higher? How much higher can they go? Why did the Fed wait so long to start quantitative tightening and raise rates? Why didn't they do it more gradually?

Do you think Powell really thought inflation was transitory as he kept saying? It seems there was a political basis for him thinking that way, which filtered into policy and partially resulted in the huge inflation we're seeing right now. But what gives? If you don't raise rates in order to avoid increased unemployment, then inflation will continue.

Joseph Wang also gives his take on the Fed's response during times of economic crisis such as the Great Recession and the recent pandemic. Was it right of the Fed to get involved and stimulate the economy, or should they have let the economy and markets work themselves out?

Is the Fed part of a greater conspiracy? Is there a man behind the curtain pulling the strings? Joseph Wang tells all!

FedGuy.com

Key Takeaways:

0:28 Welcome Joseph Wang, former senior trader on the open markets desk at the Federal Reserve, author of Central Banking 101

1:33 Interest rates and mortgage backed securities

4:03 Quantitative easing - buying mortgages and treasuries, quantitative tightening - higher mortgage rates

7:21 Raising the borrowing rate above the inflation rate

9:33 Rents are going higher

11:36 Short term vs long term interest rates

12:55 Decreased labor supply and higher wages

14:33 China is the fastest aging country in the entire world

17:24 The Fed is absolutely political

21:37 Debt to GDP ratio and the dollar collapse

24:22 Why do other countries buy dollars?

27:53 Bloodbath in the cryptocurrency markets

29:53 Understanding the Fed - is there a man behind the curtain?

31:56 Was the Fed right to interfere during Covid and the Great Recession?

34:53 What is a shadow bank?

36:56 The story behind Long Term Capital Management

37:58 Economic outlook: be cautious with financial assets

39:36 Joseph Wang's book Central Banking 101, learn more at FedGuy.com, follow Joseph on Twitter @FedGuy12

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Peter Zeihan, author and geopolitical strategist, is back on the show with Jason Hartman to discuss inflation, the breakdown of supply chains and global manufacturing, the labor shortage, generational demographics, the Russia Ukraine conflict, and so much more!

"In his timely new book, The End of the World is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization, author and geopolitical strategist Peter Zeihan maps out the next world: a world where countries or regions will have no choice but to make their own goods, grow their own food, secure their own energy, fight their own battles, and do it all with populations that are both shrinking and aging.

The list of countries that make it all work is smaller than you think. Which means everything about our interconnected world - from how we manufacture products, to how we grow food, to how we keep the lights on, to how we shuttle stuff about, to how we pay for it all - is about to change. A world ending. A world beginning. Zeihan brings readers along for an illuminating (and a bit terrifying) ride packed with foresight, wit, and his trademark irreverence."

At the moment, the labor disconnect is the single largest issue behind our inflation numbers and the worker shortage will increase every year until 2030. The advanced worker cadre of baby boomers is moving into retirement and the need for government spending to keep these people alive will skyrocket.

The very core of globalization is that anyone can go anywhere to get anything. This will change as China is no longer a reliable manufacturing partner and many companies are on their way out. Also, when we talk about the breakdown of supply chains, we're entering into a world where raw commodity access is no longer guaranteed, so we can look forward to large portions of the world losing access to the inputs that are necessary to attempt a modern lifestyle. Take silicon for semiconductors for example; 95% of it comes from one mine in North Carolina. So it's one thing to control global food or global energy - it's another thing when you can control the only input that allows digitization to even theoretically happen.

The sourcing of raw materials is critical. Now that the world's top wheat exporter has invaded the world's number four wheat exporter, what short and long term consequences can we expect? Not to mention that Russia is also the world's largest exporter of fertilizer and the components necessary so people can make it. We're in the early stages of a multi year shortage in all things agricultural.

Key Takeaways:

0:00 Welcome Peter Zeihan, he just released his new book The End of the World is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization

1:54 Globalization is unique to this period in history

3:19 Mass explosion of economic activity around the world

4:43 Aging demographics around the world

6:00 China crammed 200 years of economic advancement into 40 years

10:03 Historically, capital and demographics have not been intertwined

12:22 The link between inflation capital availability and demographics - Boomers are retiring in large numbers

13:25 We have a 400,000 workers shortage and that will increase every year until 2030

15:14 The labor disconnect is the single largest issue behind our inflation numbers

18:00 Labor market over the next 20 years

19:22 Can China take over the world?

