April 18, 2024

Another Reminder to Ignore the Forecasts

24 minutes

While the debt doomers circle, we’ll examine why no one is good at forecasting and why widely acceptable notions of cross-asset correlations are wrong. We’ll also focus on the market's strengths and discuss the incredible power of America’s dollar, wages, and efficient energy output.

Key Takeaways

[00:17] - Inflation Update + shelter’s outsized effect

[06:33] - Disinflation + the debt-doom loop

[09:40] - The power of the US: the Dollar, our wages, energy production

[13:36] - The incredible efficiency of modern oil/energy markets

[15:09] - What’s happened recently when the SP has broken a positive trend line

[16:16] - The surprising market reaction to Iran’s missile attack

Links

Bilello: The Start of a Correction (March CPI Data)

Apartment List National Rent Report (April)

Grannis: Moderate growth and disinflation still alive and well

Weniger: A massive wage arbitrage has opened between the US and its competitors

USA has switched from large importer of oil & gas to a significant exporter

Carmel: We're not in a 1970s-style oil-inflation spiral

Detrick: S&P 500 broke the trend line from late October. What’s next?

Carmel: We are objectively terrible at forecasting rates

Roche: Why savers are in hog heaven

Connect with our hosts

Doug Stokes

Greg Stokes

Stokes Family Office

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Disclosure

The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

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