ANGLES.

A clearly exasperated Trump put out a series of unhinged expletive-ridden social media posts over the weekend threatening the destruction of civilian infrastructure in Iran starting on Tuesday evening which pushed oil prices deeper into triple digits, but there was very little in terms of credible clarity for traders to chew on at the weekend.

A week including some key economic data and the start of Q1 2026 earnings season kicked off quietly on a low-volume Monday session with a temporary pause in the headline roulette and stocks tentatively built on the previous week’s gains in a state of confused optimism ahead of potentially violent two-way volatility from either a brutal US/Israel onslaught or another TACO Tuesday.

In fact, Israel seemingly couldn’t wait to start hitting civilian targets in Iran and jumped the gun on Tuesday morning which pushed up energy prices. Trump, who appears to be treating this whole situation like some tawdry New York real estate transaction characterized by shameless brinkmanship and nasty threats, posted that “a whole civilization will die tonight”.

A sense of unease settled on Wall Street. Stock prices sank and interest rates drifted higher as the deadline grew closer. However, there was a late-session recovery on the back of rumors of some kind of diplomatic breakthrough brokered by Pakistan and the indexes closed unchanged on the day.

After the close, Trump capitulated, announcing a two-week suspension of all strikes on Iran, improbably claiming that the US had “already met and exceeded all military objectives”. In return, Iran agreed to conditionally re-open the Strait of Hormuz for the two-week period (but still charging crypto tolls to any traffic) and bilateral talks were set for the weekend in Pakistan.

As both sides desperately tried to spin the narrative as a win including undisguised victory laps with “mission accomplished” rhetoric from both Trump and Hegseth, traders scrambled frantically to re-price risk assets in the wake of the announcement. Oil prices crashed by the most since early COVID, interest rates tumbled and stock markets around the world absolutely skyrocketed in Asia and Europe for their biggest one-day gains in years.

When Wall Street opened on Wednesday, its comeback was a little less spectacular, but it was still a very strong day for the stock indexes. While it was unclear how long it would last, traders treated themselves to at least a day of euphoric relief. Some Q1 earnings began to trickle in and were mostly positive ahead of the banks kicking off the season in earnest this week.

After Wednesday’s massive dopamine hit, the jubilation subsided across global markets on Thursday with accusations already flying that terms were being violated and the Strait of Hormuz still basically closed.

Oil prices and interest rates bounced back higher overnight and international stocks fell. The latest PCE numbers and the most recent Q1 GDP estimate were published ahead of the US opening bell, showing sticky inflation, consumer spending stalling and a declining rate of economic growth. However, reports that Israel and Lebanon were planning direct ceasefire talks helped to reverse early losses on Wall Street and the indexes closed with light gains.

The late rebound followed through into Asian and European markets on Friday. Wall Street got to see the latest CPI data which saw inflation shoot up to an annualized rate of 3.3%. The month-to-month jump was the biggest since 2022, but over three-quarters of it was down to war-related energy price increases.

Wall Street chose to look through the hopefully-transitory oil price effect and stocks made further incremental gains when markets opened as traders marginally added to bets that the Fed may still cut the Fed Funds Rate at least once this year. This was despite the fact that Americans are feeling miserable right now with the monthly measure of Consumer Sentiment collapsing to the lowest level in history.

Trader reluctance to go into yet another highly unpredictable high stakes weekend with meaningful long positions caused prices to ease back to unchanged by the close and the indexes’ best week for months came to a relatively quiet end.

Markets are quite heavily banking on the war being in the rear view mirror relatively soon with a noticeable improvement in Strait of Hormuz traffic, even if not back to pre-conflict levels for a while. Whether tolls are going to be charged and exactly to whom they will be paid doesn’t matter much to traders who feel they can probably live with $80-$90 oil for a while.

Confirmation of this scenario will likely see a continuation of last week’s solid rally but in the case that everything goes to s**t (possibly as early as this weekend), this rather asymmetric view of things means that renewed significant falls in stock prices are far from off the table if oil prices get back into the $110-$150 range or higher.

If you are not yet a financial planning or investment management client of Anglia Advisors and would like to explore becoming one, please feel free to reach out to arrange a complimentary no-obligation discovery call with me.

ARTICLE OF THE WEEK ..

Your brain is buggy software, badly infected with recency bias when it comes investing. Learn to zoom out.

.. AND I QUOTE ..

“We won’t applaud those who set the world on fire just because they turn up with a bucket.”

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez refuses to fully endorse the ceasefire.

LAST WEEK BY THE NUMBERS:

Last week’s S&P 500 market color courtesy of finviz.com

Last week’s best performing US sector: Technology (two biggest holdings: Welltower, Prologis) ⬆︎ 4.9% for the week

Last week’s worst performing US sector: Energy (two biggest holdings: Exxon-Mobil, Chevron) for the second week in a row ⬇︎ 3.9% for the week

* SPY, a US Large Cap ETF, tracks the S&P 500 index, made up of 500 stocks from a universe of the largest US companies. Its price rose 3.6% last week, is down 0.4% so far this year and ended the week 2.6% below its all-time record closing high (01/27/2026).

* IWM, a US Small Cap ETF, tracks the Russell 2000 index, made up of the bottom two-thirds in terms of company size of a universe of 3,000 of the largest US stocks. Its price rose 4.0% last week, is up 6.2% so far this year and ended the week 3.8% below its all-time record closing high (01/22/2026).

* VXUS, a Global Non-US ETF, tracks the MSCI ACWI Ex-US index, made up of over 8,500 of the largest names from a universe of stocks issued by companies from around the world excluding the United States, in both developed and emerging markets. Its price rose 4.9% last week, is up 5.7% so far this year and ended the week 3.6% below its all-time record closing high (02/25/2026).

INTEREST RATES:

* FED FUNDS RATE * ⬌ 3.625% (unchanged from a week ago)

* PRIME RATE ** ⬌ 6.75% (unchanged from a week ago)

* 3 MONTH TREASURY ⬇︎ 3.69% (3.70% a week ago)

* 2 YEAR TREASURY ⬆︎ 3.81% (3.79% a week ago)

* 5 YEAR TREASURY ⬌ 3.94% (3.94% a week ago)

* 10 YEAR TREASURY *** ⬌ 4.31% (4.31% a week ago)

* 20 YEAR TREASURY ⬆︎ 4.89% (4.88% a week ago)

* 30 YEAR TREASURY ⬆︎ 4.91% (4.88% a week ago)

Data courtesy of the Federal Reserve and the Department of the Treasury as of the market close on Friday

* Decided upon by the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee at periodic meetings 8x a year. Used as a basis for overnight interbank loans and for determining high yield savings interest rates.

** Wall Street Journal Prime Rate as of Friday’s close. Tending to move in lockstep with the Fed Funds Rate, this measure is used as a basis for determining certain consumer loan interest rates such as credit cards, auto loans, personal loans, home equity loans/lines of credit and securities-based lending.

*** Used as a basis for determining mortgage interest rates.

AVERAGE 30-YEAR FIXED MORTGAGE RATE:

* ⬇︎ 6.37%

One week ago: 6.46%, one month ago: 6.07%, one year ago: 6.62%

Data courtesy of the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey

INTEREST RATE EXPECTATIONS:

Where will the Fed Funds i…

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit simonbrady.substack.com

Reports predicting an imminent US ground invasion of Iran intensified over the weekend, triggering an apocalyptic response from the Iranians. The Houthis in Yemen joined the ever-expanding conflict, likely at the behest of Iran, complicating the increasingly chaotic picture further.

Trump ramped up his attempts to gaslight markets with a flurry of detail-free promises of an imminent deal one minute then wild threats of hellfire the next but, given a complete lack of anything credible to digest, Wall Street just isn’t listening any more.

For most of Monday US stocks did a whole lot of nothing with traders unsure as to what posture to take in a vacuum and no trustworthy information coming from any of the conflict participants. But the indexes swooned late in the session to finish in the red again with the S&P 500 creeping closer and closer to official correction territory.

A very rough month and quarter (see my Q1 Market Review here) came to an end at long last on Tuesday with the oil price at a four-year high following its biggest monthly jump in history and US gas prices at the pump averaging above $4/gallon for the first time since mid-2022 and rising, with some places in California seeing closer to $7.

However, the indexes roared higher for their best one-day session in close to a year which was put down to dip buyers and bargain hunters finally showing up on the back of Iran signaling possible co-operation in ceasefire talks and end-of-quarter window dressing which can often create some distortions on the final day.

Trump’s incoherent, jumbled flip-flopping continued after the close. He pledged to bomb Iran “back into the Stone Ages”, end the war in two weeks’ time and touted peace negotiations, all in literally the same sentence. He then promised to grace us all with even more of this kind of insight in a primetime address to the nation the following day.

Q2 kicked off on Wednesday and stocks followed through strongly on Tuesday’s monster rally following spectacular gains in Asia and Europe with a perception that it may be dawning on Trump that the current status of the war is untenable with his approval ratings in the toilet and the midterms coming up in a few months.