22:43 China's severe lockdown measures

24:45 China in Africa

27:01 Will automation destroy jobs?

29:49 The future of manufacturing

31:53 Was the Bretton Woods Agreement a good system?

34:47 Peter Zeihan on industrial commodities

37:46 What's next for the economy?

40:42 Building material shortage

42:49 Learn more at Zeihan.com. Follow Peter on Twitter @PeterZeihan and check out his new book - The End of the World is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization

PETER ZEIHAN is an expert in geopolitics: the study of how place impacts financial, economic, cultural, political and military developments. He presents customized executive briefings to a wide array of audiences which include, but are not limited to, financial professionals, Fortune 500 firms, energy investors, and a mix of industrial, power, agricultural and consulting associations and corporations. Mr. Zeihan has been featured in, and cited by, numerous newspapers and broadcasts including The Wall Street Journal, Forbes, AP, Bloomberg, CNN, ABC, The New York Times, Fox News and MarketWatch.

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Is the World Economic Forum in Davos a serious discussion about climate change and injustice, or just a chance for billionaires to get together and do business? Find out as Jason Hartman interviews Peter S. Goodman, Global Economic Correspondent for The New York Times, as they discuss his new book, Davos Man: How the Billionaires Devoured the World.

The World Economic Forum institution was started by German economist Klaus Schwab back in the 70s, on the proposition that if you got businesses and governments together, you could solve a lot of problems. Schwab claims to be interested in public private partnerships and win-win solutions. But somewhere along the way, the WEF has become, under the guise of a nonprofit foundation, a highly lucrative enterprise. Schwab brings in heads of state from around the world to meet with billionaires, public intellectuals, a whole lot of journalists, the odd Hollywood celebrity, musicians etc. But according to Goodman, it's a charade; they are there to do business.

The WEF 2022 recently took place last May. Peter profiles the "Davos Man" as someone who makes himself the solution where he is the problem: just allow us to do our deals, and have our conversations about how to solve the big problems of the day and we will take care of that and all of the benefits will just magically trickle down throughout society. Let's not kid ourselves. That is something that has in reality happened zero times…

Watch the video HERE.

Key Takeaways:

0:00 Welcome Peter S. Goodman, Global Economic Correspondent for The New York Times, author of Davos Man: How the Billionaires Devoured the World

1:02 World Economic Forum conference in Davos - is this a shadow government?

3:01 Rent-seeking behavior in Davos

3:56 The WEF was started by German economist Klaus Schwab back in the 70s

5:04 A chance for the billionaire class to virtue signal

7:08 Who is the "Davos Man?"

9:27 Marc Benioff, philanthropy, Trump tax cuts and capitalism

11:50 Big companies avoid taxes by using foreign subsidiaries

16:56 Christian Smalls, Amazon warehouse worker

19:38 "Davos Man" makes himself the solution where he is the problem

23:57 Bankers get bailed out, but homeowners don't

24:52 Healthcare system and surprise billing

29:03 Generating profit opportunities for themselves at social expense

35:08 Is Trump the "Anti-Davos Man?"

37:56 China is a complex challenge for the global trading system

43:06 China's WTO session was driven by the interests of American shareholders

44:38 Our democratic society is under threat from this inequality

45:57 We need three things: progressive taxation, antitrust enforcement and collective bargaining

46:50 Get more info at PeterSGoodman.com. Follow Peter on Twitter @petersgoodman

About Peter S. Goodman

Peter S. Goodman is the global economic correspondent for The New York Times, based in New York. He appears regularly on The Daily podcast, as well as major broadcast outlets like CNN, the BBC, Sky News, MSNBC, and Monocle Radio. ​ He was previously Executive Global News and Business Editor of the Huffington Post, where he oversaw award-winning investigative, international, business, and technology reporting.

