American Security Project

 

Today we are joined from Cairo by former Egyptian Senator and Civil Society leader Mona Makram Ebeid and from DC. just back from his fact-finding visit to Egypt, BGen Stephen A. Cheney USMC (Ret.).

“we are living in the most important days and weeks that will decide Egypt’s future.”

Senator Ebeid discussed the atmosphere in Egypt and the long lines of people waiting to vote. She noted there was “an amazing” turnout of women, who had not faired well under the previous constitution of 2012.

Mona said that it is clear that the new Constitution being voted on yesterday and today strips out the disputed Islamist language from the Muslim Brotherhood constitution, while underlining that Egypt was an Islamic state, protects all religious freedoms and protects the rights of moment and civil liberties.

Following the popular impeachment of Morsi, supported by the military, many Egyptians are now looking forward to political stability.

Click below to listen:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Click here to listen to yesterday’s podcast from Cairo –

 Report from Cairo – the Referendum and Egypt’s Future

 

Senator, Arab Republic of Egypt

Mona Makram-Ebeid has established herself as a leader in the Egyptian political and intellectual community. She is a graduate of Harvard University (1982), The American University in Cairo and Cairo University She has been a vocal and dynamic Member of Parliament from 1990-1995 where she served on the committees on Foreign Affairs, Education and Budget. She was concurrently elected Regional President of Parliamentarians for Global Action, an NGO based in New York. From 1992-1995 she served as advisor to the World Bank (MENA region). She has recently been appointed to the Egyptian National Council for Human Rights. She became a Member of the Egyptian Senate in January 2013. As an active member of the civil society she founded and chaired the Association for the Advancement of Education, (1995) a Cairo based NGO which supervises 100 government primary schools.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Today we are joined by phone from Cairo with Gladys Haddad.  Gladys is a civil society leader in Egypt who has just voted in the Constitutional Referendum this morning.

Gladys discusses the mood in Cairo, the referendum process, and what she expects next in Egypt.

She noted that there is a large turnout and almost celebration atmosphere today – especially among women, who for the first time have their rights guaranteed in the new Constitution. The last Constitution was written by the Muslim Brotherhood for the Muslim Brotherhood – this one was written by a wide range of Egyptians for the whole of Egypt.

She went on to ask the United States to “respect the will of Egyptians”. This is the first stage of the political process – next will be the elections of the President and Parliament – Egypt is on a new full democratic tack.

You can listen to the podcast by clicking below:

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Here are some of Gladys’ photographs from today’s voting:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

On Tuesday, December 17, 2013, the American Security Project hosted an event titled “Climate Security Vulnerability in Africa: Strategic Implications for the United States” with Dr. Joshua Busby, an Associate Professor of Public Affairs at the LBJ School of Public Affairs, as the featured speaker. Busby is a lead researcher for the Climate Change and African Political Stability (CCAPS) Program. CCAPS is funded by the U.S. Department of Defense’s Minerva Initiative, a social science research program focused on areas of strategic importance to national security policy.

 

Africa’s strategic value to the United States is rising. Geopolitics, vast amounts of raw minerals, economic growth, and untapped energy resources are placing the continent on the international stage – and for the United States.

 

In Dr. Busby’s presentation, he discussed how climate change is affecting security in Africa, using layered maps that CCAPS researchers have developed. With fragile states being overburdened with threats to their climates, the destabilization of governments and region occur. Busby’s presentation focused on how those impacts could affect the strategic outlook for the U.S. in Africa.

 

CCAPS research takes into account a variety of factors: population density, governance, locations of raw materials, climate vulnerability, and others to layer them into a Composite Vulnerability map of Africa. This information provides a better understanding as to why certain countries are more stable than others and in doing so, gives the United States a better idea of which areas to focus on.

 

Busby was very clear that there is an important link between climate effects and security in Africa, but he also was clear that we shouldn’t overstate the relationship. Simply put: it is complicated.

 

You can listen to the event and see the powerpoint presentation below.