The president’s “very important” twenty-minute address was anything but. It was no more than a rambling, self-serving verbal summary of his recent social media posts and gave traders nothing new to work with.

Hard to believe, but Thursday was the one year anniversary of so-called “Liberation Day” and the subsequent market disruption caused by the tariff strategy, but attention is very much focused elsewhere at the moment. Asian and European markets fell back after the letdown of Trump’s disappointing update and Iran’s “bring it on, motherf*****” -style response offered no peace.

Wall Street initially followed the lead of overseas markets with the indexes giving back some of Wednesday’s gains as energy prices rocketed higher again on the prospect of at least two or three more weeks of escalating bombardment in the region and Trump’s bizarre reference to some kind of magical “natural” self-opening of the Strait of Hormuz. A late mini-surge dragged stock prices back to basically flat for the session and pushed interest rates lower ahead of the long weekend.

A Jobs Report released on a Friday when the stock market was closed meant that we aren’t going to get to see any equity market reaction until Monday and that reaction could easily be swamped by geopolitical developments over the weekend.

It was a very solid report with new job creation above even the highest estimates and a fall in the unemployment rate to 4.3%, although downward revisions to prior data took off some of the shine.

Some other things I’m thinking about ..

* Going into a trading blackout with a high level of unknowable risk is an unsettling thought for Wall Street traders. This is leading to a relatively predictable pattern of end-of-week selling as relative optimism is typically replaced by risk aversion as the week goes on. Since the Iran war began, the S&P 500 has actually posted cumulative gains over the first three days of the week but has fallen 9% on Thursdays/Fridays. The rationale is simple; a lot can happen in the war during a two-day untradeable period, especially given Trump’s habit of deliberately announcing disruptive policies when US financial markets are closed.

* After Trump’s nothing-burger address on Thursday provided no clues, traders have begun to scan the calendar for indications of when this war might end. The only event that really jumps out is the mid-May meeting between Trump and Chinese premier Xi. That’s still a long way off.

* Nevertheless, after the best weekly gain of the year for stock markets, the bulls may be starting to chomp at the bit and the bears suddenly look a bit twitchy as Trump looks for an off-ramp to the unpopular war which has clearly not gone as breezily as he assumed it would. The sense is growing that this stock market may soon begin to look for excuses to head north instead of for reasons to sell.

If you are not yet a financial planning or investment management client of Anglia Advisors and would like to explore becoming one, please feel free to reach out to arrange a complimentary no-obligation discovery call with me.

ARTICLE OF THE WEEK ..

It’s a disgrace that this is being permitted. If this crap shows up in your 401k or 403b anytime soon, do NOT go anywhere near it!

.. AND I QUOTE ..

”You need nearly twice as much income today to afford the typical US home compared to before COVID.”

Nick Maggiulli, Ritholtz Wealth Management

LAST WEEK BY THE NUMBERS:

Last week’s S&P 500 market color courtesy of finviz.com

Last week’s best performing US sector: Real Estate (two biggest holdings: Welltower, Prologis) ⬆︎ 3.3% for the week

Last week’s worst performing US sector: Energy (two biggest holdings: Exxon-Mobil, Chevron) ⬇︎ 3.7% for the week

* SPY, a US Large Cap ETF, tracks the S&P 500 index, made up of 500 stocks from a universe of the largest US companies. Its price rose 1.7% last week, is down 3.8% so far this year and ended the week 6.0% below its all-time record closing high (01/27/2026).

* IWM, a US Small Cap ETF, tracks the Russell 2000 index, made up of the bottom two-thirds in terms of company size of a universe of 3,000 of the largest US stocks. Its price rose 1.6% last week, is up 2.1% so far this year and ended the week 7.5% below its all-time record closing high (01/22/2026).

* VXUS, a Global Non-US ETF, tracks the MSCI ACWI Ex-US index, made up of over 8,500 of the largest names from a universe of stocks issued by companies from around the world excluding the United States, in both developed and emerging markets. Its price rose 3.0% last week, is up 2.7% so far this year and ended the week 8.1% below its all-time record closing high (02/25/2026).

INTEREST RATES:

* FED FUNDS RATE * ⬌ 3.625% (unchanged from a week ago)

* PRIME RATE ** ⬌ 6.75% (unchanged from a week ago)

* 3 MONTH TREASURY ⬇︎ 3.70% (3.73% a week ago)

* 2 YEAR TREASURY ⬇︎ 3.79% (3.88% a week ago)

* 5 YEAR TREASURY ⬇︎ 3.94% (4.06% a week ago)

* 10 YEAR TREASURY *** ⬇︎ 4.31% (4.44% a week ago)

* 20 YEAR TREASURY ⬇︎ 4.88% (4.99% a week ago)

* 30 YEAR TREASURY ⬇︎ 4.88% (4.98% a week ago)

Data courtesy of the Federal Reserve and the Department of the Treasury as of the market close on Friday

* Decided upon by the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee at periodic meetings 8x a year. Used as a basis for overnight interbank loans and for determining high yield savings interest rates.

** Wall Street Journal Prime Rate as of Friday’s close. Tending to move in lockstep with the Fed Funds Rate, this measure is used as a basis for determining certain consumer loan interest rates such as credit cards, auto loans, personal loans, home equity loans/lines of credit and securities-based lending.

*** Used as a basis for determining mortgage interest rates.

AVERAGE 30-YEAR FIXED MORTGAGE RATE:

* ⬆︎ 6.46%

One week ago: 6.38%, one month ago: 5.99%, one year ago: 6.64%

D…

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit simonbrady.substack.com

Over the weekend Trump threatened to massively raise the stakes by bombing Iranian energy plants if the Strait of Hormuz (which had been closed for 24 days and counting) wasn’t open by Monday night, alarming Asian markets and US stock and bond futures. Just three hours before markets opened in the US on Monday, however, he posted that there were direct negotiations going on between an unidentified “top person” in Iran and the US that had been productive and he was postponing such attacks by five days since Iran “is begging to make a deal”.

News that any peace talks were happening at all was a surprise not only to Wall Street but also apparently to the Iranians, who quickly denied any such dialogue or an inclination to end the conflict.

A confused and increasingly war-weary stock market is clearly not enjoying having its chain yanked by a small number of social media accounts that increasingly feel like they are trying to manipulate asset prices via tactical releases of not always entirely accurate information.

Nevertheless, traders still backed off some of their more pessimistic bets and the stock indexes whip-sawed higher with a wild 3%+ swing in the S&P 500 from the pre-open lows to late-morning highs and closed deep in the green, although well off session highs, as oil prices, interest rates and gold all dropped meaningfully lower.

Monday’s cautious optimism failed to extend into Tuesday’s session with no let up in missile strikes in the region and the brief sharp decline in oil prices and interest rates came to a swift halt. The stock indexes meandered around aimlessly trying and failing to read mixed and sometimes contradictory war signals, eventually closing a touch lower.

Oil prices drifted lower overnight and continued to set the tone for stocks which jumped higher again on Wednesday morning, as some traders began positioning for possible conflict resolution with both sides apparently floating (vastly different) proposals.

Stocks have had a tendency of late to recover quickly and violently from geopolitical shocks and getting caught on the wrong side of such a move by acting on excess pessimism has proven to be painful in many cases. It was this notion that kept prices higher through the close.

However, ceasefire hopes began to fade on Thursday as each side laughed off the other’s proposal and anchored to their extremes. Oil prices and interest rates resumed their climb and stocks sank again as the reward vs. risk calculation of putting on additional long positions ahead of what could be a volatile weekend started to deteriorate.

Trump’s increasingly unconvincing attempts to paint a rosy picture at a cabinet meeting failed dismally to impress Wall Street and in response the stock indexes plunged further to levels not seen since September last year (albeit on relatively light volume), with the tech-heavy NASDAQ leading the nosedive and falling into official correction territory, to complete what was a truly horrible session for stocks.

After the closing bell, Trump delivered yet another of his now-famous TACO moments (they do always seem to occur right after a bad day in the stock market), extending his energy attack deadline by ten days. This did nothing to stem the bleeding however and the indexes (once again led by the NASDAQ) continued to crap out on Friday to close out another torrid week of losses. The five straight weeks in the red is the S&P 500’s worst streak since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in early 2022.

Some other things I’m thinking about ..

* Last week highlighted the current schizophrenic market reaction to the war; traders are afraid to be uninvested or short in case markets scream rapidly higher on some kind of resolution while they are also afraid to go risk-on as the odds increase that the fallout could be extensive and long-lasting. Which of these two positions seems to be the most reasonable changes literally from day to day, with the latter more in vogue than the former right now.

* Trump may be steadily losing control of the situation, as most observers feared he would. As the quote below from Neil Dutta suggests, there are three major players involved in this conflict: the US, Iran and Israel. While the US may be keen on a ceasefire and a victory lap for its own domestic reasons, it’s not guaranteed that i) Israel will agree or abide by a cessation of hostilities, or ii) Iran will agree or abide by it. Case in point, Israel is continuing its ruthless operation in Gaza, has now opened a new invasion front in Lebanon and is bombing Iranian energy infrastructure. Unlike with tariffs, Trump cannot just flip a light switch here.