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​​Jason Hartman welcomes Lynette Zang, Chief Market Analyst for ITM Trading. We are at the end of this current monetary experiment! Central banks are out of tools and out of time. Are we headed into a hyperinflationary depression? The system is already shifting and will have to be reset - we just need a big enough crisis to get everybody on board…

Watch the video HERE.

Key Takeaways:

0:00 Welcome Lynette Zang, Chief Market Analyst for ITM Trading

1:48 Valuing Gold and crypto

4:01 Moving property and equity into the digital universe

5:03 What do you think the real rate of inflation is?

7:31 Inflation is a wealth transfer from the poor to the rich

9:48 Democracies such as Canada have gotten heavy handed

11:00 Modern monetary theory and central bank digital currencies

13:16 The Federal Reserve is out of tools

15:53 Purchasing power chart of the consumer dollar

17:37 Nixon closed the gold window on August 15 of 1971 and in that same era, he took a historic trip to China

19:42 Correlation between recessions and interest rates

22:29 Will the Fed continue to raise interest rates?

24:53 Nothing left for the Fed to do: the end is near

26:40 Is the reserve currency coming to an end?

28:58 A big strong middle class is what makes a country stable

30:51 Is gold insurance or an investment?

32:29 The number one product of any government and any central bank is its currency

33:36 Gold coins vs gold bullion

38:32 Learn more at ITM trading.com

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Jason Hartman explores the latest housing market data with returning guest Dr. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist and Senior Vice President of Research at the National Association of Realtors®.

The Federal Reserve has raised the interest rate only one time this year, yet we see how fast the mortgage rates are rising. However, if one looks at the past history, you can see that at times when the Fed aggressively raised interest rates, the mortgage rate barely budged. So is it possible that most of the mortgage rate increases this year may have already occurred? Will any further jacking up of the interest rate by the Fed necessarily have any meaningful impact on mortgage rates? According to Dr. Yun, the wildcard here is inflation and whether or not it continues to rise due to unforeseen events currently happening around the world.

Lawrence Yun is Chief Economist and oversees the Research group at the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®. He supervises and is responsible for a wide range of research activity for the association including NAR's Existing Home Sales statistics, Affordability Index, and Home Buyers and Sellers Profile Report. He regularly provides commentary on real estate market trends for its 1.4 million REALTORS®.

Dr. Yun received his undergraduate degree from Purdue University and earned his Ph.D. from the University of Maryland at College Park.

Key Takeaways:

0:00 Welcome returning guest Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist and Senior Vice President of Research at the National Association of Realtors

1:01 How long can this red hot housing market continue?

2:20 What does this mean for first time home buyers?

5:20 The cost burden has increased because of the home prices, but not in terms of the mortgage rate

7:46 What are the current housing inventory levels?

11:10 MLS - contingent and pending sales

12:17 Defining a balanced market

14:23 Will the market cool off with these higher rates?

15:42 Further interest rate hikes by the Fed may not have any meaningful impact on the mortgage rate

19:00 You can now buy a $1M home with an FHA loan in some areas

22:07 NARs chart on housing starts

24:14 Builders are not building entry level homes

26:47 Are we going to have a housing shortage for many, many years to come?

29:10 Boom in the home improvement industry

30:36 Possible inventory adjustment due to recent events

33:08 Job and housing market correlation

35:13 Multiple bids on rental units among renters

36:06 Do you see large investment companies continuing to buy more properties over the coming years?

38:31 There is a labor shortage across America

39:35 Increasing number of realtors

41:55 Increased home sales, increased prices but not increased ownership

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Jason Hartman invites Laurence Kotlikoff, Professor of Economics and NY Times Best Selling author of Money Magic: An Economist's Secrets to More Money, Less Risk, and a Better Life, to the show today.

Are the United States' long term fiscal problems solvable? How HIGH would federal taxes have to increase to pay for our spending? Could we fix the system with healthcare reform? What will be the economic consequences of Russia's war with Ukraine? Jason Hartman and Laurence Kotlikoff discuss the outlook for the future and much more, including unfunded mandates, debt vs. GDP, tax hikes, why NOT to borrow to pay for college and what to do in times of economic uncertainty.

