ANC After The Fact

Four months from now, candidates will start filing their certificates to join next year’s elections. 

This early, we’re seeing some interesting political posturing and realignment of forces.

Of course, much of these developments will depend on who’ll be running for president.

Or, to be more exact, who, politicians think would be likely to succeed President Rodrigo Duterte. 

His daughter, by the way, is said to be gunning for the presidency — regardless of whether people actually care about political dynastiesreaching the very top of our fractured political and electoral system.

In the meantime, opposition forces are also preparing under a unified ticket being formed by the new 1Sambayan coalition.

But amid all this political noise—what actually are the issues that should define the upcoming election campaign?

Christian Esguerra sits down with political analyst Ramon Casiple and potential candidate and human rights lawyer Chel Diokno to break down the issues that should define the 2022 election campaign.

The Office of the Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court has requested authority to conduct a formal investigation into the thousands of killings under President Rodrigo Duterte’s drug war. 

Malacañang predictably downplayed, if not dismissed, this development asserting “sovereignty and independence from foreign interference.”

But the process at the ICC is expected to proceed anyway regardless of whether Duterte and other officials instrumental to the conduct of his vicious drug war will cooperate or not. 

Perhaps the question is — will a refusal to cooperate only work against Duterte’s interest?

Besides, was it not also this administration that argued early during the drug war that if you’re a drug addict or drug trafficker what was there to be afraid of?

Years later, the ICC Prosecutor found reasonable basis to believe that the crime against humanity of murder was committed in the Philippines since Duterte took office in 2016 and until March 16, 2019  when his administration unilaterally  withdrew the country from the ICC.

So, the question is asked — if Duterte and his top lieutenants are not guilty of such crime what is there to be proud of?

In this episode, Christian Esguerra sits down with Sec. Salvador Panelo, President Rodrigo Duterte's Chief Legal Counsel and Atty. Neri Colmenares, lawyer for families of victims of Duterte's drug war.

They discussed how and why his administration reached this point at the ICC and whether victims of all the rampant killings under Duterte can finally get justice not from the local courts but from the one in The Hague.

They say that if you’re not happy with how this country is being run, then go out and vote in 2022. 

Pick the candidate who’ll bring about the change you want, not the politician who’ll give you more of the same. 

For instance, if you think the current government has been incompetent in handling the pandemic, then pick the competent ones on the ballot. 

If you’re passionate about human rights, then go for candidates who truly respect human lives. make no room for human rights violators and those who condone senseless killings.

The choices may be easy — but not really because as they say, politics is perception. 

Somewhere in between voters and candidates is a vast space where political strategists and media operators work their magic during election campaigns. 

It doesn’t matter if a candidate sucks— what’s important is he and his handlers can convince people to vote for him, mainly through well-funded self-marketing and media packaging.

This is where disinformation thrives — as we saw in 2016 and again during the midterm elections in 2019 candidates investing huge money on social media campaigns. 

This is where much of the battle is waged the digital space where troll farms, for instance, flourish regardless of one’s side in the political arena.

In this episode, Christian Esguerra talks to campaign strategist Alan German and disinformation researcher Prof. Jonathan Ong about how big and more vicious the problem with disinformation has become and what we all need to do to make sure these agents of disinformation won’t control the campaign narrative and influence our decisions come election day.

Over the weekend, the 1Sambayan coalition announced its nominees for the opposition’s presidential candidate in next year’s election. 

But except for former Senator Antonio Trillanes IV, who clearly welcomed the nomination, the rest expressed reluctance if not outright lack of interest. 

Is 1Sambayan off to a shaky start? Because how can you unify the opposition when you can’t even get people to consider running for president at least under your banner?

Not only that. This early, the warning signs are clear — if 1Sambayan members hope to successfully counter Duterte’s populist narrative they have to descend from their moral high horse and try to relate better with the people.  

How to do that is perhaps the biggest challenge confronting the opposition in 2022 — an election they cannot afford to lose especially by default.

For the opposition, the issues are clear — the next president should put a stop to all the senseless killings under Duterte’s drug war and put the economy back on track the gut issues. 

Last Monday, the outgoing prosecutor of the International Criminal Court announced she was seeking a formal investigation into the thousands of killings under Duterte. 

It’s a welcome development, a much-awaited one for those looking to hold Duterte accountable once and for all.

Because in a civilized world, one cannot just order cops to kill people even drug users without due process — and get away with it.

This should clearly be a campaign issue. But whether this will be a significant factor when Filipinos pick their next president remains to be seen.

Thus, yet another challenge for anti-Duterte forces. 

This episode discusses what it will take for the opposition to finally come together and rally behind a single presidential candidate in next year’s elections.

Christian Esguerra talks to 1Sambayan Convenor Bro. Armin Luistro and Political Analyst Edna Co.

Kieth Absalon was biking with relatives in the morning of June 6 when an explosive device suddenly went off along the trail in Masbate City.

The 21-year-old Kieth, a promising football player who played with the Far Eastern University in Manila, was killed along with his uncle Nolven, a union leader.

His 16-year-old cousin was also wounded in the attack.

The culprit — the New People’S Army, which blamed the incident on “errors in military action” by its unit in the area. 

The NPA, the armed wing of the Communist Party of the Philippines, sought forgiveness and promised to “extend any appropriate form of indemnification.”

People understandably want justice. But how to get it under the circumstances may not be easy.

Left-wing organizations “condemned” the attack but insisted the NPA need not surrender the culprits to authorities.

There’s a separate mechanism for that under the Comprehensive Agreement on Human Rights and International Humanitarian Law or CAHRIHL. 