If you are not yet a financial planning or investment management client of Anglia Advisors and would like to explore becoming one, please feel free to reach out to arrange a complimentary no-obligation discovery call with me.

ARTICLE OF THE WEEK ..

How to trade the war. Don’t.

.. AND I QUOTE ..

”You can’t TACO when you’re not the only party involved”

Neil Dutta, Head of Economic Research, Renaissance Macro Research

LAST WEEK BY THE NUMBERS:

Last week’s S&P 500 market color courtesy of finviz.com

Last week’s best performing US sector: Energy (two biggest holdings: Exxon-Mobil, Chevron) for the fourth week in a row ⬆︎ 5.5% for the week

Last week’s worst performing US sector: Communication Services (two biggest holdings: Google, Meta) ⬇︎ 4.6% for the week

* SPY, a US Large Cap ETF, tracks the S&P 500 index, made up of 500 stocks from a universe of the largest US companies. Its price fell 2.2% last week, is down 7.0% so far this year and ended the week 9.1% below its all-time record closing high (01/27/2026).

* IWM, a US Small Cap ETF, tracks the Russell 2000 index, made up of the bottom two-thirds in terms of company size of a universe of 3,000 of the largest US stocks. Its price rose 0.3% last week, is down 1.2% so far this year and ended the week 10.5% below its all-time record closing high (01/22/2026).

* VXUS, a Global Non-US ETF, tracks the MSCI ACWI Ex-US index, made up of over 8,500 of the largest names from a universe of stocks issued by companies from around the world excluding the United States, in both developed and emerging markets. Its price was unchanged last week, is down 1.0% so far this year and ended the week 11.4% below its all-time record closing high (02/25/2026).

INTEREST RATES:

* FED FUNDS RATE * ⬌ 3.625% (unchanged from a week ago)

* PRIME RATE ** ⬌ 6.75% (unchanged from a week ago)

* 3 MONTH TREASURY ⬇︎ 3.73% (3.74% a week ago)

* 2 YEAR TREASURY ⬌ 3.88% (3.88% a week ago)

* 5 YEAR TREASURY ⬆︎ 4.06% (4.01% a week ago)

* 10 YEAR TREASURY *** ⬆︎ 4.44% (4.39% a week ago)

* 20 YEAR TREASURY ⬆︎ 4.99% (4.97% a week ago)

* 30 YEAR TREASURY ⬆︎ 4.98% (4.96% a week ago)

Data courtesy of the Federal Reserve and the Department of the Treasury as of the market close on Friday

* Decided upon by the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee at periodic meetings 8x a year. Used as a basis for overnight interbank loans and for determining high yield savings interest rates.

** Wall Street Journal Prime Rate as of Friday’s close. Tending to move in lockstep with the Fed Funds Rate, this measure is used as a basis for determining certain consumer loan interest rates such as credit cards, auto loans, personal loans, home equity loans/lines of credit and securities-based lending.

*** Used as a basis for determining mortgage interest rates.

AVERAGE 30-YEAR FIXED MORTGAGE RATE:

* ⬆︎ 6.38%

One week ago: 6.22%, one month ago: 5.98%, one year ago: 6.65%

Data courtesy of the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey

INTEREST RATE EXPECTATIONS:

Where will the Fed Funds interest rate be after the next rate-setting meeting on April 29th?

* Unchanged from now .. ⬆︎ 96% probability (88% a week ago)

* 0.25% lower than now .. ⬇︎ 4% probability (12% a week ago)

With six more rate-setting meetings in 2026, what is the most commonly-expected number of remaining 0.25% Fed Funds interest rate cuts this year?

* ⬌ Zero (unchanged from a week ago)

Data courtesy of CME FedWatch Tool…

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit simonbrady.substack.com

Global energy markets braced for another week of turmoil after a weekend US attack (“for fun” according to Trump) on Iran’s vital oil export facility on Kharg Island further exacerbated supply disruption.

This kept the oil futures price above $100 to start the week continuing the downward pressure on Asian and European stocks on Monday. Wall Street was beginning to tune out Trump veering incoherently between public threats of intensified strikes, promises of a quick conclusion and victory laps followed by declarations that there was still a lot of bombing left to do.

Nevertheless, Wall Street recovered some of its recent losses to close in the green as reports trickled in that a limited number of tankers were making it through and the price of oil eased a little to straddle the $100 level.

The tentative gains in US stocks continued into Tuesday after favorable sessions in Asia and Europe with the oil price taking a breather from its madcap volatility. The international community’s response to Trump’s “invitation” to send forces to help police the Strait of Hormuz ranged from ambivalence to swift out-of-hand rejection, but in the end was pretty much a blanket “thanks but no thanks” all round.

With two moderately positive sessions under its belt, Wall Street faced Fed Day on Wednesday in a fog-of-war world with energy prices more than 30% higher than where they were when the FOMC rate-setting committee last met in January and renewed oil price jitters after overnight strikes on multiple Persian Gulf oil facilities and stepped-up rhetoric from Iran. A hotter-than-expected PPI inflation report got the day off to a rocky start.

As everyone knew it would, the committee left the Fed Funds Rate unchanged at 3.625% (with only one dissent and that was from Trump’s manservant on the committee, Stephen Miran). The mostly unchanged quarterly Dot Plots saw the majority of the 19 meeting participants pointing to just one rate cut before year-end, although several officials anticipate no reductions at all in 2026. One member even projected a rate increase by mid-2027.

In the press conference, soon-to-be-outgoing chairman Jerome Powell expressed concern at where inflation seems to be heading and finally addressed his future at the Fed. The two-day gain in stock prices was quickly wiped out and shorter term interest rates jumped higher in response.

Thursday saw European central banks in the Eurozone, UK, Switzerland and Sweden joining Japan, Canada and the US in holding interest rates unchanged. There was more escalation in the Middle East with both Israel and Iran (much to Trump’s annoyance) striking energy facilities in the region, temporarily sending oil futures hurtling back towards $120.

Stagflation fears continue to grow. There just wasn’t a lot of good news out there and the S&P 500 and NASDAQ fell back again, although they did close well off their session lows. Interest rates continued their bumpy ride, marching relentlessly upwards with the impactful 10 year Treasury rate making new highs for the year.

Hopes of some kind of positive bounce-back on Friday were dashed as reports emerged of a potentially risky proposal for a US ground troop occupation of Iranian energy facilities and Trump branded fellow NATO member-nations as “cowards” for scoffing at his idea that they should somehow get more deeply embroiled in a war cooked up by his increasingly isolated administration and Israel, a conflict that is deeply unpopular with their own parliaments and voters.

Stocks plummeted, led lower by tech names and interest rates roared higher in both Europe and the US as traders are now judging that any hopes of a swift end to this war appear to be rapidly evaporating. This was all despite the White House’s increasingly frantic but decreasingly credible messaging that everything is absolutely fine, that this will all wrap up soon, that the Strait of Hormuz “will re-open itself” and that energy prices will quickly revert to pre-war levels as if nothing had happened.

The outcome was another brutal down-week for both stocks and bonds and another vigorous up-week for interest rates and energy prices.

Some other things I’m thinking about ..

* All the major US and international stock indexes are now negative for 2026 and are all trading below their technically important 200-day moving averages.

* The NASDAQ has now dropped in nine of the past ten weeks.

* At one point on Friday afternoon, the NASDAQ, the Russell 2000 Small Cap and the MSCI International indexes all entered into technical corrections, down more than 10% from a recent high.

* Gold just had its worst week in over 40 years. So much for the popular “safe haven” theory!

* According to futures prices, the most likely expected number of Fed Funds Rate cuts this year is now zero (see INTEREST RATE EXPECTATIONS below).

* The market probability that the Fed actually increases interest rates sometime in 2026 soared from literally 0% a week ago to over 30% by Friday.

If you are not yet a financial planning or investment management client of Anglia Advisors and would like to explore becoming one, please feel free to reach out to arrange a complimentary no-obligation discovery call with me.

ARTICLE OF THE WEEK ..

Six (not-so) little lies that we tell ourselves about money.

.. AND I QUOTE ..

“Once you have something, it means nothing to you.”

Richard Nixon

LAST WEEK BY THE NUMBERS:

Last week’s S&P 500 market color courtesy of finviz.com

Last week’s best performing US sector: Energy (two biggest holdings: Exxon-Mobil, Chevron) for the third week in a row ⬆︎ 2.8% for the week

Last week’s worst performing US sector: Utilities (two biggest holdings: NextEra Energy, Southern Co.) ⬇︎ 4.9% for the week

* SPY, a US Large Cap ETF, tracks the S&P 500 index, made up of 500 stocks from a universe of the largest US companies. Its price fell 2.1% last week, is down 4.5% so far this year and ended the week 7.1% below its all-time record closing high (01/27/2026).

* IWM, a US Small Cap ETF, tracks the Russell 2000 index, made up of the bottom two-thirds in terms of company size of a universe of 3,000 of the largest US stocks. Its price fell 1.8% last week, is down 1.6% so far this year and ended the week 10.8% below its all-time record closing high (01/22/2026).