Key Takeaways:

0:43 Welcome Laurence Kotlikoff, Professor of Economics and NY Times best-selling author

1:22 What are unfunded mandates?

2:34 Official and unofficial liabilities

3:07 Debt vs GDP

5:00 We need a sizable tax hike to fund social security benefits

7:52 Tax brackets and government benefit programs

9:28 Could we fix the system with healthcare reform?

15:55 Money printing puts pressure on prices

16:30 Kotlikoff on inflation and hyperinflation

19:28 Russia/Ukraine, China/Taiwan - what do these conflicts mean for the economy?

21:56 The humanitarian and economic consequences of war

23:32 Stock market risk

24:33 Tips from Kotlikoff's new book: Money Magic: An Economist's Secrets to More Money, Less Risk, and a Better Life

25:43 Don't borrow for college: it's a scam

28:41 Strategies to protect yourself in times of uncertainty

30:33 Find Laurence at Kotlikoff.net and final thoughts on Russia/Ukraine conflict

32:00 Government borrowing rates

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Jason Hartman welcomes back Harry Dent, New York Times Bestselling author, financial writer and one of the most outspoken financial editors in America, to discuss his new book ZERO HOUR and hear his thoughts on the stock market, crypto, demographics and the current economic climate.

We have the most perverted economy in history with money being injected into the financial markets creating a bubble in stocks and financial assets which favors the rich and leaves ordinary people behind and exacerbates income inequality. Are we at the peak of this artificial stock bubble? Harry Dent answers this and much more and goes into detail about why we NEED recessions!

Key Takeaways:

0:00 Welcome Harry Dent, bestselling author and financial writer

2:11 Most perverted economy in history

3:54 Is the artificial stock bubble peaking?

5:13 Greatest debt bubble in history

7:51 Imminent stock market crash

10:22 Harry's take on cryptocurrencies

13:18 Generational demographics and government policies

18:39 Why we need recessions

21:33 When is the next crash?

22:05 Once in a lifetime peak of a major stock market bubble

24:18 S&P 500 about to fall apart

27:25 Is gold a safe haven? What about bonds? Real estate?

27:57 Peter Schiff and deflation

33:59 $540 trillion in financial assets globally

37:47 The Cantillon Effect - the rich are getting richer

39:04 Most critical time in your lifetime for financial markets

40:30 Learn more at HarryDent.com

41:32 Real estate bubble?

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Jason Hartman interviews Jeff Snider, Chief Investment Strategist and Head of Global Research at Alhambra Investment Partners. Consumer prices and asset markets have created the illusion of a red hot economy, but according to Jeff, the bond market has been telling us what's been wrong since 2008. Jeff shares with us some incredible data that shakes up traditional thinking and gives us his insights on the Federal Reserve, interest rate hikes, monetary policy and money printing and the correlation between the yield curve and treasury markets.

Jeff also gives an in depth explanation of the hidden monetary system running the world. Even though most people have probably never heard the term Eurodollar, it has undertaken the functions of the global reserve currency and it did so a very long time ago as an ​​offshore currency market. The Eurodollar was developed on its own without government or individual private effort outside of every country's regulatory regime.

Key Takeaways:

0:45 Welcome Jeff Snider, ​​head of Global Research for Alhambra Investments

1:28 What is the Eurodollar?

4:02 Reserve currency system

7:01 Significance of the Eurodollar

9:10 Influence of the Eurodollar on interest rates

10:08 The Treasury market actually sets most credit rates around the world

11:45 High rates and tightening - Alan Greenspan

13:45 Seeing what the Treasury yields are reflecting to understand what will happen next

16:09 Yield curve inversion

17:33 Alan Greenspan and "irrational exuberance"

20:45 You can't keep track of money, so why bother trying?

21:40 Jeff Snider's outlook on inflation

24:18 Milton Friedman's interest rate fallacy

26:55 The Fed vs the Eurodollar system

28:39 Jerome Powell and the Fed interest rate hikes

31:27 Is consumer price inflation transitory?

32:29 What's to come in this massively overheated real estate market?

