We hear a lot about global warming that is not true. Believing all the negative, it is difficult to be receptive to all the good things happening because of global warming:
Fifty different climate models can accurately predict the future. However, 40% are too sensitive, too responsive, and must be thrown out from being obviously wrong. Like weather predictions, they are okay if you don't go far into the future. Breaking them into smaller grids, the models so far get worse and overly sensitive. So, models are handpicked and used to predict doom and gloom. If error bands are added to the predictions it is obvious that more than a few years into the future, the error bands are so large that the models are as worthless as a weather forecast is for next month.
We are told there are more hurricanes, and they are getting worse. However, this is no long-term trend, no data to support this.
We are told there are record-breaking floods and more of them. However, there is no data to show this is a long-term trend of more and worse floods.
Food production is being jeopardized. Food production, however, is at an all-time high. On average, food production across the globe is going up.
July 2023, NYC, AZ experience their hottest months on record. So is this proof that global warming is true? Spike in the temperature occurs about every four or five years, but there is no evidence yet that there is any change in the long-term trend. Spikes occur every 4 to 5 years because predictable changes in the earth's orbit and tilt toward the sun.
Climate change is a trend that occurs over a period of multiple decades. It is average data over a time period of a decade or longer. We can protect our fears when we see a spike in the data that it portends a trend. We have to wait for the data and use the historical data to back our judgments. Models try to predict the future, but in the area of weather and climate change, they are not yet reliable or powerful enough.
For example, with the recent records in Az, we need many more data points to conclude anything. El Nino is probably a big driver in the observed temperature spike. Higher CO2 did not cause the spike in isolation and may not have been a major contributor.
An example of a True Story that is not being told:
Since 1979 the temperature has increased about 0.13 deg C per decade. About the same is predicted for the future going forward. What happened during those 40 years:
Population during that time increased by a factor of 5.
Life expectancy went from 32 to 73 years.
GPD increased 7x. (We definitely need some work on distributing the wealth.)
The World literacy increased by 4x.
There was a 50X decrease in deaths by weather events And yet, we have been made to feel unsafe. We have dramatically decreased bringing new life into the world in the Western World.
We have discounted the possibility that we will be able to continue to adapt as we always have in the past. We are being fed a diet of doom, gloom, and fear. We no longer believe we are amazing in adapting to our environment. We no longer believe in using the most powerful tool in our arsenal to solve our problems: the marketplace.