* VXUS, a Global Non-US ETF, tracks the MSCI ACWI Ex-US index, made up of over 8,500 of the largest names from a universe of stocks issued by companies from around the world excluding the United States, in both developed and emerging markets. Its price fell 2.7% last week, is down 1.0% so far this year and ended the week 9.0% below its all-time record closing high (02/25/2026).

INTEREST RATES:

* FED FUNDS RATE * ⬌ 3.625% (unchanged from a week ago)

* PRIME RATE ** ⬌ 6.75% (unchanged from a week ago)

* 3 MONTH TREASURY ⬆︎ 3.74% (3.72% a week ago)

* 2 YEAR TREASURY ⬆︎ 3.88% (3.73% a week ago)

* 5 YEAR TREASURY ⬆︎ 4.01% (3.87% a week ago)

* 10 YEAR TREASURY *** ⬆︎ 4.39% (4.28% a week ago)

* 20 YEAR TREASURY ⬆︎ 4.97% (4.89% a week ago)

* 30 YEAR TREASURY ⬆︎ 4.96% (4.90% a week ago)

Data courtesy of the Federal Reserve and the Department of the Treasury as of the market close on Friday

* Decided upon by the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee at periodic meetings 8x a year. Used as a basis for overnight interbank loans and for determining high yield savings interest rates.

** Wall Street Journal Prime Rate as of Friday’s close. Tending to move in lockstep with the Fed Funds Rate, this measure is used as a basis for determining certain consumer loan interest rates such as credit cards, auto loans, personal loans, home equity loans/lines of credit and securities-based lending.

*** Used as a basis for determining mortgage interest rates.

AVERAGE 30-YEAR FIXED MORTGAGE RATE:

* ⬆︎ 6.22%

One week ago: 6.11%, one month ago: 6.01%, one year ago: 6.67%

Data courtesy of the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey

INTEREST RATE EXPECTATIONS:

Where will the Fed Funds interest rate be after the next rate-setting meeting on April 29th?

* Unchanged from now .. ⬇︎ 8…

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit simonbrady.substack.com

The oil price blasted through $119 over the weekend with the Strait of Hormuz still closed to traffic, forcing major producers to curb production with storage facilities full to the brim. Iran signaled no let-up in its reaction to being bombed by selecting a continuity hardliner as its new leader.

Asian stocks collapsed on Monday in response with Japanese equities entering an official correction. European markets also crumbled, with stocks giving up the entirety of their once-substantial 2026 gains and local interest rates soared.

US stocks are less impacted by energy prices, but still shifted sharply lower at the open before staging a dramatic comeback after the oil price fell back under $90 on the back of Trump seemingly setting up for a quick victory lap, claiming that the conflict is “very complete”. He also asserted that the military operation is “far ahead” of its initial four- to five-week timeframe. The indexes whipsawed and surged to close the session deep in the green.

Asian and European markets mostly took Trump at his word and bounced back nicely but, with zero sign of any de-escalation on the ground and Hegseth contradicting his boss by signaling an active intensification of the conflict, Wall Street was far more skeptical of the president’s claims on Tuesday and failed to follow through on Monday’s furious late rally.

The indexes closed the session unchanged even as the oil price continued its head-spinning reversal, briefly dipping below $80 at one point after Energy Secretary Wright somehow managed to falsely claim that a tanker had been successfully escorted through the Strait.

Overnight, Oracle, whose stock price had been cut in half since September, surprised to the upside with its earnings and the International Energy Agency (IEA) proposed the largest release of reserves in history in an attempt to bring down the price of oil.

Before the open on Wednesday, the latest CPI numbers showed February inflation was unchanged as expected at a 2.4% annualized rate. The oil price failed dismally to respond as hoped to the IEA proposal, climbing back above $90.

Stocks essentially flatlined all day and interest rates moved higher in the absence of any further meaningful reliable information coming from the front lines and continued confused messaging from US government officials about the ultimate goals and likely duration of the war.

With three oil tankers ablaze in the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday after being attacked by Iran despite Trump’s empty promises of naval protection, the US administration announced that it would release some of its own Strategic Petroleum Reserve, suspended the Jones Act and bizarrely even eased oil sanctions on Iran’s close ally, Russia, in increasingly desperate attempts to rein in the unstable oil price which had by now roared back above $100 after a defiant message from Iran’s new leadership and Israel’s continued brutal pounding of Lebanon. The stock indexes took a sizable leg lower with tech and financial names having a particularly rotten session.

Friday was another miserable day for stocks as oil traders refused to be gaslit by Trump and Hegseth’s chest-thumping rah-rah war rhetoric, focusing instead on facts and data and holding the price above $100. The latest GDP estimate (+0.7%) showed even slower economic growth than had been earlier feared and we also saw the highest measure of PCE inflation (+3.1%) for over two years, sending interest rates spiraling higher and snuffing out any slight lingering hopes of a Fed Funds Rate cut this week (see INTEREST RATE EXPECTATIONS below). The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ quickly gave up early gains and sank again to end the week lower and deeper in the red for for 2026.

Some other things I’m thinking about ..

* Everything right now is tethered to energy pricing. That leash is jerking financial markets around as oil and gas prices surge, retreat and then surge again with each new headline. Market memories have begun to flood back to early 2022, when initial highly bullish sentiment was quickly derailed by an oil-price-impacting war in Ukraine and resulted in a distinctively bad year for both stocks and bonds.

* Investors are still just about pricing in a short war. That widespread assumption rests on history and political game theory; Trump’s tendency to back down whenever things get tough, gas prices at the pump spiking ahead of the midterms later this year with both the House and the Senate in play and a calculation that Iran won’t be willing to keep enduring such an air assault.

* Trading algorithms used by major institutions are trained to react to facts and data, not to random tweets and social media nonsense. Last week’s shameless episode of energy secretary and cabinet member Chris Wright deliberately lying on X (even including a fake video) about a market-moving event with the clear intent of trying to manipulate oil prices lower for political gain casts further doubt on how much Wall Street is able to trust any war-related information coming out of this administration.

I was recently interviewed about my practice by Vetta-Fi who host this weekend’s annual Exchange ETF conference in Las Vegas that I am attending. You can read the interview here.

If you are not yet a financial planning or investment management client of Anglia Advisors and would like to explore becoming one, please feel free to reach out to arrange a complimentary no-obligation discovery call with me.

ARTICLE OF THE WEEK ..

Accept uncertainty as a starting point.

.. AND I QUOTE ..

“Trump might have declared that the war was running ahead of schedule, but no-one seems to have told the Iranians.”

Chris Beauchamp, Chief Market Analyst at IG

LAST WEEK BY THE NUMBERS:

Last week’s S&P 500 market color courtesy of finviz.com

Last week’s best performing US sector: Energy (two biggest holdings: Exxon-Mobil, Chevron) for the second week in a row ⬆︎ 2.0% for the week

Last week’s worst performing US sector: Financials (two biggest holdings: Berkshire Hathaway, JP Morgan) ⬇︎ 3.3% for the week

* SPY, a US Large Cap ETF, tracks the S&P 500 index, made up of 500 stocks from a universe of the largest US companies. Its price fell 1.5% last week, is down 2.9% so far this year and ended the week 5.1% below its all-time record closing high (01/27/2026).

* IWM, a US Small Cap ETF, tracks the Russell 2000 index, made up of the bottom two-thirds in terms of company size of a universe of 3,000 of the largest US stocks. Its price fell 1.7% last week, is up 0.2% so far this year and ended the week 7.6% below its all-time record closing high (01/22/2026).

* VXUS, a Global Non-US ETF, tracks the MSCI ACWI Ex-US index, made up of over 8,500 of the largest names from a universe of stocks issued by companies from around the world excluding the United States, in both developed and emerging markets. Its price fell 1.6% last week, is up 1.7% so far this year and ended the week 9.0% below its all-time record closing high (02/25/2026).

INTEREST RATES:

* FED FUNDS RATE * ⬌ 3.625% (unchanged from a week ago)

* PRIME RATE ** ⬌ 6.75% (unchanged from a week ago)

* 3 MONTH TREASURY ⬆︎ 3.72% (3.69% a week ago)

* 2 YEAR TREASURY ⬆︎ 3.73% (3.56% a week ago)

* 5 YEAR TREASURY ⬆︎ 3.87% (3.72% a week ago)

* 10 YEAR TREASURY *** ⬆︎ 4.28% (4.15% a week ago)

* 20 YEAR TREASURY ⬆︎ 4.89% (4.74% a week ago)

* 30 YEAR TREASURY ⬆︎ 4.90% (4.77% a week ago)

Data courtesy of the Federal Reserve and the Department of the Treasury as of the market close on Friday

* Decided upon by the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee at periodic meetings 8x a year. Used as a basis for overnight interbank loans and for determining high yield savings interest rates.

** Wall Street Journal Prime Rate as of Friday’s close. Tending to move in lockstep with the Fed Funds Rate, this measure is used as a basis for determining certain consumer loan interest rates such as credit cards, auto loans, personal loans, home equity loans/lines of credit and securities-based lending.