 

For more information on Security and Climate Change, follow the links below.

The Global Security Defense Index on Climate Change: Preliminary Results

Climate Security Report

The American Security Project (ASP) hosted an event titled “Egypt: Past, Present, and the Future.” The featured speaker at the event was Dr. Mona Makram-Ebeid, a former Member of the Egyptian Senate.

Egypt has been at the forefront of many discussions over the last few years as it has seen popular upheaval against perceived injustices. Protestors took to the streets and toppled a leader to usher in an era of democracy. However, the power vacuum after Mubarak left office left the country scrambling. The parliament was dissolved, new elections were held making Muhammad Mursi and the Muslim Brotherhood big winners.

The hopes of a secular and democratic Egypt began to fade with the election which prompted another protest against Morsi. This time, Morsi was ousted with the help of the military and Adly Mansour is made the interim President. There is still hope that the government adopts a Constitution that gives more power to the people and protects minority rights of those in Egypt.

At the event, Dr. Makram-Ebeid spoke about the prospects of democracy in Egypt, and what the current struggles mean for democracy in the country.  She highlights the need for politics to dispense of radical ideologies and accept a modern, egalitarian stance toward running the country. This would best achieve democracy and protect the Christian minorities that are being targeted by political groups, including the Muslim Brotherhood.

She also touched upon the subject of terrorism in the Sinai Peninsula, the military and strategic relationship between Egypt and the United States, and women in politics.

You can watch and listen to the event below:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ASP Board Member, former New Jersey Governor, and former EPA Administrator Christine Todd Whitman spoke at the American Security Project on Tuesday, November 20 on the topic of nuclear power.  Whitman argued that the United States needs a reliable, safe, affordable, and clean source of energy.  She explained that natural gas prices are volatile, oil and coal are too dirty for the environment, and renewable energy cannot be relied upon.  She said that when the wind is not blowing and the sun is not shining, the country would still need a reliable base load power source.

Nuclear energy, while no silver bullet, can help the US meet its energy needs and serve as a reliable base load power source. 

Whitman argued that the opposition to nuclear energy is not convincing.  New training procedures and safety measures passed by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) address and mitigate the issues that caused the incidents at Three Mile Island and Fukushima.  Whitman also addressed the issue of nuclear waste.  Whitman acknowledged this was one of the major problems holding back nuclear power.  However, Whitman has not given up on storing nuclear waste in Yucca Mountain.  She also stated that nuclear waste can be reduced in volume.  Nuclear waste rods are 95%-97% full of fissionable material.  The French reprocess their nuclear waste, allowing them to r  She also made an economic argument, saying it takes 1500-3500 people to build a nuclear power plant.  Nuclear power plants also employ 300-500 people of various skill levels full time.  Local communities earn around $470 million per year from a nuclear reactor.

ASP Senior Fellow on Energy and the Climate Andrew Holland asked Whitman about the future of nuclear energy given that several US nuclear power plants are going offline soon; meaning that the US will not have the 104 nuclear power plants it has today.  Whitman responded that 4 new reactors are being built in South Carolina and Georgia that are using new technology and reactors.  The experience with these new reactors has allowed the NRC to become more knowledgeable and comfortable with emerging designs.   This experience will allow the NRC to process new permit requests more quickly.  Holland also asked about the possibility of subsidizing nuclear energy.  Whitman answered that all forms of energy are subsidized in some form by the government, but what the government needed to do is provide lenders some certainty.  Starting a new nuclear reactor requires borrowing money, but people will only lend if they believe the government will continue to back the project and not change its policies toward nuclear energy.

Ultimately, Whitman concluded that the country needed Congress to pass a national energy plan that laid out the future for the country’s infrastructure and energy.

Click below to listen to the event:

 

 

Check out the photos on Flickr:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

By Joshua Kyle Miller

Today, the American Security Project hosted a conversation on the recent round of P5+1 talks with Barbara Slavin, a correspondent for Al-monitor and a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, and Laura Rozen, a correspondent for Al-monitor’s Back Channel.