34:26 The flattening of the yield curve says the Treasury market is resisting higher rates

36:18 Consumer prices and asset markets have created this illusion of a red hot economy

37:55 Today's real estate market

39:48 The Gig Economy

41:52 Overreaction recession in 2020 did a lot of long term economic harm

44:52 Find Jeff Snider's research on his blog at

Alhambrapartners.com and check out his Eurodollar University Podcast

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Michael Zuber of One Rental At A Time interviews Jason about the Federal Reserve, its chairmen, past and present and offers a few predictions on how the Fed will be dealing with inflation and interest rates. Michael also asks Jason to comment on 3 potential things that could happen in our economy, given the "plandemic" and its consequences.

Key Takeaways:

1:49 Jerome Powell may be turning into Paul Volcker and the ramifications on the market

4:15 An economic malaise, taking away the punch bowl and reloading the metaphoric gun

5:55 Redeeming the "transitory" legacy of a non-automaton

6:53 The "Fed Put", saber-rattling and deciphering Greenspan

8:57 Ben Bernanke and the taming of inflation, mortgage rates versus house price, Hartman Comparison Index

12:01 Back pedaling, supply shortages and allocating human resources

14:02 Closing thoughts, Misery Index, Philipps Curve

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Jason Hartman invites Casey Michel, author and investigative journalist, to speak about his new book which uncovers how the US has created the greatest money laundering scheme in history.

South Dakota has pioneered an entire industry of what they call anonymous trusts. South Dakota has taken this to a magnitude we've never seen by creating perpetual anonymity for these trusts. The information of those in the trust will never be shared with governments, with other jurisdictions, tax authorities, investigators, which is why we've seen both Americans and non Americans flocking to South Dakota. $900 billion is the top line estimate in South Dakota, but it's still a question of how many total assets are actually there, who those assets are connected to and what those assets are actually doing after they pass through all the anonymity that the state of South Dakota freely offers.

Casey Michel's book also talks about illicit foreign money purchasing steel mills, factories and manufacturing plants in places like Cleveland, Ohio, the Rust Belt and the Midwest. They're not revitalizing local communities and bringing jobs back, but rather using those assets to hold and hide funds, using them as part of a broader transnational money laundering scheme. And so what ends up happening is that not only do the jobs never come back, the folks who have the remaining jobs are just laid off, the factories begin falling apart and it's clear they are never going to come back. These local communities in places such as West Virginia, Kentucky, Texas and Illinois are seeing their economic crown jewels go to complete rot because of this system of kleptocracy.

Towards the end of the broader Cold War period, one could see a sudden surge in the creation of financial secrecy pools and broader economic structuring that incentivized the outflow of illicit suspect wealth from post communist states. These states are linked directly to rising oligarchies and dictatorships that are smothering local populations, looting national treasuries, and making sure bridges, roads, hospitals and schools are never built. And then beyond that, there is no broader free market economy that actually develops in those countries.

CaseyMichel.com

0:29 Welcome Casey Michel, writer and investigative journalist, author of AMERICAN KLEPTOCRACY: How the U.S. Created the World's Greatest Money Laundering Scheme in History

1:10 What is a kleptocracy?

3:03 Kleptocracy is now a transnational phenomenon, closely intertwined with the broader offshoring economy

4:19 The World Summit

6:42 Incentivizing the outflow of suspect wealth from post communist states

8:00 Creating easy access to transnational financial flows

9:47 Private wealth located in global financial secrecy jurisdictions

11:49 The beneficiaries of dynastic wealth have flocked to places within the US

15:21 For every $1 that is given in foreign aid, $3 of untracked, illicit capital leaves those developing countries

16:34 Anti money laundering regulations across a number of industries except the real estate industry

18:27 Billions of illicit foreign money flowing into London real estate

19:14 Broader transnational money laundering scheme in local US communities

21:46 The offshoring world is comparable to a superpower such as the US or China

23:38 The sad state of the media today

25:54 Casey Michel's first book AMERICAN KLEPTOCRACY: How the U.S. Created the World's Greatest Money Laundering Scheme in History is out now from St. Martin's Press

26:51 Who are the world's biggest money laundering offenders?

28:56 Digital assets, art and money laundering

31:07 Learn more at http://www.caseymichel.com/

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