*** Used as a basis for determining mortgage inte…

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit simonbrady.substack.com

The US and Israel teamed up to launch a large scale attack on Iran over the weekend killing many hundreds including the country’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. The entire Middle East moved onto a war footing as the Iranians retaliated by firing missiles across the region.

Energy prices naturally skyrocketed in response and stocks gapped severely lower in Asia and Europe on Monday. US markets initially followed suit at the open, but in a pretty orderly fashion with the prevailing consensus expectation of a limited conflict that will end relatively quickly with Trump eager to declare a swift victory. By mid-afternoon, the losses had been fully recovered and the stock indexes finished the session lightly higher, but the recent steep fall in interest rates came to a screeching halt and reversed course.

While Wall Street shrugged off war worries on Monday, Asian and European markets seemed far more concerned as energy prices continued to surge and local stocks and bonds were hammered again on Tuesday.

Emerging reports that America’s hand had been forced by Israel at the weekend cast some doubt on Trump’s ability to control the scale and duration of the conflict and US stocks and bonds re-joined the pity party, tumbling to finish the day deep in the red, although off their lows from earlier in the session after some bottom-fishers began to show up.

Wednesday was another frightful day for Asian markets which continued to crumble with South Korea, previously the world’s best performing stock market in 2026, getting particularly brutalized, suffering the worst one-day crash in its history and down ~20% in just two trading days.

European markets were much more upbeat and by the time Wall Street opened, the dip buyers were large and in charge, carrying the US indexes nicely higher and back to where they were before the bombings began.

Asia rebounded hard on Thursday, with South Korea erasing all of Wednesday’s horrendous losses within minutes of opening. The bargain-hunting frenzy on Wall Street evaporated, however, after reports emerged of interventionist plans for the government to take control of all AI-related export licensing and labor market data and still-soaring oil/gas prices dampened Fed Funds Rate cut hopes. US stocks dived sharply lower again and interest rates continued to march higher.

A horrifying Jobs Report on Friday showed 92k jobs lost in February, raising the unemployment rate to 4.4% and January’s Retail Sales disappointed vs. expectations. Combined with escalating war-related inflation fears, this all gave off a strong whiff of stagflation. The S&P 500 closed the day and the week in the red and all of its 2026 gains are now up in smoke with traders reluctant to go into a potentially unstable weekend with higher-risk long positions on their books.

Some other things I’m thinking about ..

* While investors should brace for short term volatility, the Middle East conflict in its current state is still not likely to be a bearish game-changer for equities. The military operation does not fundamentally change the economic backdrop for US companies, with the caveat that the Strait of Hormuz is the key variable in this whole saga since markets tend to view conflicts like this through the prism of energy prices. If traffic remains largely halted for several weeks, that will further spike the price of oil/gas and thereby pressure stocks. Absent that scenario, the medium term direction of stock markets is still going to be determined by AI sentiment, economic growth/inflation and Fed Funds Rate cut expectations.

* Five days into the Iran war, the price of gold was below where it was when the first bombs dropped on Tehran. In 2022, as inflation reached its peak of over 9%, the price of gold moved lower. With inflation well below its historical average of 3% in 2025, the price of gold rocketed. It’s high time to toss into the garbage the widespread, simplistic idea that you always need to immediately run to gold as an automatic guaranteed “safe haven” hedge as soon as geopolitics blows up or when inflation spikes. The data simply does not back up these commonly-accepted myths.

* More than $500 million had been staked on Polymarket about the timing of a US strike against Iran by the time it happened on February 28th. Six of the players who reaped combined profits in the millions by correctly anticipating the day of the attack were newly-created user accounts (including one called “magamyman”) that had never placed any other wagers on the platform before. Suspicions about insider trading on prediction markets have grown almost as rapidly as their trading volumes.

I was recently interviewed about my practice by Vetta-Fi who host next weekend’s annual Exchange ETF conference in Las Vegas. You can read the interview here.

If you are not yet a financial planning or investment management client of Anglia Advisors and would like to explore becoming one, please feel free to reach out to arrange a complimentary no-obligation discovery call with me.

ARTICLE OF THE WEEK ..

The amount of 401(k) millionaires just hit a new high. Fidelity reported that the average balance held on their NetBenefits platform rose 11% to $146,100. A reminder that this is the average, NOT the median, which is much, much lower. Bigger balances are doing a lot of the heavy lifting here.

.. AND I QUOTE ..

“In a fog of war, markets tend to trade probabilities rather than shifting facts.”

Phil Serafino, Bloomberg.

LAST WEEK BY THE NUMBERS:

Last week’s S&P 500 market color courtesy of finviz.com

Last week’s best performing US sector: Energy (two biggest holdings: Exxon-Mobil, Chevron) ⬆︎ 1.2% for the week

Last week’s worst performing US sector: Materials (two biggest holdings: Linde, Newmont) ⬇︎ 6.7% for the week

* SPY, a US Large Cap ETF, tracks the S&P 500 index, made up of 500 stocks from a universe of the largest US companies. Its price fell 2.0% last week, is down 1.4% so far this year and ended the week 3.7% below its all-time record closing high (01/27/2026).

* IWM, a US Small Cap ETF, tracks the Russell 2000 index, made up of the bottom two-thirds in terms of company size of a universe of 3,000 of the largest US stocks. Its price fell 4.0% last week, is up 6.2% so far this year and ended the week 7.6% below its all-time record closing high (01/22/2026).

* VXUS, a Global Non-US ETF, tracks the MSCI ACWI Ex-US index, made up of over 8,500 of the largest names from a universe of stocks issued by companies from around the world excluding the United States, in both developed and emerging markets. Its price fell 7.0% last week, is up 3.4% so far this year and ended the week 7.5% below its all-time record closing high (02/25/2026).

INTEREST RATES:

* FED FUNDS RATE * ⬌ 3.625% (unchanged from a week ago)

* PRIME RATE ** ⬌ 6.75% (unchanged from a week ago)

* 3 MONTH TREASURY ⬆︎ 3.69% (3.67% a week ago)

* 2 YEAR TREASURY ⬆︎ 3.56% (3.38% a week ago)

* 5 YEAR TREASURY ⬆︎ 3.72% (3.51% a week ago)

* 10 YEAR TREASURY *** ⬆︎ 4.15% (3.97% a week ago)

* 20 YEAR TREASURY ⬆︎ 4.74% (4.57% a week ago)

* 30 YEAR TREASURY ⬆︎ 4.77% (4.64% a week ago)

Data courtesy of the Federal Reserve and the Department of the Treasury as of the market close on Friday

* Decided upon by the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee at periodic meetings 8x a year. Used as a basis for overnight interbank loans and for determining high yield savings interest rates.

** Wall Street Journal Prime Rate as of Friday’s close. Tending to move in lockstep with the Fed Funds Rate, this measure is used as a basis for determining certain consumer loan interest rates such as credit cards, auto loans, personal loans, home equity loans/lines of credit and securities-based lending.

*** Used as a basis for determining mortgage interest rates.

AVERAGE 30-YEAR FIXED MORTGAGE RATE:

* ⬆︎ 6.00%

One week ago: 5.98%, one month ago: 6.10%, one year ago: 6.63%

Data courtesy of the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey

INTEREST RATE EXPECTATIONS:

Where will the Fed Funds interest rate be after the next rate-…

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit simonbrady.substack.com

Upon further review, a recalibrating, not retreating, Trump decided at the weekend that his 10% supplemental temper tantrum tariff on the whole of planet Earth under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 was somehow not enough and he raised it to 15% and also vowed to use the manipulation of trade licenses to “do terrible things” to countries around the world, following the Supreme Court verdict that his signature IEEPA tariffs were illegal.

After quiet holiday-impacted sessions in Asia and Europe, US markets spent a winter storm-blitzed Monday trying to figure out the balance between the swirl of uncertainty generated by the ruling and the fact that, even with the weekend’s additional imposition, the effective average US tariff rate is now a bit lower and more time-limited than it was before the judgement.

Wall Street seemed paralyzed at the open and not just by the snowmaggedon in New York. But then the European Union announced a completely understandable pause in its ratification of the trade deal with the US “pending more clarity”. Software and e-commerce names were spooked by an apocalyptic Substack post from an independent research firm that went viral. IBM’s stock price had it worst day this century. The indexes decided that the only way was down and closed sharply lower.

Asian markets returned to normal on Tuesday after the extended lunar new year holiday and celebrated with gains. Fedex became the first company to sue the US government for a full refund of illegally-imposed tariffs and by the end of the week, 2,000 more lawsuits had been filed. The indexes recovered most of Monday’s losses but trading was cautious ahead of any possible outlandish announcements in Trump’s State of the Union speech later in the evening.

The president theatrically doubled down on tariffs without mentioning China once and downplayed the issue of affordability, neither of which are likely to do much to slow his rapidly-falling approval ratings.

Trump referenced Trump Child Accounts in his State of the Union speech. I recently created an explainer for these. You can read it here.

But there was nothing meaningfully new for Wall Street to chew on on Wednesday and stocks resumed their steady climb back out of Monday’s hole with Nvidia earnings on deck after the close, which have taken on the role as a sort of State of the Union for AI.