Barbara Slavin started the discussion with a brief opening on the background of the P5+1, setting the context of the talks and the events that have led to the negotiations. She highlighted that both sides, the P5+1 and Iran, have “tremendous incentives” to conduct negotiations. There has not been an opportunity like it, since both sides “had always been out of sync” with one another.  Specifically referring to the leadership of Iran and the United States, Slavin stressed the missed opportunity for negotiations between President Khatami and President George W. Bush. ”When one side was ready to negotiate, the other was not and vice versa,” she said.

Slavin went on to say, however, that Khatami lacked a crucial dynamic that the current Iranian President, Hassan Rouhani, wields – a close and considerably supportive relationship with the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei. Moreover, Rouhani possesses significant credentials that buttress his ability to negotiate with the U.S. – being a member of Iran’s Assembly of Experts, a member of the Expediency Council, and a member of the Supreme National Security Council to name a few. For these reasons, Slavin said she was “really optimistic” about the feasibility of these negotiations, despite their inherent and expected difficulties.

The conversation moved to Laura Rozen, who just came back from the talks in Geneva and gave a personal recap of the second round of the P5+1 talks. She highlighted the progression of the talks and the context that led up to disagreement. She noted that “both sides had thought the preliminary draft had been tacitly agreed upon,” until France raised some objections; specifically, France had reservations with the heavy-water reactor at Arak and Iran’s “inherent” right to enrichment.

Beyond France’s objections, what struck Rozen the most was the fact France’s Foreign Minister, Laurent Fabius, broke protocol of the negotiations by announcing to the press that no agreement had been made and that they would meet again on November 20th. This violated a rule previously agreed upon that no details would be disclosed until the conclusion of the talks, and inhibited the European Union Foreign High Representative for Foreign Policy, Catherine Ashton and the Foreign Minister of Iran, Mohammad Javad Zarif, from giving a joint statement to the press.

Despite the disagreement, talks are still in progress and the countries are to convene again in the near future on November 20th. Slavin noted that President Rouhani’s “100th day of his administration is on November 26th,” and that he has “placed all his eggs in one basket”, by sidelining significant items on his domestic agenda because he wants a deal. To buttress Iran’s eagerness for a deal, Slavin highlighted Tehran’s recent action beyond its commitment to the Safeguard Agreement by accepting IAEA’s demand to inspect the Arak facility.

What both panelists seem to agree upon as the biggest obstacle to the talks was not the obvious assumption of mending the intractability between the P5+1 and Iran or coaxing France, but keeping Congress at bay. In the near future, Congress will be putting the Defense Authorization Act in front of the President which will appropriate funds to the defense sector; however, there have been suggestions indicating that a sanctions addendum may be placed into the bill as well – exacerbating the tense situation and quashing the progress of negotiations. At this critical juncture,

I went up to the Hill earlier today to see a hearing in the Energy Subcommittee of the House Science Committee. The point of the hearing was to hear testimony regarding the Department of Energy’s Science mission. The Committee is currently considering reauthorization of the America COMPETES Act, a 2007 law that sought to re-invest in America’s long-term competitiveness. This bipartisan bill was passed in response to a 2005 report of the National Academies called “Rising Above the Gathering Storm,” a report chaired by ASP Board Member Norm Augustine. Then, as now, there was a fear that America was falling behind because we were failing to invest in basic Research and Development.

The legislation was passed in an effort to respond to that challenge. I would contend that this legislation never had the full effect that was intended to have because it never was fully funded.

Today’s hearing featured Dr. Pat Dehmer, the Acting Director of the Office of Science in the Department of Energy, Dr. Horst Simon, the Deputy Director of Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, and Dr. John Hemminger, the Chairman of the Basic Energy Sciences Advisory Committee, Department of Energy.