But how do you activate the joint monitoring committee when formal peace negotiations have been terminated?

Progressive groups are also under fire for allegedly being “selective” in condemning the NPA’s atrocities. 

In this episode, Christian Esguerra sits down with NTF-ELCAC Spokesman and Department of Interior and Local Government Undersecretary Jonathan Malaya and Former Bayan Muna Representative Teddy Casiño.

It was hailed as a victory for the planet  - a Dutch court ordering oil giant Royal Dutch Shell to cut carbon emissions by net 45 percent by 2030 based on 2019 levels.

Climate activists hope this would now set a precedent to hold other big oil companies — the so-called big polluters or carbon majors — accountable for seriously damaging the environment. 

Here in the Philippines, the Commission on Human Rights initiated a landmark inquiry three years ago into how these multinational companies were allegedly violating human rights by contributing heavily to carbon emissions.

The Philippines, of course, served as an unfortunate illustration of the devastating impact of climate change. 

Remember “Yolanda”, a category 5 typhoon that killed more than 6,000 people displaced 4.1 million others across 44 provinces. the estimated cost of damage — 5.8 billion dollars. 

To be fair, oil companies have been rolling out programs toward clean energy.

But given the scale of the problem, much of these initiatives may still be considered inadequate if not tokenism. 

In this episode, Christian Esguerra talks to Greenpeace Southeast Asia's Yeb Saño and Manila Observatory's Atty. Tony La Viña to go back to the Dutch court’s ruling and how exactly it could benefit the struggle for climate justice in the Philippines and elsewhere in the world.

Early during the pandemic, President Rodrigo Duterte banned Filipino health care workers from leaving for work abroad. The reason was seen as logical as it was patriotic — why deploy nurses, for instance, abroad when the Philippines we are also battling a raging pandemic?

But the issue, it turned out, was much more complicated. yes, our health care system needed all the help it could. But how exactly did the initial deployment ban help our local pandemic response? It did it only provide unnecessary restrictions on our health care workers who wanted to leave because of limited opportunities here?

In this episode, Christian Esguerra talks to Filipino Nurse United President Maristela Abenojar and Philippine Overseas Employment Administrator Bernard Olalia to look into the plight of Filipino nurses and how the changing government policy on deployment has been affecting them  during the pandemic.

The Philippine Congress has yet to decide whether to extend the transition government in the new Bangsamoro Autonomous Region In Muslim Mindanao or BARMM.

It’s such a sensitive issue because it would mean postponing the new region’s first-ever elections scheduled in may next year. 

The Moro Islamic Liberation Front — which heads the Bangsamoro Transition Authority or BTA wants to move the elections to 2025 to give it more time to finish the work as promised or committed in its peace agreement with the government.

Others say elections should proceed precisely to give the MILF a fresh mandate from the people and not just enjoy the benefits of presidential appointment.

Last year, Interim Chief Minister Murad Ebrahim himself acknowledged the possibility of election defeat saying the group didn’t have much to show yet given the limited transition period.

This is just one problem, though.

In this episode, Christian Esguerra looks deep into the complicated challenges confronting the new Bangsamoro region particularly the plight of Non-Moro Indigenous Peoples.

Where do they fit in this political entity? Are they victims of false promises made during the peace talks?

Remember that a number of them have been harassed and killed over issues of ancestral domain and land-grabbing.

Timuay Justice and Governance Supreme Tribal Chief Leticio Datuwata and BARMM Interior and Local Government Minister Atty. Naguib Sinarimbo join the discussion.

Because of the raging pandemic, perhaps you would think: those positioning for the 2022 elections might slow down a bit and perhaps try to play more by the rules. 

Well, it’s apparently not the case for the upcoming elections. You still have prospective candidates campaigning early through posters and paid broadcast ads.

Of course, they can always argue — what’s wrong with that? This is a free country!

But you and I know that they’re obviously campaigning introducing themselves to voters at the very least — all because they can and they have the money.

This issue, though, is minimal compared to other much more serious problems that will confront all of us during the campaign.

Remember the troll farms that made a killing in the 2016 elections?

Experts say they only got bigger their operations more seamless sophisticated and vicious. 

Industry insiders say a social media strategy — including troll farms — is now a staple in any election campaign. 

So even if candidates don’t want, in good conscience, to hire their services they may have no other choice.

In 2019, the Commission on Elections tried to monitor campaign expenses online for good reason. But what exactly did it achieve and what lessons can be learned from that moving forward?

In this episode, Christian Esguerra talks to COMELEC's James Jimenez and Election Lawyer George Garcia about the upcoming campaign under conditions made even more complicated by the COVID-19 pandemic. 

Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte’s daughter running for president. Her vice president, a former defense secretary identified with former president Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo. This Sara Duterte-Gilbert Teodoro tandem, of course, was teaser by another former Arroyo administration official, former Budget Secretary and Congressman Rolando Andaya. So, what should we make out of this separate push to “convince” President Duterte himself to run for vice president? 

Well, there’s no tandem voting in the Philippines so if he, indeed, decides to run in 2022 and wins we might end up ultimately, with a Duterte-Duterte leadership in Malacañang. But while Sara Duterte’S possible presidential run may be welcome to her supporters, it also raises eyebrows --we know that political dynasties abound in the country — but who would have thought that one family, who has established its own dynasty in Davao City, would expand it to the very top of Philippine politics?

In this episode Christian Esguerra sits down with former lawmakers Antonio Trillanes IV and Rolando Andaya Jr.