The company’s earnings beat expectations and it delivered its usual happy-clappy revenue outlook, but it wasn’t a huge wow and the vigorous two-day stock rebound ran out of steam when markets opened on Thursday. An unenthusiastic response to Nvidia’s numbers pushed the stock price down by over 5% which naturally turned the indexes into the red again and they closed significantly lower.

Stocks continued to tank on Friday after PPI data provided a bit of an inflation scare and AI bubble concerns persisted as Nvidia’s armor seems to have been pierced with another big price drop. Apple and Meta got battered too. A plunge in a number of financial stocks following the collapse of a major UK mortgage lender didn’t help either. The S&P 500 finished lower for the day, the week and the month and is pretty much only flat year to date.

As February came to a close, European stocks wrapped up their eighth straight month of gains, their longest such streak since 2013. The S&P 500, in contrast, suffered its biggest monthly drop since April. Treasury bonds had their best month in over a year as interest rates sank across the curve (the 10-year dropped below 4.00% last week) and the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage in the US fell below 6.00% for the first time in over three years.

Some other things I’m thinking about ..

* The four pillars of the large cap US stock rally since late 2022 (in order of importance: i) AI enthusiasm, ii) ongoing Fed Funds Rate cuts, iii) stable economic growth and iv) tariff clarity) are still just about in place if we look at them in a medium/longer term time frame, but they are all experiencing meaningful difficulties right now to one degree or another. This is why the rally in the major US indexes is stalling and assets are rotating into smaller capitalization and non-US holdings.

* Another feature of this rotation is that it is rewarding the stocks of companies with lots of capital assets that are costly to replicate and whose core businesses are less exposed to technological annihilation. Wall Street has of course come up with a snappy acronym for this group; HALO (Heavy Assets, Low Obsolescence). We are talking about names like McDonalds, Caterpillar, John Deere, Exxon-Mobil, Coca-Cola, Boeing and even the airlines.

* At the other end of the spectrum, SaaS (Software as a Service) stocks have become ground zero for concerns that AI could potentially destroy earnings power for certain market sectors and these stocks have been badly hurt this year. We are talking about names like Oracle, Palantir, Salesforce, Snowflake, Adobe, Workday, ServiceNow and many others.

* With the price crash from its peak reaching 50% in just four months, almost half the Bitcoin in circulation is now worth less than what its holder originally paid for it. That is why every attempted rally is dying on arrival as burned holders react to each bounce by aggressively selling, constantly killing any upward momentum. That capitulation has a compounding effect. Every sale at a loss removes a holder who might otherwise have been a future buyer.

I was recently interviewed by Vetta-Fi who host the annual Exchange ETF conference in Las Vegas about my practice. You can read the interview here.

If you are not yet a financial planning or investment management client of Anglia Advisors and would like to explore becoming one, please feel free to reach out to arrange a complimentary no-obligation discovery call with me.

ARTICLE OF THE WEEK ..

A checklist of what to do to be a successful long term investor .. and, very importantly, in what order.

.. AND I QUOTE ..

“CEOs are going to hold off, waiting for some form of clarity which they’re not going to get. This is chaos reigns.”

Bill George, former CEO of Medtronic

LAST WEEK BY THE NUMBERS:

Last week’s market color courtesy of finviz.com

Last week’s best performing US sector: Utilities (two biggest holdings: NextEra Energy, Southern Co.) ⬆︎ 3.2% for the week

Last week’s worst performing US sector: Financials (two biggest holdings: Berkshire Hathaway, JPMorgan) ⬇︎ 2.0% for the week

* SPY, a US Large Cap ETF, tracks the S&P 500 index, made up of 500 stocks from a universe of the largest US companies. Its price fell 0.5% last week, is up 0.6% so far this year and ended the week 1.7% below its all-time record closing high (01/27/2026).

* IWM, a US Small Cap ETF, tracks the Russell 2000 index, made up of the bottom two-thirds in terms of company size of a universe of 3,000 of the largest US stocks. Its price fell 1.2% last week, is up 6.2% so far this year and ended the week 3.8% below its all-time record closing high (01/22/2026).

* VXUS, a Global Non-US ETF, tracks the MSCI ACWI Ex-US index, made up of over 8,500 of the largest names from a universe of stocks issued by companies from around the world excluding the United States, in both developed and emerging markets. Its price rose 0.5% last week, is up 11.1% so far this year and ended the week 0.6% below its all-time record closing high (02/25/2026).

INTEREST RATES:

* FED FUNDS RATE * ⬌ 3.625% (unchanged from a week ago)

* PRIME RATE ** ⬌ 6.75% (unchanged from a week ago)

* 3 MONTH TREASURY ⬇︎ 3.67% (3.69% a week ago)

* 2 YEAR TREASURY ⬇︎ 3.38% (3.48% a week ago)

* 5 YEAR TREASURY ⬇︎ 3.51% (3.65% a week ago)

* 10 YEAR TREASURY *** ⬇︎ 3.97% (4.08% a week ago)

* 20 YEAR TREASURY ⬇︎ 4.57% (4.66% a week ago)

* 30 YEAR TREASURY ⬇︎ 4.64% (4.72% a week ago)

Data courtesy of the Federal Reserve and the Department of the Treasury as of the market close on Friday

* Decided upon by the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee at periodic meetings 8x a year. Used as a basis for overnight interbank loans and for determining …

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit simonbrady.substack.com

US markets were closed on Monday for Presidents’ Day after an unusually uneventful weekend on the newswires. Asian and European equities were quiet, but gold, silver and crypto all continued to skid lower and futures trading indicated a shaky open for Wall Street the next day.

The rotation out of certain tech sectors resumed on Tuesday morning and the indexes in general, but the NASDAQ in particular, stumbled out of the gate. Selected software, logistics and real estate names were still being viewed as potential longer term victims of AI and as such remained in Wall Street’s crosshairs at the opening bell.

A positive turnaround kicked in at lunchtime that saw the indexes eventually close unchanged on the day, but it was put down to dip-buyers and bottom-fishers swooping in rather than any real alleviation of the concerns that are at the root of the current price fragility. Meanwhile, European stocks reached more new all-time record highs, emphasizing the US stock market’s worst start to a year relative to other global stock markets since 1995.

We got a big economic data dump on Wednesday morning, showing that industrial production jumped by the most in almost a year, that housing starts hit a five-month high and that durable goods orders declined in line with expectations.

The minutes from the Fed’s most recent rate-setting meeting revealed that most committee members appear to have little appetite for cutting the Fed Funds Rate again any time soon, believing that downside risks to employment have moderated while the threat of persistent inflation remains, particularly following confirmation from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York of multiple reports showing that American consumers and businesses are bearing 90%+ of all tariff costs.

The bargain-hunting continued with some disproportionate buying of the most recently-damaged names with a sense that the tech punishment meted out by traders recently may have been overdone. The stock indexes finished moderately higher.

The US trade deficit has now ballooned to its widest level since the 1960s as data released on Thursday morning showed that exports fell hard and imports rocketed, pushing back hard against the happy-clappy narrative being pushed by the administration. Increased geopolitical concerns in and around Iran also dampened enthusiasm by spiking oil prices again and the indexes took a dive.

We learned from pre-market releases on Friday that PCE annual inflation in December rose to 2.9% and that the latest (shutdown-impacted) Q4 GDP growth estimate crashed from 4.4% to 1.4%.

But the big news came at 10am ET when the Supreme Court struck down and overturned most of Trump’s tariffs (all of those under the IEEPA statute) by ruling that he broke the law when he imposed them, opening the door to utter chaos as companies and countries seek to swiftly drain the US Treasury of up to $170 billion in refunds for illegally-charged tariffs and international trade deals were immediately invalidated.

A scorned Trump went completely off the rails, slamming Supreme Court justices as "fools and lapdogs" who had been influenced by foreign “slimeballs” and lashed out by instantly imposing a new snap 10% (non-IEEPA) tariff on the entire world, which he later raised to 15%.

Amazingly, stock prices barely responded, moving somewhat higher on the rather dubious idea that this was some kind of tariff reprieve while seemingly not showing much concern about the sheer mayhem that could be generated by the ruling and the notoriously thin-skinned and impulsive president's highly unpredictable potential responses, particularly right before a State Of The Union speech on Tuesday (where, interestingly, protocol dictates a handshake between Trump and all the Supreme Court justices!) and with the US military poised to strike Iran on his say-so.

The stock indexes closed in the green for the week but this upcoming five days has firestorm potential, including Nvidia’s earnings on Wednesday.

Some other things I’m thinking about ..

* Holding an index long term using an ETF or mutual fund is not as static an investment as you might think. Since 1985, 365 companies have lost their place in the S&P 500 and been replaced, an almost 75% turnover averaging about 9 ejections per year. This self-adjustment benefits long term investors over extended periods of time by adapting their holdings according to what is happening in the economy without a need for them to guesstimate when to make sell and buy decisions. Holding an individual stock is a completely static investment that involves market amateurs needing to play the fool’s game of making the kind of timing judgments that even highly-paid full-time market professionals routinely fail at.