Characteristically, the hearing featured discussion from each member about the work done in their district. That means that it featured testimony about California Universities and labs like Sandia and Lawrence Berkeley. Together, the witnesses implored the subcommittee members to maintain predictability and sustained levels of funding in order to attract top students into these fields in order to maintain an atmosphere of innovation that will keep America competitive.

Some specific examples included the strides being made in supercomputing. Scientists are working hard to develop exoscale computing which has the potential to engage in predictive design, a breakthrough that could help scientists with the development of new biofuels or carbon storage technologies. They discussed the role of tech transfers: how and when new technologies or research could be rolled out to the market so that new industries and jobs can be created. The witnesses maintained that such tech transfers will happen gradually so long as there is sustained commitment to their projects.

However, I thought the hearing was an opportunity missed, because it failed to do oversight of the fusion energy sciences program, a key part of the Department of Energy’s Office of Science. I am worried that fusion – which could supply limitless amounts of clean, safe, sustainable energy – was overlooked. Unlike other basic science research, fusion is leading to an energy outcome: it will (eventually) lead to a source of energy. With political will and sustained funding, we know that fusion is poised for a breakthough – but I am not convinced that Members of Congress know how important fusion will be. ASP’s 10 year plan to energy security shows the path forward. We have our work to do.

If you’re interested, you can watch the archived version of the hearing here.

 

’s military security.  The consistent theme in all three topics was Russia.  Mr. Bondarchuk wants Ukraine to have a referendum vote to join the EU, which would “make impossible any aspiration from the imperial Russian side to challenge Ukraine’s destiny.”

On the issue of military security, Mr. Bondarchuk perceived a threat from a Russian Black Sea fleet in Ukrainian territory, and called for it to leave by 2017.  The greatest source of his concern about Russia stems from the perception that Ukraine is beholden to Gazprom, and hence Russia, for its energy security.

Currently, Ukraine is heavily dependent upon Gazprom, the Russian gas company, for most of its natural gas supply.  He claims this dependence has created large problems for Ukraine.  Gazprom cut off its supply of gas to Europe and Ukraine during the winters of 2006 and 2009.  This year, as a part of the ongoing dispute, Gazprom charged the Ukrainian energy company Naftogaz $7 billion for importing less gas than contracted, a bill Naftogaz has refused to pay.  Bondarchuck called for Ukraine to wean off its dependence on Russia by importing gas from other sources and exploring its own domestic energy sources.  He claims that Ukraine may have the world’s third largest shale gas reserves. Whether it does or not will take years and a great deal of investment to determine.

You can watch and listen to the discussion below:

Bangladesh at Crossroads

A Political and Security Outlook Conference:

Session Four- Bangladesh and its Relationship with the Neighborhood

Session four focused on the impact of various environmental and security issues for Bangladesh and the broader region.

This included:

* Regional political environment and security implications

* Impact of Climate Change on the region

* Regional cooperation and SAARC

* China’s relationship with South Asia with a special emphasis on Bangladesh

* An outlook on Indo-Bangladesh relations

Click below to listen

 

Moderator: Andrew Holland

Panel:

Mahfuz Ullah

Nilanthi Samaranayake

Dr. Elizabeth Ferris

 Biographies of all the conference speakers can be found here

 

Bangladesh at Crossroads

A Political and Security Outlook Conference:

Session Three- Bangladesh’s Economy: Prospects and Challenges

Session Three included a discussion on the growth of Bangladesh’s economy as it opens up to the world and its bilateral and multilateral trade partners.

This included:

* Is Bangladesh an emerging economic power?

* An update on Bangladesh’s readymade garments sector

* Is the country meeting international labour standards and obligations?

* US-Bangladesh bilateral trade relationship, TICFA, GSP etc.

Click below to listen:

Moderator: BGen Stephen A Cheney USMC (Ret.)

Panel:

Ehsan Taqbeem

Aminur Rahman

Shamarukh Mohiuddin

Dr. Manjurul Karim

 Biographies of all the conference speakers can be found here