* Alphabet/Google, Microsoft, Amazon and Meta have now lost a combined $1 trillion in value since their latest quarterly earnings releases. Wall Street is showing signs of falling out of love with some of the names that have worked so well for years as rising spending fuels fears that these companies are building too much, too fast. This doesn’t mean that the three-year old bull market in stocks is over or that the tech sector is suddenly a bad investment, but it does mean we should anticipate likely heightened volatility.

I was recently interviewed by Vetta-Fi who host the annual Exchange ETF conference in Las Vegas about my practice. You can read the interview here.

If you are not yet a financial planning or investment management client of Anglia Advisors and would like to explore becoming one, please feel free to reach out to arrange a complimentary no-obligation discovery call with me.

ARTICLE OF THE WEEK ..

“Replacing facts with noise is an awful way to manage your money.” Ritholtz’s Tony Isola urges us not to mistake discomfort for danger.

.. AND I QUOTE ..

“It’s no longer the case that the company that spends the most on AI infrastructure wins”

Tom Essaye, founder and president, Sevens Report

LAST WEEK BY THE NUMBERS:

Last week’s market color courtesy of finviz.com

Last week’s best performing US sector: Communication Services (two biggest holdings: Alphabet/Google, Meta) ⬆︎ 1.9% for the week

Last week’s worst performing US sector: Consumer Defensive (two biggest holdings: Walmart, Costco) ⬇︎ 1.8% for the week

* SPY, a US Large Cap ETF, tracks the S&P 500 index, made up of 500 stocks from a universe of the largest US companies. Its price rose 1.1% last week, is up 1.1% so far this year and ended the week 1.2% below its all-time record closing high (01/27/2026).

* IWM, a US Small Cap ETF, tracks the Russell 2000 index, made up of the bottom two-thirds in terms of company size of a universe of 3,000 of the largest US stocks. Its price rose 0.6% last week, is up 7.5% so far this year and ended the week 2.6% below its all-time record closing high (01/22/2026).

* VXUS, a Global Non-US ETF, tracks the MSCI ACWI Ex-US index, made up of over 8,500 of the largest names from a universe of stocks issued by companies from around the world excluding the United States, in both developed and emerging markets. Its price rose 1.2% last week, is up 10.5% so far this year and ended the week at its all-time record closing high.

INTEREST RATES:

* FED FUNDS RATE * ⬌ 3.625% (unchanged from a week ago)

* PRIME RATE ** ⬌ 6.75% (unchanged from a week ago)

* 3 MONTH TREASURY ⬆︎ 3.69% (3.68% a week ago)

* 2 YEAR TREASURY ⬆︎ 3.48% (3.40% a week ago)

* 5 YEAR TREASURY ⬆︎ 3.65% (3.61% a week ago)

* 10 YEAR TREASURY *** ⬆︎ 4.08% (4.04% a week ago)

* 20 YEAR TREASURY ⬆︎ 4.66% (4.64% a week ago)

* 30 YEAR TREASURY ⬆︎ 4.72% (4.69% a week ago)

Data courtesy of the Federal Reserve and the Department of the Treasury as of the market close on Friday

* Decided upon by the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee at periodic meetings 8x a year. Used as a basis for overnight interbank loans and for determining high yield savings interest rates.

** Wall Street Journal Prime Rate as of Friday’s close. Tending to move in lockstep with the Fed Funds Rate, this measure is used as a basis fo…

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit simonbrady.substack.com

A jam-packed week of major economic data and more earnings reports began on Monday with Japanese stocks reaching all-time record highs after the weekend’s landslide election victory of prime minister Takaichi’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party. Meanwhile, the sprawling Epstein scandal engulfed Commerce Secretary Lutnick and the related political crisis in the UK drove local interest rates meaningfully higher.

The feel-good vibes from the previous Friday’s dramatic stock turnaround on Wall Street continued into Monday’s session with the bulls back in control and the indexes made up more of the ground lost during the three-day tech wreck of February 3rd-5th, pulling the S&P 500 back to within touching distance of yet another all-time record high.

After another upbeat session in Asia where stocks are outperforming US equities by the most this century, a mixed premarket on Wall Street on Tuesday saw underwhelming earnings from Coca-Cola, a solid report from Spotify and a disappointing December Retail Sales number.

Stocks seemed undecided about how to proceed, obviously totally dismissing Trump’s idiotic prediction of a 15%+ GDP increase this year (it’s currently running at a historically quite high level of 4.4%). In the end the indexes went nowhere, closing fractionally lower. Interest rates continued to sink.

Jobs Report day dawned on Wednesday and when the numbers dropped pre-market, we got a positive blowout which pushed back on the prior week’s gloomy labor market statistics that had helped contribute to the mini-crash in the indexes.

New job creation in January obliterated estimates (with particularly robust employment in education and healthcare) and the overall unemployment rate fell to 4.3%. This signal of economic strength initially boosted stock prices and interest rates briefly spiked back higher as the data poured cold water on the need for any more imminent Fed Funds Rate cuts.

But attention quickly shifted back from trading headlines to more general themes like where we are on tariffs (six House Republicans voted with Democrats to block Trump’s tariffs on Canada), earnings durability and capital expenditure plans (especially on AI). The indexes pulled back to where they started and then flatlined for the rest of the day.

European stocks reached new all-time highs overnight on Thursday. Before US markets got under way, we got results from Cisco which showed thin margins and included a downbeat outlook and some pretty dire numbers from Coinbase and both stocks were heavily punished, but McDonalds impressed with its report. The number of existing home sales plummeted.

The indexes got off to another sluggish start before collapsing in the afternoon to close considerably lower on growing fears of AI disruption of industries like real estate, law, media, travel, logistics and financial services as well as something of a reassessment of the previous day’s jobs data. Meanwhile, gold, silver and crypto began to crap out again.

Shutdown-distorted January CPI inflation data was finally released on Friday morning and came in pretty much as expected with the annualized rate easing to 2.4%, mostly driven by a fall in gas prices and a stabilization in shelter costs but tariff-impacted prices continue to increase at an alarming pace.

Nevertheless, a sense of having dodged an inflation bullet pushed stocks up early on before the indexes fizzled out to finish flat for the day but down for the week ahead of another long weekend. Bonds had their best week since October as two-year and ten-year interest rates tumbled (see INTEREST RATES below).

Some things I’m thinking about ..

* Traders are no longer mindlessly taking the AI story at face value and are starting to respond by hiding out in old school names from sectors likely to be less penetrated by AI, such as Consumer Defensive, Industrials and Materials.

* AI was supposed to be a slam dunk trade. However, it is now becoming a potential challenge for investors, not so much in terms of the firms building it out, but to the stocks of some major companies whose underlying business models are threatened by it.

* Developing AI skepticism (described by one analyst as a gradual change from “AI-phoria to AI-phobia”) is also impacting the relative global performance of the tech-dependent overall US stock market (as represented by the S&P 500) which currently sits in a rather sad 69th position in this year’s league table of 92 stock indexes from around the world (South Korea is top of the pile).

* Delinquency rates on loans ranging from mortgages to credit cards rose to their highest level since 2017, now standing at 4.8% of all outstanding US household debt. The increase was mainly driven by rising defaults in mortgage payments among low-income and younger borrowers as well as the resumption of reporting on student loan repayments.

I was recently interviewed by Vetta-Fi who host the annual Exchange ETF conference in Las Vegas about my practice. You can read the interview here.

If you are not yet a financial planning or investment management client of Anglia Advisors and would like to explore becoming one, please feel free to reach out to arrange a complimentary no-obligation discovery call with me.

ARTICLE OF THE WEEK ..

“When you admit that you don’t know the future, it’s a lot easier to deal with it when it doesn’t go as planned.”

Ritholtz’s Nick Maggiulli on why the consensus can often be wrong and how to stay onside when this happens.

.. AND I QUOTE ..

“You just have to be prepared to be wrong and understand that your ego had better not depend on being proven right.”

Peter Bernstein, financial historian, economist and educator

LAST WEEK BY THE NUMBERS:

Last week’s market color courtesy of finviz.com

Last week’s best performing US sector: Utilities (two biggest holdings: NextEra Energy, Southern Co.) ⬆︎ 7.3% for the week

Last week’s worst performing US sector: Financials (two biggest holdings: Berkshire Hathaway, JPMorgan Chase) ⬇︎ 4.8% for the week

* SPY, a US Large Cap ETF, tracks the S&P 500 index, made up of 500 stocks from a universe of the largest US companies. Its price fell 1.3% last week, is flat so far this year and ended the week 2.3% below its all-time record closing high (01/27/2026).

* IWM, a US Small Cap ETF, tracks the Russell 2000 index, made up of the bottom two-thirds in terms of company size of a universe of 3,000 of the largest US stocks. Its price fell 0.8% last week, is up 6.8% so far this year and ended the week 3.2% below its all-time record closing high (01/22/2026).

* VXUS, a Global Non-US ETF, tracks the MSCI ACWI Ex-US index, made up of over 8,500 of the largest names from a universe of stocks issued by companies from around the world excluding the United States, in both developed and emerging markets. Its price rose 1.7% last week, is up 9.2% so far this year and ended the week 1.0% below its all-time record closing high (02/11/2026).

INTEREST RATES:

* FED FUNDS RATE * ⬌ 3.625% (unchanged from a week ago)

* PRIME RATE ** ⬌ 6.75% (unchanged from a week ago)

* 3 MONTH TREASURY ⬌ 3.68% (3.68% a week ago)

* 2 YEAR TREASURY ⬇︎ 3.40% (3.50% a week ago)

* 5 YEAR TREASURY ⬇︎ 3.61% (3.76% a week ago)

* 10 YEAR TREASURY *** ⬇︎ 4.04% (4.22% a week ago)

* 20 YEAR TREASURY ⬇︎ 4.64% (4.80% a week ago)

* 30 YEAR TREASURY ⬇︎ 4.69% (4.85% a week ago)

Data courtesy of the Federal Reserve and the Department of the Treasury as of the market close on Friday

* Decided upon by the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee at periodic meetings 8x a year. Used as a basis for overnight interbank loans and for determining high yield savings interest rates.

** Wall Street Journal Prime Rate as of Friday’s close. Tending to move in lockstep with the Fed Funds Rate, this measure is used as a basis for determining certain consumer loan interest rates such as credit cards, auto loans, personal loans, home equity loans/lines of credit and securities-based lending.

*** Used as a basis for determining mortgage interest rates and some business loans

AVERAGE 30-YEAR FIXED MOR…

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit simonbrady.substack.com

The weekend’s headlines were dominated by yet more repulsive Epstein slime which has thankfully (so far) not seeped into the consideration of US financial markets, although UK Prime Minister Starmer is certainly feeling the heat about probable related diplomatic cover-ups. The recent gold and silver party came to a crunching halt and prices utterly collapsed in what was the biggest precious metals crash in modern history.

The carnage extended to crypto which has finally been exposed as nothing more than a speculative asset. Bitcoin is now in complete free-fall, having crashed by 50% in three months and by 27% already in 2026. The price is well below where it was when its supposed champion Trump was elected. Over a trillion dollars in value has been lost in crypto since October.

However, stock markets had earnings squarely in focus on Monday, recovering strongly following a three-day pullback from record highs to start a week containing more Mag 7 and other big name reporting - but Friday’s scheduled Jobs Report fell victim to the shutdown with the Bureau of Labor Statistics temporarily closed.

Traders also continued to digest the nomination of Kevin Warsh to head up the Federal Reserve in May who is seen as perhaps more inclined than the other candidates to make a stand against inflation. Palantir and Samsung impressed with their earnings reports. The indexes finished nicely higher.

Software names got badly spooked on Tuesday morning by an Anthropic product release and Monday’s gains in the major indexes were instantly wiped out and things only went further downhill from there, especially for the NASDAQ as tech names were heavily pounded.

More earnings reports on Wednesday morning, with Wall Street handing out flowers to Eli Lilly but brutally punishing AMD and Novo Nordisk. The nagging doubts about AI spending and financing that had triggered Tuesday’s tech wipeout would not go away and the major indexes found it tough to mount any kind of meaningful comeback, eventually falling back again to close in the red with AI and software names once again the most damaged as the violent rotation out of 2025’s winners and into more defensive and value-oriented sectors picked up speed.

Alphabet/Google reported decent Q4 earnings after the close but announced plans to double its AI spend to a level far higher than analysts expected and Wall Street is currently fixated on capital expenditure when it comes to tech companies. The after-market took the stock lower.

Interest rates were held steady in the Euro Zone and the UK overnight on Thursday. Private surveys and government JOLTS data showed the most US layoffs since 2009, a steep decline in job openings and a jump in weekly Jobless Claims which didn’t bode well for the upcoming delayed Jobs Report.

The tech rout deepened, accelerated by earnings-driven declines from index heavyweights Google and Qualcomm. After a brief hiatus, precious metals and crypto resumed their colossal price drops. This time there was nowhere to hide and by the close there was blood red spattered everywhere across trading screens.

Any hopes that Amazon’s report after the bell would stop the pain were dashed as the week’s steady drumbeat of troubling news continued. The earnings came in largely as anticipated but traders got déjà-vu when the company announced projected expenditure that blew through expectations and the stock price crumbled.

The indexes rebounded hard on Friday despite Amazon’s meltdown as dip buyers, bottom fishers and bargain hunters seemed to decide that, for the time being at least, enough was enough and swooped in to pick up some of the most beaten-down names, driving the indexes solidly higher by the close, with the S&P 500 managing to close out the week barely changed and the more tech-light Small Caps and international stocks actually finishing with weekly gains. Even crypto and precious metals temporarily paused their relentless nosedives.

The postponed Job Report will now come out this coming Wednesday and the latest CPI inflation numbers on Friday, making the upcoming week a jumbo one for important economic data.

I was recently interviewed by Vetta-Fi who host the annual Exchange ETF conference in Las Vegas about my practice. You can read the interview here.

If you are not yet a financial planning or investment management client of Anglia Advisors and would like to explore becoming one, please feel free to reach out to arrange a complimentary no-obligation discovery call with me.

ARTICLE OF THE WEEK ..

How do you stack up? The average/median net worth by age in America.

.. AND I QUOTE ..

“Things that have never happened before happen all the time.”

Morgan Housel, author and co-founder of The Collaborative Fund

LAST WEEK BY THE NUMBERS:

Last week’s market color courtesy of finviz.com

Last week’s best performing US sector: Consumer Defensive (two biggest holdings: Walmart, Costco) ⬆︎ 5.3% for the week

Last week’s worst performing US sector: Communication Services (two biggest holdings: Google, Meta) ⬇︎ 3.6% for the week

* SPY, a US Large Cap ETF, tracks the S&P 500 index, made up of 500 stocks from a universe of the largest US companies. Its price fell 0.2% last week, is up 1.3% so far this year and ended the week 1.0% below its all-time record closing high (01/27/2026).

* IWM, a US Small Cap ETF, tracks the Russell 2000 index, made up of the bottom two-thirds in terms of company size of a universe of 3,000 of the largest US stocks. Its price rose 2.1% last week, is up 7.7% so far this year and ended the week 2.4% below its all-time record closing high (01/22/2026).

* VXUS, a Global Non-US ETF, tracks the MSCI ACWI Ex-US index, made up of over 8,500 of the largest names from a universe of stocks issued by companies from around the world excluding the United States, in both developed and emerging markets. Its price rose 1.7% last week, is up 7.4% so far this year and ended the week 0.5% below its all-time record closing high (01/27/2026).

INTEREST RATES:

* FED FUNDS RATE * ⬌ 3.625% (unchanged from a week ago)

* PRIME RATE ** ⬌ 6.75% (unchanged from a week ago)

* 3 MONTH TREASURY ⬆︎ 3.68% (3.67% a week ago)

* 2 YEAR TREASURY ⬇︎ 3.50% (3.52% a week ago)

* 5 YEAR TREASURY ⬇︎ 3.76% (3.79% a week ago)

* 10 YEAR TREASURY *** ⬇︎ 4.22% (4.26% a week ago)

* 20 YEAR TREASURY ⬇︎ 4.80% (4.82% a week ago)

* 30 YEAR TREASURY ⬇︎ 4.85% (4.87% a week ago)

Data courtesy of the Federal Reserve and the Department of the Treasury as of the market close on Friday

* Decided upon by the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee at periodic meetings 8x a year. Used as a basis for overnight interbank loans and for determining high yield savings interest rates.

** Wall Street Journal Prime Rate as of Friday’s close. Tending to move in lockstep with the Fed Funds Rate, this measure is used as a basis for determining certain consumer loan interest rates such as credit cards, auto loans, personal loans, home equity loans/lines of credit and securities-based lending.

*** Used as a basis for determining mortgage interest rates and some business loans

AVERAGE 30-YEAR FIXED MORTGAGE RATE:

* ⬆︎ 6.11%

One week ago: 6.10%, one month ago: 6.16%, one year ago: 6.89%

Data courtesy of the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey

INTEREST RATE EXPECTATIONS:

Where will the Fed Funds interest rate be after the next rate-setting meeting on March 18th?

* Unchanged from now .. ⬇︎ 77% probability (85% a week ago)

* 0.25% lower than now .. ⬆︎ 23% probability (15% a week ago)

With seven more rate-setting meetings in 2026, what is the most commonly-expected number of remaining 0.25% Fed Funds interest rate cuts this year?

* ⬌ Two (unchanged from a week ago)

Data courtesy of CME FedWatch Tool

All data based on the Fed Funds interest rate (currently 3.625%). Calculated from Federal Funds futures prices as of the market close on Friday.

PERCENT OF S&P 500 STOCKS ABOVE THEIR OWN 200-DAY MOVING AVERAGE:

* ⬆︎ 67%

One week ago: 63%, one month ago: 63%, one year ago: 57%

Data courtesy of MacroMicro as of Friday’s market close

This widely-u…

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit simonbrady.substack.com